Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-07-07
$516.11-6.51%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 9 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $516.11. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $516 AMD trades at 23× p/s — 2.2× the 10× p/s peer median, and above its own 12× history. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $307 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts target $260–$700. The flat-multiple read looks rich, but earnings are inflecting up — trailing growth is accelerating and forward estimates confirm — so we've softened our read rather than brand an accelerating name expensive. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $500.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $142.40 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $144.33 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| graham number | 12M | $63.45 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 25% on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$260.00 – $700.00 (median $500.00) · 30 analysts · as of 2026-07-06
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 1056% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 6.0 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $3.90/sh owner earnings.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| $261.37 |
| 50.3 |
| 5.20 |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $336.04 | 73.4 | 4.58 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $237.98 | 10.5 | 22.70 | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $288.06 | 62.9 | 4.58 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $341.82 | 73.4 | 4.66 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $397.52 | 50.3 | 7.90 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | low |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $279.05 | 10.5 | 26.62 | guidance | low |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $525.72 | 50.3 | 10.45 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $137.59 | 10.5 | 13.12 | guidance | medium |