Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-05
$404.40-17.26%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AMD
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 13.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 84.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 70.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 49 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
AMD — capital allocation — Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities
Dated 2026-09-28
Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities On September 26, 2026, Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger (the “Merger Agreement”) to acquire all of the equity interests in World Labs Technologies, Inc. (“World Labs”) (the “Acquisition”) for a total purchase price of approximately $8.2 billion to be paid in shares of the Company’s common stock, par value $0.01 per share (“Common Stock”), to stockholders of World Labs, subject to customary adjustm…
Why it matters: Data Center sales reached $6.7 billion in Q2. Management said sales would accelerate in the second half of 2026.
Supportive ifQ3 Data Center revenue is above $6.7 billion, the Q2 level.
Worry ifQ3 Data Center revenue is $6.7 billion or less.
Why it matters: AMD agreed to pay about $8.2 billion in shares. Watch for deal updates that confirm or change the planned share payment.
Worry ifA filing confirms the deal closes with AMD shares issued near the stated $8.2 billion value.
Less concerning ifA filing reports the deal is ended or changed so AMD issues no shares.
Why it matters: AMD set Q3 revenue guidance near $13 billion, plus or minus $300 million. Results at or above $12.7 billion would meet its stated range.
Supportive ifOn the November 3 report, Q3 revenue is at least $12.7 billion.
Worry ifOn the November 3 report, Q3 revenue is below $12.7 billion.
Why it matters: AMD's Q3 outlook called for a 56% non-GAAP gross margin. A lower result would miss that stated mark.
Watch forQ3 non-GAAP gross margin is at least 56%, confirming the stated margin outlook.
Also watch forQ3 non-GAAP gross margin is below 56%, missing the stated outlook.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$254 on $10,000 · ±2.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $694 loss on $10,000 · 6.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,773 loss on $10,000 · 37.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.