ALLARITY THERAPEUTICS INC (ALLR)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$1.42-0.70%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ALLR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
A comparable price-assumption read is not available for this company.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 398 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ALLR — officer change
Dated 2026-06-02
The filing describes an amended and restated management services agreement for the CEO, Thomas H. Jensen.
Why it matters: A drop in sector revenue growth could impact ALLR's performance. It signals broader market challenges.
Worry ifSector revenue growth falls below its median rate of growth.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth is still above the average rate. This shows ongoing strength.
Why it matters: Improving cash flow shows the company is managing expenses well. It can boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifQ2 cash flow from operations improves year over year, showing less cash burn.
Worry ifQ2 cash flow from operations got worse compared to last year. This shows cash problems.
Why it matters: Successful capital raising supports the company's funding needs and growth plans. It shows financial health.
Supportive ifNew capital raising over $6M is expected next quarter.
Worry ifNo new capital raising announcements or a decline in cash flow.
Why it matters: Better operating income means the company is controlling costs. This can help cut losses.
Supportive ifOperating income improves to less negative than -2.7M in Q2 2026.
Worry ifOperating income worsens or stays at -2.7M or worse in Q2 2026.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$294 on $10,000 · ±2.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $790 loss on $10,000 · 7.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,888 loss on $10,000 · 58.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The success of the DRP® diagnostic is key to Allarity's strategy. It helps identify patients who will benefit most from stenoparib.
Supportive ifNews about new partnerships or trial results that prove the DRP® test works well.
Worry ifNot getting new partnerships or bad trial results about the DRP® test.
Why it matters: Finishing enrollment is important for getting stenoparib approved by the FDA. It shows we are making progress.
Supportive ifThe Phase 2 trial for advanced ovarian cancer will end by September 2026.
Worry ifIf enrollment is not done by September 2026, the trial will be delayed.
Why it matters: Finishing this campaign is key. It helps move stenoparib to important trials and FDA approval.
Supportive ifThe Phase 3 campaign for stenoparib ends on September 30, 2026.
Worry ifThe manufacturing campaign is delayed beyond Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Trial results will show how well the drug works for advanced ovarian cancer. Good results could help investors feel more confident.
Watch forGood clinical data shows that stenoparib helps patients live longer.
Also watch forData shows no real gain in survival with this treatment compared to current options.
Why it matters: Improving operating expenses will show the company is managing costs well. This is key for cash flow.
Supportive ifQ2 operating expenses decrease year over year by more than 10%.
Worry ifOperating expenses increase year over year or stay flat.
Why it matters: Managing cash flow well is key for Allarity's daily work. It affects their ability to pay for clinical trials.
Worry ifNews of more cash reserves or lower operating costs.
Less concerning ifReports show cash burn is higher than expected or big operational losses.
Why it matters: Finishing the manufacturing campaign is key. It helps move stenoparib to important trials.
Supportive ifThe Phase 3 manufacturing campaign will end by September 30, 2026.
Worry ifThe manufacturing campaign is delayed beyond Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Getting FDA approval for stenoparib is key for Allarity's growth. Approval helps their drug and test.
Supportive ifA key trial is starting or there is an FDA meeting about stenoparib's approval.
Worry ifA delay in starting the trial or bad feedback from the FDA about approval.
Why it matters: New capital raises can support ongoing operations and growth plans. It signals financial health.
Supportive ifA new financing deal or capital raise over $5M is announced.
Worry ifNo new announcements about raising money and cash reserves are going down.
Why it matters: The ESMO presentation will show the ongoing Phase 2 trial and its design. This will affect investor confidence.
Watch forThe audience gives positive feedback or shows interest in the trial’s design and reasons.
Also watch forThere is a lack of engagement or negative feedback on the trial presentation.
Why it matters: FDA feedback will guide the next steps for stenoparib's development and approval.
Supportive ifManagement shares good news from the FDA about stenoparib's Fast Track status.
Worry ifFDA issues concerns or delays regarding the Fast Track designation.
Why it matters: Watching cash burn will show if Allarity can keep running while doing trials.
Worry ifQuarterly cash burn rate remains below $2 million.
Less concerning ifCash burn rate exceeds $3 million in any quarter.