Alarm.Com, Inc. (ALRM)
NASDAQFinancialsSoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
$56.48-0.44%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsSoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ALRM
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 12 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $56 ALRM trades at 20× p/e, below its 27× p/e peer median, but our blended $55 fair value sits below the price. It's a high-confidence read. Analysts target $55–$65. Note: our $55 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($55–$65). Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $60.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $222.72 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $6.26 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M | $31.15 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer P/B | 12M |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$55.00 – $65.00 (median $60.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-08-10
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| $210.62 |
| 13.6 |
| 15.46 |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $78.77 | 18.6 | 4.24 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $52.65 | 17.5 | 3.01 | ntm analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $71.53 | 3.8 | 18.97 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $25.56 | 9.2 | 2.79 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $21.28 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $57.19 | 20.5 | 2.79 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $82.11 | 27.4 | 2.99 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/B | 3Y | $282.62 | 13.6 | 20.74 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $119.80 | 18.6 | 6.45 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $55.72 | 17.5 | 3.19 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $79.24 | 3.8 | 21.02 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $29.21 | 9.2 | 3.19 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $65.36 | 20.5 | 3.19 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/B | 5Y | $343.82 | 13.6 | 25.23 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $158.43 | 18.6 | 8.53 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $58.19 | 17.5 | 3.33 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $82.74 | 3.8 | 21.95 | guidance | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $30.51 | 9.2 | 3.33 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $68.26 | 20.5 | 3.33 | Analyst | high |