Reading ALUR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ALUR free→Reading ALUR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ALUR free→Health CareSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. The company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed, and it is currently facing high risk with a sector backdrop that is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, ALUR is below typical. The read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 0 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $0.58. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $0.66 ALUR trades at 0× p/s, below its 2× p/s peer median. Our $3.28 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price sits about 80% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 50% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3115).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.68x of net income into operating cash flow.
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
12 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by legal/regulatory items. Historically, Health Care names rated volatile grew net income 43% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=600).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$670.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$1,340.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $9,202.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation label changed from 'inexpensive' to 'None'.
Valuation changed. The valuation label moved from "inexpensive" to "None." Risk remained high. The sector backdrop is a headwind.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
No named catalysts to watch right now. Check back after the next earnings report.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ALUR yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Changes in Registrant’s Certifying Accountant. Dismissal of Independent Registered Public Accounting Firm Deloitte & Touche LLP (“Deloitte”) has served as the independent registered public accounting firm for Allurion Technologies, Inc. (the “Company”) since 2016. On May 22, 2026 (the “Effective Date”), Deloitte was dismissed as our independent registered public accounting firm. The decision to dismiss Deloitte was approved by the Audit Committee of the Board of Directors (the “Audit Committe…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ALUR ALLURION TECHNOLOGIES INC | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 2 of 100 | — | high |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on regaining compliance with NYSE listing standards following delisting notice.
Leverage recent FDA approval of the Allurion Gastric Balloon System to strengthen market position.
Focus on improving operating income through cost management and efficiency.
Notice of Delisting or Failure to Satisfy a Continued Listing Rule or Standard; Transfer of Listing. On March 6, 2026, the New York Stock Exchange (“NYSE”) notified Allurion Technologies, Inc. (“Allurion” or the “Company”) that it has determined to commence proceedings to delist the Company’s common stock, par value $0.0001 per share (the “Common Stock”), and warrants to purchase 0.056818 shares of Common Stock, with an exercise price of $202.50 per share of Common Stock (the “Warrants”), as…
Notice of Delisting or Failure to Satisfy a Continued Listing Rule or Standard; Transfer of Listing On March 2, 2026, Allurion Technologies, Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “Company”) announced that it received a letter (the “Delisting Notice”) from the staff of the New York Stock Exchange (the “Exchange” or “NYSE”) indicating that the Company does not meet certain of the Exchange’s continued listing standards as set forth in Section 802.01B of the NYSE Listed Company Manual that require li…
Other Events. On March 12, 2026, the Company issued a press release in connection with the delisting notice of its Common Stock and Warrants from the NYSE and its appeal of the delisting determination described above. As discussed in the press release, the Company's recent FDA approval of the Allurion Gastric Balloon System, featuring the Allurion Smart Capsule, catalyzed a detailed plan to regain compliance with NYSE listing standards or to relist its securities on the NYSE American, strengt…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On February 24, 2026, Allurion Technologies, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into a warrant exercise inducement offer letter (the “Inducement Letter”) with certain holders (the “Exercising Holders”) of certain of the Company’s: (i) warrants issued in January 2025 to purchase shares of common stock, par value $0.0001 per share (“Common Stock”), with an exercise price of $6.00 per share (the “January 2025 Warrants”); (ii) warrants issued in February 2025…