Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Amalgamated Financial Corp. (AMAL)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$49.36-2.87%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
4.62 → 4.67 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for AMAL yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Dividend per share grows to at least $0.17 in 2026-Q1 | The company steadily raises dividends from $0.14 to $0.17 per share and expands share buybacks by $31.4 million. | Intact | Dividend per share falls below $0.17 in 2026-Q1 | Dividend per share: $0.17 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.17 per share in 2026-Q1. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 3, 20260.17 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
AMAL is a financial-sector growth and income business, with a multi-year view tied to execution in lending, deposits, and earnings. The thesis is on watch: recent earnings results were positive, but performance remains below the industry cohort.
Valuation is above peers, with a durable premium, and the expectations gap is modest. The market appears to recognize some lasting business strength, while the recent rise in the valuation score makes continued execution important.
Near term, management has delivered record Q3 net income, deposit growth, commercial loan growth, and share repurchases. The latest deposit growth rate was slower than in Q2, and the Q3 operating revenue measure is not directly comparable with the earlier revenue series. Near-term miss risk is described as low, though recent performance remains below the industry cohort.
The multi-year thesis depends on AMAL sustaining its earnings and growth targets without reversing its recently raised guidance, which would damage management credibility. Sector conditions also matter: continued strength among financial-sector peers could support momentum, while rate cuts from the current level could weigh on the sector.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, AMAL’s setup is supported by recent earnings and balance-sheet execution, but the premium valuation and below-cohort performance leave the thesis dependent on consistent delivery. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
EPS at least $3.41 in FY26 | Earnings per share are expected near $3.41 in 2026. | Intact | EPS falls below $3.41 in FY26 | Diluted EPS: $1.20 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $3.41 per share in FY26. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 3, 20261.2 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Third Quarter 2026 Highlights Profitability and Revenue • Record net income of $36.4 million, or $1.20 per diluted share.” “• Record operating revenue of $101.7 million, or $3.36 per diluted share.” Revenue was $119.760 million in 2026-Q3. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Revenue grows to at least $295 million in FY25 and $93 million in 2026-Q4 | grows revenue to about $295 million in 2025 and targets $93 million in 2026-Q4. | Intact | Revenue falls below $295 million in FY25 or below $93.4 million in 2026-Q4 | Revenue: $119.76M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $295 million in FY25 and >= $93.4 million in 2026-Q4. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Nov 3, 2026119,760,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Third Quarter 2026 Highlights Profitability and Revenue • Record net income of $36.4 million, or $1.20 per diluted share.” “• Record operating revenue of $101.7 million, or $3.36 per diluted share.” Revenue was $119.760 million in 2026-Q3. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Share repurchase authorization expands to at least $40 million in 2026-Q2 | The company steadily raises dividends from $0.14 to $0.17 per share and expands share buybacks by $31.4 million. | Intact | Buyback authorization falls below $40 million in 2026-Q2 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$4.54 → $4.67 · observed estimates
$0.40B → $0.41B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $4.54 | $396,142,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $4.59 | $402,338,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $4.59 | $402,338,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $4.54 | $398,040,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $4.59 | $402,338,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $4.66 | $408,046,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $4.66 | $408,046,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $4.66 | $408,046,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $4.66 | $408,046,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $4.66 | $408,046,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $4.66 | $408,046,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $4.66 | $408,046,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $4.66 | $408,046,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $4.66 | $408,046,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-07 | $4.61 | $403,748,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $4.66 | $408,046,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $4.66 | $408,046,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $4.66 | $408,046,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-11 | $4.66 | $408,046,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $4.66 | $408,046,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $4.66 | $408,046,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $4.61 | $403,748,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $4.61 | $403,748,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $4.61 | $403,748,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $4.61 | $403,748,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $4.61 | $403,748,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $4.61 | $403,748,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $4.61 | $407,558,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $4.61 | $407,558,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $4.61 | $407,558,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $4.61 | $407,558,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $4.61 | $407,558,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $4.61 | $407,558,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $4.61 | $407,558,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $4.61 | $407,558,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $4.61 | $407,558,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $4.61 | $407,558,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $4.61 | $407,558,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $4.61 | $407,558,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $4.61 | $407,558,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $4.61 | $407,558,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $4.61 | $407,558,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $4.62 | $409,992,200 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $4.62 | $409,992,200 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $4.62 | $409,992,200 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $4.62 | $409,992,200 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $4.62 | $409,992,200 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $4.62 | $409,992,200 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $4.62 | $409,992,200 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $4.62 | $409,992,200 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $4.62 | $409,992,200 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $4.62 | $409,992,200 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $4.62 | $409,992,200 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $4.62 | $409,992,200 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $4.62 | $409,992,200 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $4.62 | $409,992,200 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $4.62 | $409,992,200 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $4.62 | $409,992,200 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $4.62 | $409,992,200 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $4.62 | $409,992,200 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $4.62 | $409,992,200 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $4.62 | $409,992,200 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $4.62 | $409,992,200 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $4.62 | $409,992,200 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $4.62 | $409,992,200 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $4.62 | $409,992,200 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $4.62 | $409,992,200 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $4.62 | $409,992,200 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $4.62 | $409,992,200 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $4.62 | $409,992,200 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $4.62 | $409,992,200 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $4.62 | $409,992,200 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $4.62 | $409,992,200 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $4.62 | $409,992,200 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $4.62 | $409,992,200 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $4.62 | $409,992,200 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $4.62 | $409,992,200 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $4.64 | $409,992,200 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $4.64 | $409,992,200 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $4.64 | $409,992,200 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $4.64 | $409,992,200 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $4.64 | $409,992,200 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $4.64 | $409,992,200 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $4.64 | $409,992,200 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $4.64 | $409,992,200 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $4.64 | $409,992,200 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $4.64 | $409,992,200 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $4.64 | $409,992,200 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $4.64 | $409,992,200 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $4.64 | $409,992,200 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $4.64 | $409,992,200 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $4.64 | $408,295,467 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $4.66 | $407,884,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $4.66 | $407,884,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $4.67 | $409,645,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $4.67 | $409,645,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $4.67 | $409,645,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $4.67 | $409,645,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $4.67 | $409,645,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $4.67 | $409,645,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $4.67 | $409,645,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $4.67 | $409,645,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $4.67 | $409,645,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $4.67 | $409,645,000 | 2 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.