Alarm.Com, Inc. (ALRM)
NASDAQFinancialsSoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
$56.48-0.44%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsSoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ALRM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 3.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 5.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 1.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 119 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ALRM — officer change
Dated 2026-03-18
President, Venture Businesses and Corporate Strategy — Jeff Bedell: Mr. Bedell will temporarily relinquish his duties due to a personal family issue but will continue as a full-time employee and serve as a senior advisor.
Why it matters: Stable or better net income is key for long-term profits. It builds investor trust.
Watch forGAAP net income reported above $23.4 million in the next quarter.
Also watch forGAAP net income reported below $23.4 million.
Why it matters: A slowdown in total revenue growth could indicate challenges in expanding platform offerings. This would raise concerns about future growth.
Worry ifTotal revenue growth in Q3 is reported at 9.2% or higher year-over-year.
Less concerning ifTotal revenue growth in Q3 is below 9.2% compared to last year.
Why it matters: This new AI tool could improve efficiency. It may bring in more customers.
Supportive ifGood customer feedback or high adoption rates came after the launch of AI Visual Check.
Worry ifBad feedback or low adoption rates were reported after the launch.
Why it matters: Going over this number shows strong cash flow and financial options. It helps support growth plans.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations for Q3 exceeds $100 million.
Worry ifCash flow from operations for Q3 is reported below $92.5 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$112 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $320 loss on $10,000 · 3.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,606 loss on $10,000 · 26.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: This would confirm strong growth momentum in Alarm.com's core business. It shows management's confidence in continued revenue expansion.
Supportive ifSaaS and license revenue for Q3 is reported at $190 million or higher.
Worry ifSaaS and license revenue for Q3 is reported below $189.8 million.
Why it matters: Higher EBITDA guidance means the company will make more money. It shows better operations.
Supportive ifNon-GAAP adjusted EBITDA guidance is raised to at least $222 million.
Worry ifIf non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA guidance does not rise or drops below $215 million.
Why it matters: This guidance shows how healthy the business is and its growth plans. Meeting or beating this range helps create a positive growth feeling.
Supportive ifTotal revenue reported within the range of $1.0595 billion to $1.0705 billion.
Worry ifTotal revenue was less than $1.0595 billion.
Why it matters: Hitting or beating this revenue shows good business performance and growth.
Supportive ifTotal revenue reported at $1.0595 billion or higher for 2026.
Worry ifTotal revenue was below $1.0595 billion for 2026.
Why it matters: Success of AI products can drive revenue growth. High adoption signals market demand.
Supportive ifOver 20% of enterprise customers use AI Visual Check.
Worry ifLess than 10% of enterprise customers use AI Visual Check.
Why it matters: This range shows strong revenue growth. It reflects the health of the business.
Supportive ifTotal revenue guidance for Q3 falls within $1.079 billion to $1.089 billion.
Worry ifTotal revenue guidance for Q3 is below $1.079 billion.
Why it matters: Better operating income is important for long-term profit. Going above this level shows better cost control.
Supportive ifOperating income was more than $31.6 million.
Worry ifOperating income was less than $31.6 million.