Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
ALX Oncology Holdings Inc (ALXO)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
$1.15-15.44%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ALXO yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain sufficient cash and manage debt | A supporting condition in ALX Oncology Holdings Inc's published investment case. The stated target is no liquidity crisis or debt default through FY27. | Intact | default on debt or liquidity runs out before FY27 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a speculative clinical-stage biotechnology business, not a proven earnings compounder. Its multi-year view is intact, but confidence is low and risk is high because the evidence depends on clinical progress and the company remains loss-making.
The valuation model shows ALXO at a 3.26 premium versus peers, with value resting on optionality, meaning potential future value from clinical programs rather than current earnings. Model confidence is low, and the evidence does not specify exactly what clinical outcomes the market already assumes.
Near term, management reports ASPEN-09-Breast enrollment is on track for topline data in mid-2027 and expects ALX2004 Phase 1 safety data in the second half of 2026. Cash and investments fell from $169.1 million in the first quarter of 2026 to $153.4 million in the second quarter; management says funding extends through at least the first quarter of 2027 and into the first half of 2028. The next results remain a risk: the evidence flags a high-miss-rate industry and a smaller-company risk profile.
The multi-year thesis hinges on clinical programs reaching their stated milestones and producing useful data. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while continued strength among healthcare sector leaders could support the sector backdrop. Funding progress and leadership execution also matter, though the evidence gives limited detail on their future effects.
As of 2026-10-31, the thesis is intact, but ALXO remains a high-risk, loss-making company whose outlook depends on clinical execution and funding. The evidence is limited and confidence is low. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| ALX Oncology is advancing key cancer drug programs with important readouts. |
| Intact |
| miss key clinical readouts by mid-2026 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Reduce losses and improve earnings trajectory | A primary condition in ALX Oncology Holdings Inc's published investment case. The stated target is EPS loss narrows from -$0.65 in FY26 to less negative in FY27. | Improving | EPS loss worsens or stays flat through FY27 | Diluted EPS: $-0.13 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS loss narrows from -$0.65 in FY26 to less negative in FY27. Reported actuals cannot certify a consensus target without an explicit period and accounting-basis binding. Aug 6, 2026-0.13 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Start generating revenue from drug sales | A primary condition in ALX Oncology Holdings Inc's published investment case. The stated target is generate first meaningful revenue by FY27. | Intact | no revenue generated by end of FY27 | Revenue: $0 FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: generate first meaningful revenue by FY27. Target period ends 2027-12-31; this observation covers 2026-Q2. Aug 6, 20260 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.58 → $-0.55 · observed estimates
$0.01B → $0.01B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.58 | $5,350,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.58 | $5,350,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.58 | $5,350,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.58 | $5,350,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.54 | $0 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.54 | $0 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.54 | $0 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.54 | $0 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.54 | $0 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.54 | $0 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.54 | $0 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.54 | $0 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.54 | $0 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.54 | $0 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.58 | $5,350,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.54 | $0 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.54 | $0 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.54 | $0 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-11 | $-0.54 | $5,350,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.54 | $0 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.54 | $0 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.54 | $5,350,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.54 | $5,350,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.54 | $5,350,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.54 | $5,350,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.54 | $5,350,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.54 | $5,350,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.54 | $5,350,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.55 | $5,350,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.55 | $5,350,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.55 | $5,350,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.55 | $5,350,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.55 | $5,350,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.55 | $5,350,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.55 | $5,350,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.55 | $5,350,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.55 | $5,350,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.55 | $5,350,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.55 | $5,350,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.55 | $5,350,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.55 | $5,350,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.55 | $5,350,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.55 | $5,350,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.55 | $5,350,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.55 | $5,350,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.55 | $5,350,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.55 | $5,350,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.55 | $5,350,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.55 | $5,350,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.55 | $5,350,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.55 | $5,350,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.55 | $5,350,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.55 | $5,350,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.55 | $5,350,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.55 | $5,350,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.55 | $5,350,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.55 | $5,350,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.55 | $5,350,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.55 | $5,350,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.55 | $5,350,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.55 | $5,350,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.55 | $5,350,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.55 | $5,350,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.55 | $5,350,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.55 | $5,350,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.55 | $5,350,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.55 | $5,350,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.55 | $5,350,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.55 | $5,350,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.55 | $5,350,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.55 | $5,350,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.55 | $5,350,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.55 | $5,350,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.55 | $5,350,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.55 | $5,350,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.55 | $5,350,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.55 | $5,350,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.55 | $5,350,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.55 | $5,350,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.55 | $5,350,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.55 | $5,350,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.55 | $5,350,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.55 | $5,350,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.55 | $5,350,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.55 | $5,350,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.55 | $5,350,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.55 | $5,350,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.55 | $5,350,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.55 | $5,350,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.55 | $5,350,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.55 | $5,350,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.55 | $5,350,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.55 | $5,350,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.55 | $5,350,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.55 | $5,350,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.55 | $5,350,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.55 | $5,350,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.55 | $5,350,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.55 | $5,350,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.55 | $5,350,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.55 | $5,350,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.55 | $5,350,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.55 | $5,350,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.55 | $5,350,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-11-05 | $-0.55 | $5,350,000 | 5 / 5 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 6, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.