Alkermes plc (ALKS)
NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-09-04
$46.10-1.66%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-09-04
Warn: Management is running behind on a stated commitment.
Alkermes aims for $1.735B revenue in 2026. Sales grew 28% last year. They plan to advance LUMRYZ for sleep disorder. The company has stable management and steady growth.
Cash flow dropped sharply from $170M to negative $166M. Earnings per share fell recently. The CEO is changing soon, which may cause uncertainty.
The price is about 23% above our fair value near $45. Analysts expect about 14% revenue growth, which we agree with.
Breaks if: Operating cash flow remains negative beyond FY27
Breaks if: Failure to file sNDA for LUMRYZ by end 2026
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment is characterized as a durable compounder with a mixed execution quality. The current thesis state is intact, supported by strong revenue growth and positive clinical developments, but management execution remains volatile.
The market appears to be pricing in a durable premium compared to peers, indicating high expectations for ALKS's performance. There is a slight expectations gap, suggesting that while the stock is seen as justified, it is considered expensive relative to its peers.
Fundamentals are likely to show continued revenue growth, particularly from proprietary products, as management focuses on advancing clinical programs. However, there is a moderate risk due to recent earnings surprises and the potential for guidance cuts.
The thesis hinges on management's ability to execute on clinical development and revenue growth while navigating potential macroeconomic challenges. Key forward scenarios include the performance of sector bellwethers and the impact of economic indicators like job reports on market sentiment.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. Alkermes reported a positive earnings beat recently. The company advanced its alixorexton clinical development to phase 3. This progress boosts expectations for revenue growth across its commercial portfolio. There are no new threats to the thesis at this time.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Develop LUMRYZ for idiopathic hypersomnia including positive phase 3 results and planned sNDA filing by end of 2026.
Stated as a priority in 3 quarters from 2025-Q4 to 2026-Q2. Management reported positive phase 3 results for LUMRYZ in idiopathic hypersomnia and plans to file a supplemental NDA by end of 2026. LUMRYZ net sales are guided between $315M and $335M for 2026, reflecting delivering progress on this priority.
“LUMRYZ revenues $96.6M including inventory benefit; positive topline results in idiopathic hypersomnia phase 3 study.”
“Positive phase 3 results for LUMRYZ in idiopathic hypersomnia; plan to file sNDA by end of 2026.”
“Acquisition of Avadel strengthens leadership in sleep medicine with LUMRYZ commercial product.”
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $1.5B in FY26
Alkermes aims to drive strong performance across its portfolio of commercial products, including LUMRYZ.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, ALKS's performance will depend on its execution in clinical programs and market conditions. Not investment advice.