Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ALNY)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$266.11+0.61%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ALNY
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 4.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 32.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 27.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 398 industry peers
ALNY — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-30
shall be deemed to be furnished, and not filed: 99.1 Press Release dated July 30, 2026 . 104 Cover Page Interactive Data File (embedded within the Inline XBRL document). SIGNATURE Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the Registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized. Date: July 30, 2026 ALNYLAM PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. By: /s/ Jeffrey V. Poulton Jeffrey V. Poulton Executive Vice President, Chief Finan…
Why it matters: Meeting or exceeding this target is key to achieving the full-year revenue goal.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue reported at or above $1.225B.
Worry ifQ2 revenue reported below $1.225B.
Why it matters: A strong launch and sales in China could greatly increase overall revenues.
Supportive ifThere are good updates on AMVUTTRA's launch and sales in China.
Worry ifThere are bad updates or delays about AMVUTTRA's launch in China.
Why it matters: Faster enrollment could signal strong interest and potential success in the ATTR-CM market. This is crucial for future revenue growth.
Supportive ifUpdates on enrollment show the study may have over 1,750 patients.
Worry ifEnrollment slows or falls short of the 1,750 patient target.
Why it matters: More downward changes could show ongoing problems in the ATTR-CM market. This may affect future growth.
Worry ifManagement revises TTR revenue guidance down again from $4.2B-$4.5B.
Less concerning ifManagement raises TTR revenue guidance to over $4.5B.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$165 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $422 loss on $10,000 · 4.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,817 loss on $10,000 · 58.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Enrollment increase in this study could lead to faster data on nucresiran for ATTR-CM.
Supportive ifThey announced that enrollment for the TRITON-CM study is done ahead of schedule.
Worry ifThere are delays in enrollment for the TRITON-CM study. No updates are available.
Why it matters: If healthcare sector growth speeds up, it may help Alnylam's performance.
Supportive ifHealthcare sector revenue growth moves back toward 10% or higher.
Worry ifHealthcare sector revenue growth is slowing down to below 5%.
Why it matters: Finishing enrollment shows progress in Alnylam's plans. This could create new revenue opportunities.
Supportive ifEnrollment in the cAPPricorn-1 Phase 2 trial is completed as scheduled.
Worry ifEnrollment in the cAPPricorn-1 trial is delayed or not completed by mid-2026.
Why it matters: Good news from regulators could improve Alnylam's market position. It may raise pipeline value.
Supportive ifThe FDA will approve cemdisiran in November 2026.
Worry ifThe FDA may deny or delay cemdisiran past November 2026.
Why it matters: Changes in expense plans could hurt profits and investor trust. Keeping expenses in check is key for growth.
Worry ifManagement maintains R&D and SG&A expense guidance at $2.7B-$2.8B.
Less concerning ifGuidance for R&D and SG&A expenses increases beyond $2.8B.
Why it matters: Growth in TTR franchise revenues is key for Alnylam's 2026 revenue goals.
Supportive ifTTR franchise revenues were over $2.5 billion for 2026.
Worry ifTTR franchise revenues were under $2.5 billion for 2026.
Why it matters: Falling below this mark would raise concerns about the growth trajectory of the TTR franchise.
Worry ifQ3 TTR net product revenues reported below $1 billion.
Less concerning ifQ3 TTR net product revenues exceed $1 billion.
Why it matters: Quick enrollment might show strong interest and possible success in the ATTR-CM market.
Supportive ifEnrollment in the TRITON-CM trial exceeds 1,750 patients.
Worry ifEnrollment is still under 1,250 patients.
Why it matters: Good results could raise trust in Alnylam's plans and future growth.
Supportive ifPositive results from the Phase 1 trial of ALN-HTT02 presented at the EHDN Congress.
Worry ifNegative results or no data presented from the ALN-HTT02 trial.
Why it matters: Higher costs may show financial stress and affect how much money they make.
Worry ifR&D and SG&A expenses reported above $2.8 billion.
Less concerning ifR&D and SG&A expenses remain below $2.7 billion.