Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-27 · fmp
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$488.78+1.01%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
15.89 → 16.38 EPS · FY ending Dec 27, 2027 · 31 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 32 to 31; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for AMD yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Data Center segment revenue growth to sustain AI infrastructure expansion | Data center revenue rose 57% to $5.8 billion. | Intact | Data Center revenue falls below $3.7B (2025-Q1 level) in any quarter | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-27 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
AMD is a growth-oriented semiconductor business whose multi-year case depends on expanding AI infrastructure and product adoption. The thesis is intact, supported by strong recent financial performance, though the overall signal has shifted from mildly favorable to mixed.
AMD is valued at a substantial premium to peers, and the evidence describes that premium as durable and currently justified. The expectations gap is negative, which points to meaningful expectations already reflected in valuation, while confidence in that assessment is low.
Near-term fundamentals have been strong: Data Center revenue more than doubled year over year through 2026 Q2, and management’s Q3 revenue guidance implies continued growth. Management has consistently prioritized AI infrastructure, but partnership execution is mixed and product delivery remains a watch item; elevated risk and a history of a deep miss add uncertainty.
The multi-year case hinges on AMD converting AI partnerships and new products into sustained infrastructure growth. A guidance cut on the next call is a meaningful downside risk to the business outlook, while easing rates or stabilization among major technology peers could improve the sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, AMD’s long-term thesis rests on continued AI-led growth and reliable execution, against an expensive valuation and elevated risks. The thesis remains intact, but the evidence is mixed and confidence is medium. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Gross profit grew from $3.7 billion to $5.4 billion in one year. |
| Intact |
| Gross profit falls below $3.7B (2025-Q1 level) in any quarter |
Gross profit: $7.21B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $5.4B gross profit by 2026-Q1. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 4, 20267,210,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 5 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Customer engagement around MI450 Series and Helios is strengthening, with leading customer forecasts exceeding our initial expectations and a growing pipeline of large-scale deployments providing us with increasing visibility into our growth trajectory."” “◦ Oracle and AMD announced that Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) will offer the first publicly available AI supercluster powered by the AMD “Helios” rack design with AMD Instinct MI450 GPUs, EPYC “Venice” CPUs and Pensando™ “Vulcano” networking, with an initial deployment of 50,000 GPUs starting in Q3 2026.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Revenue growth driven by expanding strategic partnerships | Strategic partnerships and product innovation drive growth. | Intact | Total revenue falls below $7.4B (2025-Q1 level) in any quarter | Revenue: $13.377B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $10.3B total revenue by 2026-Q1. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 4, 202613,377,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Sustain gross margin near 56% as guided | A supporting condition in Advanced Micro Devices's published investment case. The stated target is 56% gross margin. | Improving | Gross margin falls below 54% in 2026-Q2 | Gross margin: 53.9% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: 56% gross margin. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 4, 202653.898482 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$13.52 → $16.38 · observed estimates
$78.11B → $91.18B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $13.52 | $78,110,810,111 | 29 / 36 |
| 2026-07-25 | $13.52 | $78,110,810,111 | 29 / 36 |
| 2026-07-26 | $13.69 | $78,902,515,333 | 29 / 36 |
| 2026-07-27 | $13.69 | $78,902,515,333 | 29 / 36 |
| 2026-07-28 | $13.69 | $78,902,515,333 | 29 / 36 |
| 2026-07-29 | $13.75 | $79,271,175,333 | 29 / 36 |
| 2026-07-30 | $13.75 | $79,271,175,333 | 29 / 36 |
| 2026-07-31 | $13.75 | $79,271,175,333 | 29 / 36 |
| 2026-08-01 | $13.75 | $79,271,175,333 | 29 / 36 |
| 2026-08-02 | $13.79 | $79,407,395,333 | 29 / 36 |
| 2026-08-03 | $13.79 | $79,407,395,333 | 29 / 36 |
| 2026-08-04 | $13.87 | $79,787,776,643 | 29 / 36 |
| 2026-08-05 | $13.87 | $79,787,776,643 | 29 / 36 |
| 2026-08-06 | $13.87 | $79,787,776,643 | 29 / 36 |
| 2026-08-07 | $15.10 | $86,092,043,224 | 29 / 36 |
| 2026-08-08 | $15.10 | $86,092,043,224 | 29 / 36 |
| 2026-08-09 | $15.10 | $86,092,043,224 | 29 / 36 |
| 2026-08-10 | $15.10 | $86,092,043,224 | 29 / 36 |
| 2026-08-11 | $15.10 | $86,092,043,224 | 29 / 36 |
| 2026-08-12 | $15.10 | $86,092,043,224 | 29 / 36 |
| 2026-08-13 | $15.10 | $86,092,043,224 | 29 / 36 |
| 2026-08-14 | $15.10 | $86,092,043,224 | 29 / 36 |
| 2026-08-15 | $15.10 | $86,092,043,224 | 29 / 36 |
| 2026-08-16 | $15.10 | $86,092,043,224 | 29 / 36 |
| 2026-08-17 | $15.10 | $86,092,043,224 | 29 / 36 |
| 2026-08-18 | $15.10 | $86,092,043,224 | 29 / 36 |
| 2026-08-19 | $15.10 | $86,092,043,224 | 29 / 36 |
| 2026-08-20 | $15.10 | $86,092,043,224 | 29 / 36 |
| 2026-08-21 | $15.71 | $88,565,838,788 | 30 / 37 |
| 2026-08-22 | $15.72 | $88,658,433,915 | 30 / 38 |
| 2026-08-23 | $15.74 | $88,820,109,621 | 30 / 38 |
| 2026-08-24 | $15.74 | $88,820,109,621 | 30 / 38 |
| 2026-08-25 | $15.74 | $88,820,109,621 | 30 / 38 |
| 2026-08-26 | $15.71 | $88,725,155,455 | 31 / 39 |
| 2026-08-27 | $15.71 | $88,725,155,455 | 31 / 39 |
| 2026-08-28 | $15.71 | $88,725,155,455 | 31 / 39 |
| 2026-08-29 | $15.73 | $88,837,086,705 | 31 / 39 |
| 2026-08-30 | $15.73 | $88,837,086,705 | 31 / 39 |
| 2026-08-31 | $15.73 | $88,837,086,705 | 31 / 39 |
| 2026-09-01 | $15.73 | $88,837,086,705 | 31 / 39 |
| 2026-09-02 | $15.73 | $88,837,086,705 | 31 / 39 |
| 2026-09-03 | $15.73 | $88,837,086,705 | 31 / 39 |
| 2026-09-04 | $15.73 | $88,837,086,705 | 31 / 39 |
| 2026-09-05 | $15.73 | $88,837,094,463 | 31 / 39 |
| 2026-09-06 | $15.73 | $88,837,094,463 | 31 / 39 |
| 2026-09-07 | $15.73 | $88,837,094,463 | 31 / 39 |
| 2026-09-08 | $15.73 | $88,837,094,463 | 31 / 39 |
| 2026-09-09 | $15.73 | $88,935,218,526 | 31 / 39 |
| 2026-09-10 | $15.56 | $88,935,218,526 | 31 / 39 |
| 2026-09-11 | $15.75 | $88,953,050,801 | 31 / 39 |
| 2026-09-12 | $15.84 | $88,953,050,801 | 31 / 40 |
| 2026-09-13 | $15.84 | $88,953,050,801 | 32 / 40 |
| 2026-09-14 | $15.84 | $88,953,050,801 | 32 / 40 |
| 2026-09-15 | $15.84 | $88,953,050,801 | 32 / 40 |
| 2026-09-16 | $15.88 | $89,105,989,785 | 32 / 40 |
| 2026-09-17 | $15.88 | $89,105,989,785 | 32 / 40 |
| 2026-09-18 | $15.88 | $89,105,989,785 | 32 / 40 |
| 2026-09-19 | $15.88 | $89,105,989,785 | 32 / 40 |
| 2026-09-20 | $15.88 | $89,359,173,250 | 32 / 40 |
| 2026-09-21 | $15.88 | $89,359,173,250 | 32 / 40 |
| 2026-09-22 | $15.88 | $89,359,173,250 | 32 / 40 |
| 2026-09-23 | $15.88 | $89,359,173,627 | 32 / 40 |
| 2026-09-24 | $15.88 | $89,359,173,627 | 32 / 40 |
| 2026-09-25 | $15.88 | $89,359,173,627 | 32 / 40 |
| 2026-09-26 | $15.90 | $89,386,465,498 | 32 / 40 |
| 2026-09-27 | $15.90 | $89,386,465,498 | 32 / 40 |
| 2026-09-28 | $15.90 | $89,386,465,498 | 32 / 40 |
| 2026-09-29 | $15.90 | $89,386,465,498 | 32 / 40 |
| 2026-09-30 | $15.88 | $89,276,818,560 | 32 / 40 |
| 2026-10-01 | $15.88 | $89,276,818,560 | 32 / 40 |
| 2026-10-02 | $15.88 | $89,276,818,560 | 32 / 40 |
| 2026-10-03 | $15.89 | $89,417,349,172 | 32 / 40 |
| 2026-10-04 | $15.89 | $89,417,349,172 | 32 / 40 |
| 2026-10-05 | $15.89 | $89,417,349,172 | 32 / 40 |
| 2026-10-06 | $16.03 | $90,106,234,407 | 32 / 40 |
| 2026-10-07 | $16.03 | $90,106,234,407 | 32 / 40 |
| 2026-10-08 | $16.04 | $90,167,458,896 | 32 / 40 |
| 2026-10-09 | $16.04 | $90,167,458,896 | 32 / 40 |
| 2026-10-10 | $16.04 | $90,167,458,896 | 32 / 40 |
| 2026-10-11 | $16.04 | $90,167,458,896 | 32 / 39 |
| 2026-10-12 | $16.04 | $90,167,458,896 | 32 / 39 |
| 2026-10-13 | $16.04 | $90,167,458,896 | 32 / 39 |
| 2026-10-14 | $16.04 | $90,167,458,896 | 32 / 39 |
| 2026-10-15 | $16.04 | $90,167,560,937 | 32 / 39 |
| 2026-10-16 | $16.07 | $90,285,950,733 | 32 / 39 |
| 2026-10-17 | $16.07 | $90,285,950,733 | 32 / 39 |
| 2026-10-18 | $16.07 | $90,285,950,733 | 32 / 40 |
| 2026-10-19 | $16.07 | $90,285,950,733 | 32 / 40 |
| 2026-10-20 | $16.08 | $90,321,889,509 | 32 / 40 |
| 2026-10-21 | $16.08 | $90,321,889,509 | 32 / 40 |
| 2026-10-22 | $16.14 | $90,410,124,203 | 32 / 40 |
| 2026-10-23 | $16.14 | $90,410,124,203 | 32 / 40 |
| 2026-10-24 | $16.14 | $90,410,124,203 | 32 / 40 |
| 2026-10-25 | $16.14 | $90,410,124,203 | 32 / 40 |
| 2026-10-26 | $16.14 | $90,410,124,203 | 32 / 40 |
| 2026-10-27 | $16.14 | $90,410,124,203 | 32 / 40 |
| 2026-10-28 | $16.17 | $90,538,651,742 | 32 / 40 |
| 2026-10-29 | $16.25 | $90,661,508,885 | 32 / 40 |
| 2026-10-30 | $16.25 | $90,661,508,885 | 32 / 40 |
| 2026-10-31 | $16.28 | $90,741,870,180 | 32 / 40 |
| 2026-11-01 | $16.28 | $90,741,860,515 | 32 / 40 |
| 2026-11-02 | $16.28 | $90,741,860,515 | 32 / 40 |
| 2026-11-03 | $16.29 | $90,769,598,067 | 31 / 39 |
| 2026-11-04 | $16.38 | $91,179,393,260 | 31 / 39 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 44 Buy / Strong Buy · 11 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 21 recorded
7 raises · 4 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.