Alarm.Com, Inc. (ALRM)
NASDAQFinancialsSoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-05
$67.03-1.37%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsSoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ALRM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 23.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 5.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 17.7 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 61 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ALRM — officer change
Dated 2026-03-18
President, Venture Businesses and Corporate Strategy — Jeff Bedell: Mr. Bedell will temporarily relinquish his duties due to a personal family issue but will continue as a full-time employee and serve as a senior advisor.
Why it matters: First-half operating cash flow nearly doubled from 2025. A full-year result below the 2025 level would erase that gain.
Worry ifFull-year 2026 operating cash flow is below $153.3 million, the 2025 total.
Less concerning ifFull-year 2026 operating cash flow is above $153.3 million.
Why it matters: The company set a Q3 revenue range of $189.8 million to $190.0 million. A miss would break its recent growth pattern.
Worry ifQ3 SaaS and license revenue is below $189.8 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 SaaS and license revenue is at least $189.8 million.
Why it matters: Management raised its 2026 range twice, to $754.0 million to $754.4 million. Another raise would extend that trend; a cut would reverse it.
Watch forManagement raises the 2026 SaaS and license revenue range above $754.4 million.
Also watch forManagement cuts the range below $754.0 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$84 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $279 loss on $10,000 · 2.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,069 loss on $10,000 · 20.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.