Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Alkermes plc (ALKS)
NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-11-04
$44.54-2.94%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.53 → 0.56 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 9 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 9; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ALKS yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Improve operating cash flow from negative $165.7M | A supporting condition in Alkermes plc's published investment case. The stated target is Operating cash flow improves to positive by FY27. | Improving | Operating cash flow remains negative beyond FY27 | Cash from operations: $145.183M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating cash flow improves to positive by FY27. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Jul 28, 2026145,183,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a commercial-growth and clinical-development story, with both established products and programs that may support longer-term growth. The thesis remains intact, though the signal has recently shifted from mildly favorable to mixed and confidence is medium.
ALKS is valued at a durable premium to peers, and the evidence tags expectations as stretched. The premium suggests the market already assumes sustained growth, but confidence in the valuation model is low and the expectations gap is modest.
Near term, recent results are strong: revenue rose to $496.0 million in 2026-Q2, LYBALVI revenue grew 12% year over year, and adjusted EBITDA increased. Profitability is less clear because GAAP net income fell to $0.5 million; erratic earnings surprises and possible guidance cuts are risks.
Over the multi-year view, key factors include progress in alixorexton studies, the planned LUMRYZ supplemental filing by year-end 2026, and 2027 data from the ALKS 7290 study. Near term, guidance, broader employment weakness, and earnings trends at healthcare peers could shift the setup.
The business has growing revenue and an active clinical pipeline, but uneven management and earnings signals challenge an already stretched valuation. The multi-year thesis is intact, with execution and clinical progress still key. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
File supplemental NDA for LUMRYZ by end of 2026 | They plan to advance LUMRYZ for sleep disorder. | Intact | Failure to file sNDA for LUMRYZ by end 2026 | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue reaches about $1.735 billion in 2026 | A primary condition in Alkermes plc's published investment case. The stated target is ~$1.735B. | Intact | Revenue falls below $1.5B in FY26 | Revenue: $480.132M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$1.735B. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 3, 2026480,132,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.64 → $0.56 · observed estimates
$1.89B → $1.92B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.64 | $1,888,654,330 | 4 / 17 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.64 | $1,888,654,330 | 4 / 17 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.64 | $1,888,654,330 | 4 / 17 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.64 | $1,888,654,330 | 4 / 17 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.64 | $1,888,654,330 | 4 / 17 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.64 | $1,888,654,330 | 4 / 17 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.64 | $1,891,795,510 | 4 / 17 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.83 | $1,944,583,430 | 4 / 17 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.83 | $1,944,583,430 | 4 / 17 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.83 | $1,944,583,430 | 4 / 17 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.83 | $1,944,583,430 | 4 / 17 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.83 | $1,944,583,430 | 4 / 17 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.83 | $1,944,583,430 | 4 / 17 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.83 | $1,944,583,430 | 4 / 17 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.68 | $1,944,828,008 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.83 | $1,944,583,430 | 4 / 17 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.83 | $1,944,583,430 | 4 / 17 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.83 | $1,944,583,430 | 4 / 17 |
| 2026-08-11 | $1.83 | $1,944,583,430 | 4 / 17 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.83 | $1,944,583,430 | 4 / 17 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.83 | $1,944,583,430 | 4 / 17 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.68 | $1,944,828,008 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.68 | $1,944,828,008 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.68 | $1,944,828,008 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.68 | $1,944,828,008 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.68 | $1,944,828,008 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.68 | $1,944,828,008 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.68 | $1,944,828,008 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.65 | $1,936,474,951 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.65 | $1,936,474,951 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.65 | $1,936,474,951 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.65 | $1,936,474,951 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.65 | $1,936,474,951 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.65 | $1,936,474,951 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.65 | $1,936,474,951 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.65 | $1,936,474,951 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.65 | $1,936,474,951 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.65 | $1,936,474,951 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.65 | $1,936,474,951 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.65 | $1,936,474,951 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.65 | $1,936,474,951 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.68 | $1,928,731,229 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.68 | $1,928,731,229 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.68 | $1,928,731,229 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.68 | $1,928,731,229 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.68 | $1,928,731,229 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.68 | $1,928,731,229 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.68 | $1,928,731,229 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.68 | $1,928,731,229 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.68 | $1,928,731,229 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.68 | $1,928,731,229 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.68 | $1,928,731,229 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.68 | $1,928,731,229 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.68 | $1,928,731,229 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.68 | $1,928,731,229 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.68 | $1,928,731,229 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.68 | $1,928,731,229 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.68 | $1,928,748,508 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.68 | $1,928,748,508 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.68 | $1,928,748,508 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.61 | $1,928,731,296 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.61 | $1,928,731,296 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.61 | $1,928,731,296 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.53 | $1,926,722,690 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.53 | $1,926,722,690 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.53 | $1,926,722,690 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.53 | $1,926,722,690 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.53 | $1,926,722,690 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.53 | $1,926,722,690 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.53 | $1,926,722,690 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.53 | $1,926,722,690 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.53 | $1,926,722,690 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.53 | $1,926,722,690 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.53 | $1,926,722,690 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.53 | $1,926,722,690 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.53 | $1,926,722,690 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.53 | $1,926,722,690 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.54 | $1,927,128,662 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.54 | $1,927,015,494 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.54 | $1,927,015,494 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.54 | $1,927,015,494 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.54 | $1,927,015,494 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.54 | $1,927,015,494 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.54 | $1,927,015,494 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.54 | $1,927,015,494 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.54 | $1,927,015,494 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.55 | $1,929,250,289 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.55 | $1,929,250,289 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.55 | $1,929,250,289 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.55 | $1,929,183,622 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.55 | $1,929,183,622 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.55 | $1,929,183,622 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.55 | $1,929,183,622 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.55 | $1,929,183,621 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.55 | $1,929,183,621 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.55 | $1,929,183,621 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.55 | $1,929,210,093 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.55 | $1,929,210,093 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.54 | $1,929,182,315 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.54 | $1,929,182,315 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.54 | $1,929,182,315 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.54 | $1,929,182,315 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.54 | $1,929,182,315 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.56 | $1,919,591,687 | 9 / 13 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 15 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 3 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 4 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.