Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Altimmune, Inc. (ALT)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$2.12+3.92%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ALT yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Manage and reduce operating losses | The company aims to manage operating losses but still faces challenges. | Broken | Operating loss worsens beyond -$24.2M in 2026-Q1 | Operating income: $-26.229M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating loss less negative than -$24.2M in 2026-Q1. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 12, 2026-26,229,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
ALT is a speculative clinical-development company, not a proven earnings compounder: it is loss-making and depends on advancing pemvidutide trials. The thesis is on watch, with recent financial performance well below its industry cohort, though the evidence says it has not freshly broken.
The valuation evidence indicates an expensive setup with a large expectations gap, while the overall fragility rating is low because the evidence does not show the full combination of expensive valuation, weak performance, and turbulence. The snapshot does not specify what assumptions the market has priced in, so that part of the expectations picture is unclear.
Near term, clinical progress is supported by the Phase 3 PERFORMA MASH launch, positive Phase 2 RECLAIM AUD results, and completed RESTORE ALD enrollment. But quarterly operating losses rose from $24.2 million to $26.2 million as trial activity and other expenses increased, and the company reported $519 million in cash and investments at June 30. Recent CEO and CFO transitions and a new financial obligation add uncertainty; a guidance cut is a stated risk, while the miss-risk assessment is quiet despite the elevated risk profile.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis hinges on whether pemvidutide trials continue to deliver meaningful milestones and whether the company can fund development while managing rising expenses. A guidance cut or further weakening in employment data could weigh on the near-term business setting, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from healthcare bellwethers could support sector conditions.
ALT remains a high-risk, loss-making clinical-development story with tangible trial progress but weak recent financial performance and important execution and financing questions. The multi-year view depends on trial delivery, funding, and steadier management execution. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Our momentum positions Altimmune to deliver on our goals of bringing pemvidutide to patients with serious liver diseases and creating value for shareholders.”” ““We continue to make significant progress across multiple fronts, as we enter a new phase for Altimmune,” said Jerry Durso, President and Chief Executive Officer of Altimmune.”
Advance pemvidutide clinical trials | Altimmune is advancing its pemvidutide clinical trials well. | Intact | Phase 3 MASH trial start delayed beyond 2H 2026 | Qualitative: Phase 3 MASH trial on track for 2H 2026 start Recent updates confirm concurrent progress in liver trials and specific planning for the Phase 3 MASH study. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Control share dilution and manage share count | A supporting condition in Altimmune, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is No significant increase in share count beyond current levels. | Intact | Share count increases significantly beyond current levels | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.68 → $-0.64 · observed estimates
$0.03B → $0.03B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.68 | $25,730,800 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.68 | $25,730,800 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.68 | $25,730,800 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.68 | $25,730,800 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.84 | $0 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.84 | $0 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.69 | $0 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.69 | $0 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.69 | $0 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.69 | $0 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.69 | $0 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.69 | $0 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.69 | $0 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.69 | $0 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.66 | $25,730,800 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.69 | $0 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.69 | $0 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.69 | $0 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-11 | $-0.66 | $25,730,800 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.69 | $0 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.69 | $0 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.66 | $25,730,800 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.66 | $25,730,800 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.66 | $25,730,800 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.66 | $25,730,800 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.66 | $25,730,800 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.66 | $25,730,800 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.64 | $25,730,800 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.64 | $25,730,800 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.64 | $25,730,800 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.64 | $25,730,800 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.64 | $25,730,800 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.64 | $25,730,800 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.64 | $25,730,800 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.64 | $25,730,800 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.64 | $25,730,800 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.64 | $25,730,800 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.64 | $25,730,800 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.64 | $25,730,800 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.64 | $25,730,800 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.64 | $25,730,800 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.64 | $25,730,800 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.64 | $25,730,800 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.64 | $25,730,800 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.64 | $25,730,800 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.64 | $25,730,800 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.64 | $25,730,800 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.64 | $25,730,800 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.64 | $25,730,800 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.64 | $25,730,800 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.64 | $25,730,800 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.64 | $25,730,800 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.64 | $25,730,800 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.64 | $25,730,800 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.64 | $25,730,800 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.64 | $25,730,800 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.64 | $25,730,800 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.64 | $25,730,800 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.64 | $25,730,800 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.64 | $25,730,800 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.64 | $25,730,800 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.64 | $25,730,800 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.64 | $25,730,800 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.64 | $25,730,800 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.64 | $25,730,800 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.64 | $25,730,800 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.64 | $25,730,800 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.64 | $25,730,800 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.64 | $25,730,800 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.64 | $25,730,800 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.64 | $25,730,800 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.64 | $25,730,800 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.64 | $25,730,800 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.64 | $25,730,800 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.64 | $25,730,800 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.64 | $25,730,800 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.64 | $25,730,800 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.64 | $25,730,800 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.64 | $25,730,800 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.64 | $25,730,800 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.64 | $25,730,800 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.64 | $25,730,800 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.64 | $25,730,800 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.64 | $25,730,800 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.64 | $25,730,800 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.64 | $25,730,800 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.64 | $25,730,800 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.64 | $25,730,800 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.64 | $25,730,800 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.64 | $25,730,800 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.64 | $25,730,800 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.64 | $25,730,800 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.64 | $25,730,800 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.64 | $25,730,800 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.64 | $25,730,800 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.64 | $25,730,800 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.64 | $25,730,800 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.64 | $25,730,800 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.64 | $25,730,800 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.64 | $25,730,800 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.64 | $25,730,800 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.64 | $25,730,800 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.64 | $25,730,800 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.64 | $25,730,800 | 7 / 6 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.