AstroNova Inc (ALOT)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyComputer HardwareSnapshot 2026-09-04
$28.990.00%
Close 2026-08-28 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyComputer HardwareSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ALOT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -55.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -8.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 47.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 19 industry peers
ALOT — legal / regulatory event — Notice of Delisting or Failure to Satisfy a Continued Listing Rule or Standar…
Dated 2026-08-26
Notice of Delisting or Failure to Satisfy a Continued Listing Rule or Standard; Transfer of Listing. The information set forth in the Introductory Note and
Why it matters: News about the acquisition could affect growth and market position. It may show plans for expansion.
Watch forGood news on the acquisition progress or how it is going.
Also watch forReports of delays or problems with the acquisition.
Why it matters: The completion of the acquisition can enhance growth and market position. It may lead to new opportunities.
Supportive ifAn official announcement says the deal is complete.
Worry ifThe deal is delayed by regulators or it is canceled.
Why it matters: AstroNova is in a growing sector. A drop may show bigger problems.
Worry ifSector revenue growth falls below its median for two consecutive months.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above its median for the same period.
Why it matters: Higher operating income growth shows good cost control and better profits.
Supportive ifOperating income is above $1.6 million, showing strong growth.
Worry ifOperating income is below $1.6 million. This may show cost issues.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$11 on $10,000 · ±0.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $59 loss on $10,000 · 0.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $517 loss on $10,000 · 5.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Orders growth above 125.1% shows strong demand and good product positioning.
Supportive ifAerospace orders show over 125.1% growth year over year.
Worry ifAerospace orders show below 125.1% growth year over year.
Why it matters: Strong growth in the Aerospace segment is key to overall revenue success. It shows demand for products is solid.
Supportive ifAerospace revenue growth exceeds 15% year over year in Q2.
Worry ifAerospace revenue growth falls below 10% year over year in Q2.
Why it matters: An EBITDA margin over 10% shows better profits and good cost control. This is a goal for management.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA margin is over 10% in Q2.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin falls below 8% in Q2.
Why it matters: Better operating income matters a lot. It shows that costs are managed better.
Supportive ifOperating income goes up by more than 10% from Q1.
Worry ifOperating income goes down or stays the same from Q1.
Why it matters: Court results could change financial health and operations. This can affect how investors feel.
Worry ifCourt results are good for AstroNova.
Less concerning ifCourt cases lead to fines or limits on operations.
Why it matters: Growth or stability in Product ID revenue is key for overall performance. It shows recovery from past drops.
Supportive ifProduct ID revenue shows growth or stabilizes above $26 million in Q2.
Worry ifProduct ID revenue declines further below $25 million in Q2.
Why it matters: An increase in gross profit margins would indicate better pricing or cost control. This could enhance investor sentiment.
Supportive ifGross profit margins reported above 40%.
Worry ifGross profit margins fall below 35%.
Why it matters: Lower revenue growth means the company is slowing down. This is especially true in Aerospace.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth below 4% shows a possible drop in demand.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue growth meets or exceeds 4%, showing continued strong performance.
Why it matters: A drop in Aerospace orders shows weaker demand in a key area for AstroNova.
Worry ifAerospace segment orders below $19 million show less demand from OEMs.
Less concerning ifAerospace segment orders over $19 million show steady demand. This indicates a strong market.
Why it matters: Cutting debt is important for a better balance sheet and financial health.
Supportive ifTotal debt under $35 million shows good management of money. This is a positive sign.
Worry ifTotal debt above $35 million shows trouble in reducing debt.
Why it matters: Successful integration is key to getting benefits from the Arcline acquisition. It will take effort.
Watch forManagement says operations are well integrated after the merger. This is a good sign.
Also watch forThere are reports of integration issues. These are causing delays in getting merger benefits.