Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ALNY)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
$156.66-2.74%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
10.05 → 8.95 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 17 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 15 to 17; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ALNY yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Control R&D and SG&A expenses to $2.7B-$2.8B in 2026 | A primary condition in Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is between $2.7B and $2.8B. | Intact | expenses exceed $2.8B in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth-focused biotechnology business, not yet a consistent earnings compounder, since the evidence classifies it as loss-making. The 1-to-3-year thesis is intact: recent financial performance is strong, and TTR franchise growth is progressing, while risk remains elevated.
The valuation is classified as cheap, despite a 1.21 premium versus peers, so the comparison depends on different valuation measures in the evidence. Expectations are tagged as justified, with no fragility gates triggered, but the expectations-gap measure is negative and model confidence is medium. Recent valuation and momentum measures improved after fresh earnings.
Near term, Q3 revenue and TTR revenue were higher than in Q1, and TTR revenue grew 59% year over year. Management has reiterated its expense guidance, but the supplied figures do not establish whether the full-year non-GAAP expense commitment will be met. Loss-making status and a recent guidance reduction remain important risks despite the October earnings beat.
A key favorable signal would be a guidance increase next quarter after the July reduction. Continued TTR franchise growth and progress on RNAi pipeline milestones also matter to the multi-year view, though the evidence does not link pipeline milestones to financial results yet. Weaker employment data could raise recession concerns, while strong results and guidance from healthcare peers may support sector momentum.
The 1-to-3-year thesis is intact, with commercial progress and stronger recent performance balanced by losses, elevated risk, and uncertainty about expense delivery. The main test is whether growth and execution continue beyond the latest quarter. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Partnerships and new RNAi therapies support expanding sales. |
| Improving |
| no new partnerships or partnership contractions over next year |
Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve $4.9B-$5.3B revenue in 2026 | A primary condition in Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is between $4.9B and $5.3B. | Broken | revenue falls below $4.9B in FY26 | Revenue: $1.458B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: between $4.9B and $5.3B. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 29, 20261,458,086,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$13.44 → $8.95 · observed estimates
$7.24B → $6.63B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $13.44 | $7,242,981,810 | 14 / 23 |
| 2026-07-25 | $13.44 | $7,242,981,810 | 14 / 23 |
| 2026-07-26 | $13.44 | $7,242,981,810 | 14 / 23 |
| 2026-07-27 | $13.44 | $7,242,981,810 | 14 / 23 |
| 2026-07-28 | $13.44 | $7,242,981,810 | 14 / 23 |
| 2026-07-29 | $13.40 | $7,237,833,980 | 14 / 23 |
| 2026-07-30 | $13.40 | $7,237,833,980 | 14 / 23 |
| 2026-07-31 | $13.07 | $7,205,404,300 | 14 / 22 |
| 2026-08-01 | $13.07 | $7,205,404,300 | 14 / 22 |
| 2026-08-02 | $12.73 | $7,077,101,760 | 15 / 25 |
| 2026-08-03 | $12.73 | $7,077,101,760 | 15 / 25 |
| 2026-08-04 | $12.73 | $7,077,101,760 | 15 / 25 |
| 2026-08-05 | $12.60 | $6,998,269,760 | 15 / 25 |
| 2026-08-06 | $12.51 | $7,013,545,760 | 15 / 25 |
| 2026-08-07 | $9.99 | $7,052,058,293 | 14 / 19 |
| 2026-08-08 | $12.60 | $6,998,269,760 | 15 / 25 |
| 2026-08-09 | $12.60 | $6,998,269,760 | 15 / 25 |
| 2026-08-10 | $12.60 | $6,998,269,760 | 15 / 25 |
| 2026-08-11 | $12.60 | $6,998,269,760 | 15 / 25 |
| 2026-08-12 | $12.60 | $6,998,269,760 | 15 / 25 |
| 2026-08-13 | $12.60 | $6,998,269,760 | 15 / 25 |
| 2026-08-14 | $9.99 | $7,052,058,293 | 14 / 19 |
| 2026-08-15 | $9.99 | $7,052,058,293 | 14 / 19 |
| 2026-08-16 | $9.99 | $7,052,058,293 | 13 / 19 |
| 2026-08-17 | $9.99 | $7,052,058,293 | 13 / 19 |
| 2026-08-18 | $9.99 | $7,052,058,293 | 13 / 19 |
| 2026-08-19 | $9.99 | $7,052,058,293 | 13 / 19 |
| 2026-08-20 | $9.99 | $7,052,058,293 | 13 / 19 |
| 2026-08-21 | $9.56 | $6,942,852,231 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-08-22 | $9.56 | $6,942,852,231 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-08-23 | $9.56 | $6,942,852,231 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-08-24 | $9.56 | $6,942,852,231 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-08-25 | $9.56 | $6,942,852,231 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-08-26 | $9.56 | $6,942,852,231 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-08-27 | $9.56 | $6,942,852,231 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-08-28 | $9.56 | $6,942,852,231 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-08-29 | $9.56 | $6,942,852,231 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-08-30 | $9.56 | $6,942,852,231 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-08-31 | $9.56 | $6,942,852,231 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-09-01 | $10.15 | $6,942,852,391 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-09-02 | $10.15 | $6,942,852,391 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-09-03 | $10.15 | $6,942,852,391 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-09-04 | $10.15 | $6,942,852,391 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-09-05 | $10.15 | $6,942,852,391 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-09-06 | $10.15 | $6,942,852,391 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-09-07 | $10.15 | $6,942,852,391 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-09-08 | $10.15 | $6,942,852,391 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-09-09 | $10.08 | $6,929,840,391 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-09-10 | $10.08 | $6,929,840,391 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-09-11 | $10.08 | $6,929,840,391 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-09-12 | $10.08 | $6,929,840,391 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-09-13 | $10.08 | $6,929,828,231 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-09-14 | $10.08 | $6,929,828,231 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-09-15 | $10.08 | $6,929,828,231 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-09-16 | $10.08 | $6,929,828,231 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-09-17 | $10.08 | $6,929,828,231 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-09-18 | $10.08 | $6,929,828,231 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-09-19 | $10.08 | $6,929,828,231 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-09-20 | $10.08 | $6,929,828,231 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-09-21 | $10.08 | $6,929,828,231 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-09-22 | $10.08 | $6,929,828,231 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-09-23 | $10.08 | $6,929,828,231 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-09-24 | $10.08 | $6,929,828,231 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-09-25 | $10.08 | $6,929,828,231 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-09-26 | $10.08 | $6,929,827,219 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-09-27 | $10.08 | $6,929,827,219 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-09-28 | $10.08 | $6,929,827,219 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-09-29 | $10.08 | $6,929,827,219 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-09-30 | $10.08 | $6,929,827,219 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-10-01 | $10.05 | $6,935,103,095 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-10-02 | $10.05 | $6,935,103,095 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-10-03 | $10.05 | $6,935,103,095 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-10-04 | $10.05 | $6,935,103,095 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-10-05 | $10.05 | $6,935,103,095 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-10-06 | $10.05 | $6,935,141,557 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-10-07 | $10.05 | $6,935,141,557 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-10-08 | $10.05 | $6,935,141,557 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-10-09 | $10.05 | $6,935,410,788 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-10-10 | $10.05 | $6,935,410,788 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-10-11 | $10.05 | $6,935,685,776 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-10-12 | $10.05 | $6,935,685,776 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-10-13 | $10.05 | $6,938,262,699 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-10-14 | $10.05 | $6,938,262,699 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-10-15 | $10.02 | $6,930,012,507 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-10-16 | $9.92 | $6,899,974,737 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-10-17 | $9.92 | $6,899,974,737 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-10-18 | $9.85 | $6,893,051,882 | 15 / 21 |
| 2026-10-19 | $9.85 | $6,893,051,882 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-10-20 | $9.85 | $6,893,051,882 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-10-21 | $9.85 | $6,893,051,882 | 15 / 21 |
| 2026-10-22 | $9.63 | $6,912,166,697 | 15 / 21 |
| 2026-10-23 | $9.64 | $6,912,166,697 | 15 / 21 |
| 2026-10-24 | $9.64 | $6,912,165,438 | 15 / 21 |
| 2026-10-25 | $9.64 | $6,912,165,438 | 15 / 21 |
| 2026-10-26 | $9.64 | $6,912,165,438 | 15 / 21 |
| 2026-10-27 | $9.64 | $6,912,165,438 | 15 / 21 |
| 2026-10-28 | $9.64 | $6,912,150,204 | 15 / 21 |
| 2026-10-29 | $9.64 | $6,912,150,204 | 15 / 21 |
| 2026-10-30 | $9.62 | $6,748,959,643 | 15 / 21 |
| 2026-10-31 | $9.19 | $6,657,107,025 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-11-01 | $9.19 | $6,657,107,025 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-11-02 | $9.19 | $6,657,107,025 | 16 / 21 |
| 2026-11-03 | $8.95 | $6,656,329,247 | 16 / 21 |
| 2026-11-04 | $8.95 | $6,629,218,136 | 17 / 21 |
| 2026-11-05 | $8.95 | $6,629,218,136 | 17 / 21 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 22 Buy / Strong Buy · 9 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 15 recorded
1 raises · 5 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.