Alarm.Com, Inc. (ALRM)

NASDAQFinancialsSoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04

$67.96+3.82%

Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Nov 4, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Alarm.Com, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.3%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

3.07 → 3.08 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 4 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Price, analyst earnings & P/E reference

The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ALRM yet.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations

Management figures unavailable.

Current consensus figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Cash from operations grows to about $214 million in 2026	Cash flow is strong at about $214 million.	Intact	Cash flow falls below $180 million in FY26	Free cash flow: $86.763M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $214 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 202686,763,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
EPS near $2.79 in 2026	A primary condition in Alarm.Com, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $2.79 per share.	Under Pressure	EPS falls below $2.50 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $0.48 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $2.79 per share. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 20260.48 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “• Non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA(*) was $57.7 million, compared to $49.9 million(^).” “• Non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA expectations are being increased to a range of $221.0 million to $223.0 million.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026
Revenue grows to about $1.065 billion in 2026	Alarm.com grows revenue about 5% yearly, reaching $1.065 billion in 2026.	Intact	Revenue falls below $1,000 million in FY26	Revenue: $277.734M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $1,065 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 2026277,734,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$3.08

$2.97 → $3.08 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$1.13B

$1.12B → $1.13B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$2.97	$1,115,456,400	6 / 5
2026-07-25	$2.97	$1,115,456,400	6 / 5
2026-07-26	$2.97	$1,115,456,400	6 / 5
2026-07-27	$2.97	$1,115,456,400	6 / 5
2026-07-28	$2.97	$1,115,456,400	6 / 5
2026-07-29	$2.97	$1,115,456,400	6 / 5
2026-07-30	$2.97	$1,115,456,400	6 / 5
2026-07-31	$2.97	$1,115,456,400	6 / 5
2026-08-01	$2.97	$1,115,456,400	6 / 5
2026-08-02	$2.97	$1,115,456,400	6 / 5
2026-08-03	$2.97	$1,115,456,400	6 / 5
2026-08-04	$2.97	$1,115,456,400	6 / 5
2026-08-05	$2.97	$1,115,456,400	6 / 5
2026-08-06	$2.97	$1,115,456,400	6 / 5
2026-08-07	$2.97	$1,115,518,074	4 / 4
2026-08-08	$3.00	$1,122,521,600	6 / 5
2026-08-09	$3.06	$1,133,334,230	6 / 5
2026-08-10	$3.06	$1,133,334,230	6 / 5
2026-08-11	$2.97	$1,115,518,074	4 / 4
2026-08-12	$3.06	$1,133,334,230	6 / 5
2026-08-13	$3.06	$1,133,334,230	6 / 5
2026-08-14	$2.97	$1,115,518,074	4 / 4
2026-08-15	$2.97	$1,115,518,074	4 / 4
2026-08-16	$2.97	$1,115,518,074	4 / 4
2026-08-17	$2.97	$1,115,518,074	4 / 4
2026-08-18	$2.97	$1,115,518,074	4 / 4
2026-08-19	$2.97	$1,115,518,074	4 / 4
2026-08-20	$2.97	$1,115,518,074	4 / 4
2026-08-21	$3.06	$1,131,640,850	4 / 4
2026-08-22	$3.06	$1,131,640,850	4 / 4
2026-08-23	$3.06	$1,131,640,850	4 / 4
2026-08-24	$3.06	$1,131,640,850	4 / 4
2026-08-25	$3.06	$1,131,640,850	4 / 4
2026-08-26	$3.06	$1,131,640,850	4 / 4
2026-08-27	$3.06	$1,131,640,850	4 / 4
2026-08-28	$3.06	$1,131,640,850	4 / 4
2026-08-29	$3.06	$1,131,640,850	4 / 4
2026-08-30	$3.06	$1,131,640,850	4 / 4
2026-08-31	$3.06	$1,131,640,850	4 / 4
2026-09-01	$3.06	$1,131,640,850	4 / 4
2026-09-02	$3.07	$1,131,640,850	4 / 4
2026-09-03	$3.07	$1,131,640,850	4 / 4
2026-09-04	$3.07	$1,131,640,850	4 / 4
2026-09-05	$3.07	$1,131,640,850	4 / 4
2026-09-06	$3.07	$1,131,640,850	4 / 4
2026-09-07	$3.07	$1,131,640,850	4 / 4
2026-09-08	$3.07	$1,131,640,850	4 / 4
2026-09-09	$3.07	$1,131,640,850	4 / 4
2026-09-10	$3.07	$1,131,640,850	4 / 4
2026-09-11	$3.07	$1,131,640,850	4 / 4
2026-09-12	$3.07	$1,131,640,850	4 / 4
2026-09-13	$3.07	$1,131,640,850	4 / 4
2026-09-14	$3.07	$1,131,640,850	4 / 4
2026-09-15	$3.07	$1,131,640,850	4 / 4
2026-09-16	$3.07	$1,131,640,850	4 / 4
2026-09-17	$3.07	$1,131,640,850	4 / 4
2026-09-18	$3.07	$1,131,640,850	4 / 4
2026-09-19	$3.07	$1,131,640,850	4 / 4
2026-09-20	$3.07	$1,131,640,850	4 / 4
2026-09-21	$3.07	$1,131,640,850	4 / 4
2026-09-22	$3.07	$1,131,640,850	4 / 4
2026-09-23	$3.07	$1,131,640,850	4 / 4
2026-09-24	$3.07	$1,131,640,850	4 / 4
2026-09-25	$3.07	$1,131,640,850	4 / 4
2026-09-26	$3.07	$1,131,640,850	4 / 4
2026-09-27	$3.07	$1,131,640,850	4 / 4
2026-09-28	$3.07	$1,131,640,850	4 / 4
2026-09-29	$3.07	$1,131,640,850	4 / 4
2026-09-30	$3.07	$1,131,640,850	4 / 4
2026-10-01	$3.07	$1,131,640,850	4 / 4
2026-10-02	$3.07	$1,131,640,850	4 / 4
2026-10-03	$3.07	$1,131,640,850	4 / 4
2026-10-04	$3.07	$1,131,640,850	4 / 4
2026-10-05	$3.07	$1,131,640,850	4 / 4
2026-10-06	$3.07	$1,131,640,850	4 / 4
2026-10-07	$3.07	$1,131,640,850	4 / 4
2026-10-08	$3.07	$1,131,640,850	4 / 4
2026-10-09	$3.07	$1,131,640,850	4 / 4
2026-10-10	$3.07	$1,131,640,850	4 / 4
2026-10-11	$3.07	$1,131,640,850	4 / 4
2026-10-12	$3.07	$1,131,640,850	4 / 4
2026-10-13	$3.07	$1,131,640,850	4 / 4
2026-10-14	$3.07	$1,131,640,850	4 / 4
2026-10-15	$3.07	$1,131,640,850	4 / 4
2026-10-16	$3.07	$1,131,640,850	4 / 4
2026-10-17	$3.07	$1,131,640,850	4 / 4
2026-10-18	$3.07	$1,131,640,850	4 / 4
2026-10-19	$3.07	$1,131,640,850	4 / 4
2026-10-20	$3.07	$1,131,640,850	4 / 4
2026-10-21	$3.07	$1,131,640,850	4 / 4
2026-10-22	$3.07	$1,131,640,850	4 / 4
2026-10-23	$3.07	$1,131,640,850	4 / 4
2026-10-24	$3.07	$1,131,640,850	4 / 4
2026-10-25	$3.07	$1,131,640,850	4 / 4
2026-10-26	$3.07	$1,131,640,850	4 / 4
2026-10-27	$3.07	$1,131,640,850	4 / 4
2026-10-28	$3.07	$1,131,640,850	4 / 4
2026-10-29	$3.07	$1,131,640,850	4 / 4
2026-10-30	$3.07	$1,131,640,850	4 / 4
2026-10-31	$3.08	$1,131,640,850	4 / 4
2026-11-01	$3.08	$1,131,640,850	4 / 4
2026-11-02	$3.08	$1,131,640,850	4 / 4
2026-11-03	$3.08	$1,131,640,850	4 / 4
2026-11-04	$3.08	$1,131,640,850	4 / 4

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-06-01	3	3	1
2026-07-01	3	3	1
2026-08-01	3	2	1
2026-09-01	3	2	1
2026-10-01	3	2	1
2026-11-01	3	2	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Cash from operations grows to about $214 million in 2026Free cash flow: $86.763M
EPS near $2.79 in 2026Published status: Under Pressure
Revenue grows to about $1.065 billion in 2026Revenue: $277.734M

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-20.7%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Alarm.Com, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 31, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a growth-oriented software and services business, with recurring SaaS and license revenue as a key driver. Its long-term thesis is improving, but the current state remains watch because recent financial performance trails its industry cohort.

What's priced into Alarm.Com, Inc.

The evidence labels valuation as expensive and the priced-in state as stretched, despite a peer comparison that points to ALRM as cheap versus peers. The expectations gap is positive but modest, and low fragility means the evidence does not show concentrated valuation fragility.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term execution has been steady: SaaS and license revenue grew year over year, full-year SaaS guidance was raised, and operating cash flow nearly doubled in the first half of 2026. Recent earnings beats and improving momentum are positive, though financial performance remains below the industry cohort and the evidence notes past deep misses among the company and its peers.

What Alarm.Com, Inc. hinges on

The multi-year thesis depends on continued growth in SaaS and license revenue, broader platform adoption, and stronger cash generation. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; continued earnings strength among the named Financials sector bellwethers would support sector momentum, while rate cuts are identified as a sector headwind.