Alarm.Com, Inc. (ALRM)
NASDAQFinancialsSoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
$56.48-0.44%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsSoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
Warn: Primary pillar under pressure — Cash from operations grows to about $214 million in 2026: FCF guidance $214M vs $214M target.
Alarm.com grows revenue about 5% yearly, reaching $1.065 billion in 2026. Profit per share is near $2.79 this year. Cash flow is strong at about $214 million. The company improves cash from operations from $24 million to $50 million in one year.
Revenue growth could slow below 5%. Profit margins may not improve much. Cash flow gains might stall, hurting investments.
The price is about 20% below our fair value near $63. Analysts expect 5% revenue growth. We agree with these views.
Breaks if: Cash flow falls below $180 million in FY26
Breaks if: EPS falls below $2.50 in FY26
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $1,000 million in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This is a long-term thesis on a company with stable management and a focus on growth, particularly in Software as a Service (SaaS) and license revenue. The current state reflects a watchful approach as recent performance has been neutral compared to peers.
The valuation is considered expensive relative to peers, suggesting that the market has high expectations for future performance. The current pricing reflects a justified premium, indicating that investors are optimistic about ALRM's growth trajectory.
Management is on track with priorities to increase SaaS and license revenue, total revenue, and cash flow from operations. Recent financial performance has shown steady growth, though it remains below that of industry peers, which could impact future results.
The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like NATL, DFIN, and DTCX. If these companies continue to beat earnings and guide higher, it could support ALRM's growth. Conversely, any guidance cuts or misses from these peers could negatively impact ALRM's momentum.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. The latest earnings beat supports the read on ALRM. However, sell-side analysts expect revenue growth to decelerate to 4%, down from 9.1%. This suggests potential challenges in maintaining growth momentum.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Focus on driving revenue growth through strategic initiatives and market expansion.
In the next 1 to 3 years, ALRM's outlook depends on its ability to navigate sector dynamics and maintain growth. Not investment advice.