Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Allogene Therapeutics, Inc. (ALLO)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$1.09-8.40%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ALLO yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Successful CEO transition to Zachary Roberts | A supporting condition in Allogene Therapeutics, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Stable leadership with positive strategic progress. | Improving | CEO transition leads to strategic setbacks or loss of confidence | Qualitative: CEO transition stable, RMAT/Fast Track granted Zachary Roberts appointed CEO May 2026. FDA granted RMAT and Fast Track for cema-cel in Aug 2026, supporting trial expansion. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is speculative growth, not an established earnings compounder: the company is loss-making and depends on clinical programs advancing. The thesis is in a watch state, with recent financial performance below its industry cohort but not newly broken.
ALLO is valued at an 8.86% premium to peers, while model confidence is low and the expectations gap is 3.34. The evidence points to an expensive valuation, but not a broader combination of expensive valuation, weak fundamentals, and turbulent conditions; the premium appears tied to the potential value of its programs.
Near term, management has continued to advance the ALPHA3 trial and ALLO-329 study, with an ALLO-329 clinical update expected in Q4 2026. Progress is mixed: operating expense guidance rose, and quarterly operating losses were about $46 million in both Q1 and Q2 2026. A guidance cut remains a key risk; healthcare-sector momentum has improved, but weakening employment could weigh on cyclical healthcare names.
The multi-year view hinges on whether ALPHA3 enrollment and its planned interim analysis stay on schedule, and whether ALLO-329 shows meaningful clinical progress with favorable tolerability. Spending discipline matters too, since higher expenses could extend losses; sector earnings momentum is a supportive but less company-specific factor.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, ALLO's thesis rests on clinical execution and expense control, while loss-making operations and elevated risk remain important constraints. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Manage operating expenses within $210M-$225M range in 2026 | Allogene aims to control operating expenses within $210M-$225M in 2026. | Intact | operating expenses exceed $225 million in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Guidance for operating expense in 2026 is expected to be approximately $165 million.” “Based upon our current forecast for the overall timing of the ALPHA3 program, we are modestly increasing our guidance for operating cash expense in 2026 from approximately $150 million to $165 million.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Achieve revenue near $6 billion in 2026 | A primary condition in Allogene Therapeutics, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~6 billion USD. | Broken | revenue falls significantly below $6 billion in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.76 → $-0.64 · observed estimates
$0.01B → $0.01B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.76 | $11,625,800 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.76 | $11,625,800 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.76 | $11,625,800 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.76 | $11,625,800 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.76 | $11,625,800 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.68 | $14,594,750 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.68 | $14,594,750 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.68 | $14,594,750 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.68 | $14,594,750 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.68 | $14,594,750 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.68 | $14,594,750 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.68 | $14,594,750 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.68 | $14,594,750 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.68 | $14,594,750 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.76 | $11,625,800 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.68 | $14,594,750 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.68 | $14,594,750 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.68 | $14,594,750 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-11 | $-0.68 | $14,594,750 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.68 | $14,594,750 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.68 | $14,594,750 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.76 | $11,625,800 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.76 | $11,625,800 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.76 | $11,625,800 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.76 | $11,625,800 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.76 | $11,625,800 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.76 | $11,625,800 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.76 | $11,625,800 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.64 | $12,085,800 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.64 | $12,085,800 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.64 | $13,428,667 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.64 | $13,428,667 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.64 | $13,428,667 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.64 | $13,428,667 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.64 | $13,428,667 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.64 | $13,428,667 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.64 | $13,428,667 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.64 | $13,428,667 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.64 | $13,428,667 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.64 | $13,428,667 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.64 | $13,428,667 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.64 | $13,428,667 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.64 | $13,428,667 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.64 | $13,428,667 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.64 | $13,428,667 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.64 | $13,428,667 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.64 | $13,428,667 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.64 | $13,428,667 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.64 | $13,428,667 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.64 | $13,428,667 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.64 | $13,428,667 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.64 | $13,428,667 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.64 | $13,428,667 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.64 | $13,428,667 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.64 | $13,428,667 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.64 | $13,428,667 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.64 | $13,428,667 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.64 | $13,428,667 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.64 | $13,428,667 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.64 | $13,428,667 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.64 | $13,428,667 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.64 | $13,428,667 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.64 | $13,428,667 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.64 | $13,428,667 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.64 | $13,428,667 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.64 | $13,428,667 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.64 | $13,428,667 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.64 | $13,428,667 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.64 | $13,428,667 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.64 | $13,431,111 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.64 | $13,431,111 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.64 | $13,431,111 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.64 | $13,431,111 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.64 | $13,431,111 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.64 | $13,431,111 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.64 | $13,431,111 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.64 | $13,431,111 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.64 | $13,431,111 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.64 | $13,431,111 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.64 | $13,431,111 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.64 | $13,431,111 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.64 | $13,431,111 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.64 | $13,431,111 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.64 | $13,431,111 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.64 | $13,431,111 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.64 | $13,431,111 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.64 | $13,431,111 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.64 | $13,431,111 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.64 | $13,431,111 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.64 | $13,431,111 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.64 | $13,431,111 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.64 | $13,431,111 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.64 | $13,431,111 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.64 | $13,431,111 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.64 | $13,431,111 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.64 | $13,431,111 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.64 | $13,431,111 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.64 | $13,431,111 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.64 | $13,431,111 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.64 | $13,431,111 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.64 | $13,431,111 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.64 | $13,431,111 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.64 | $13,431,111 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.64 | $13,431,111 | 6 / 7 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.