Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$477.57+4.69%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AMD
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 37.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 79.2% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 41.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 71 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
AMD — debt issuance
Dated 2026-08-17
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement On August 17, 2026 (the “Closing Date”), Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (the “Company”) closed its public offering (the “Offering”) of $4.75 billion aggregate principal amount of senior notes, consisting of $1.25 billion aggregate principal amount of its 4.600% Senior Notes due 2029 (the “2029 Notes”), $1.50 billion aggregate principal amount of its 5.000% Senior Notes due 2031 (the “2031 Notes”), $1.00 billion aggregate principal amount of its 5.250%…
Why it matters: News on partnerships could show AMD's chance to gain more market share in AI.
Supportive ifNew partnerships or expansions with major cloud providers like AWS or Google Cloud.
Worry ifNo new partnerships or bad news about current projects.
Why it matters: Strong demand signals from cloud customers would support AMD's growth narrative in AI.
Supportive ifBig cloud customers say they will use more AMD AI products.
Worry ifCloud customers say they will cut or delay AI investments.
Why it matters: This facility will help AMD grow and manage its money better.
Watch forAMD uses the credit facility wisely. They make smart investments and purchases.
Also watch forAMD does not use the credit facility well. This may show money management issues.
Why it matters: This partnership could improve AMD's manufacturing and speed up AI product launches.
Supportive ifAMD shares goals met in the partnership with Sanmina for AI solutions.
Worry ifAMD reports delays or setbacks in the partnership's progress.
Why it matters: AMD's growth in AI infrastructure is vital for its long-term strategy. Strong growth signals market strength.
Supportive ifData Center segment revenue grows year over year by more than 50%.
Worry ifData Center segment revenue growth falls below 30% year over year.
Why it matters: If AMD meets or beats guidance, it shows strong demand for its AI products.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue reported at $11.2 billion or higher, confirming strong demand.
Worry ifQ2 revenue was below $10.9 billion. This shows weaker demand.
Why it matters: New AI products can drive sales and strengthen AMD's competitive position.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of new AI-optimized CPUs or GPUs in the next quarter.
Worry ifNo new AI product announcements in the next quarter.
Why it matters: This sale is important for AMD's plan to improve AI tools. It shows AMD's focus on working with others and making products.
Supportive ifThe deal closes well. AMD keeps ZT Systems' design and customer support teams.
Worry ifThe transaction fails to close or AMD loses key teams in the process.
Why it matters: The gross margin shows how well costs are managed and prices are set. A drop could mean trouble in making money.
Worry ifQ3 gross margin guidance remains at or above 56%.
Less concerning ifQ3 gross margin guidance drops below 56%.
Why it matters: This partnership could enhance AMD's position in AI infrastructure and drive future growth.
Supportive ifAMD shares new projects or partnerships from the OpenAI deal.
Worry ifNo news or progress on the partnership. This may mean no growth.
Why it matters: Strong growth in Data Center revenue is key to AMD's overall performance. Exceeding 50% YoY growth would confirm management's positive outlook.
Supportive ifData Center revenue for Q3 2026 exceeds $6.7 billion, which is over 50% growth YoY.
Worry ifData Center revenue growth falls below 50% YoY.
Why it matters: New partnerships can help AMD grow in AI. They show AMD's plan to expand.
Supportive ifAMD announces a new partnership with a major cloud provider or AI company.
Worry ifNo new partnerships are announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: If AMD meets this guidance, it will boost growth and investor trust.
Supportive ifAMD reports Q3 revenue of $13 billion or higher.
Worry ifAMD reports Q3 revenue below $12.7 billion.
Why it matters: Updates on Helios deployments show AMD's success in AI demand. This is key for growth.
Supportive ifAMD shares updates that Helios deployments are growing with major clients.
Worry ifNo updates or slow progress on Helios deployments.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$334 on $10,000 · ±3.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $590 loss on $10,000 · 5.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,776 loss on $10,000 · 27.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.