Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Affiliated Managers Group (AMG)
NYSEFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-11-04
$350.54-3.83%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
43.13 → 43.42 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 4 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for AMG yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Effective capital allocation via share buybacks and dividend stability | AMG also supports shareholders with share buybacks and a stable dividend. | Intact | Dividend cut or suspension of share buybacks | Dividend maintained at $0.01/share; buybacks active AMG declared a $0.01 quarterly dividend and renewed a $1.25B credit facility, supporting ongoing capital allocation. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
AMG is a financial business with strong recent results and robust earnings quality, rather than a turnaround story. Its long-term thesis is intact, but confidence has eased from high to medium and management execution is rated volatile.
The evidence describes AMG as expensive in its overall value assessment, while also indicating that it is cheap versus peers. Expectations appear broadly justified, and the priced-in fragility assessment is low. The valuation signals are mixed, so the expectations gap is not clear-cut.
Near-term results have been strong: economic earnings per share and assets under management grew, with record alternative-strategy inflows in the second quarter of 2026. Management priorities are on track, including earnings growth and disciplined capital allocation. Near-term miss risk is rated low, but the snapshot notes past misses among peers and a deep miss in AMG’s recent history.
Over the next few quarters, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while continued earnings strength from sector bellwethers such as BLK, BX, and KKR could support sector momentum. Rate cuts from the current 3.88% could weigh on financial companies, according to the evidence. Over the multi-year view, sustained alternative-strategy asset growth and management execution remain central.
For the next one to three years, AMG’s thesis rests on whether strong earnings and alternative-strategy growth continue despite management volatility and rate sensitivity. The thesis is intact, but confidence is medium. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company guides economic earnings per share at $8.23 for 2026, showing a clear target. |
| Intact |
| Economic EPS falls below $8.23 in FY26 |
Diluted EPS: $6.95 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=8.23 USD per share. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 7, 20266.95 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Economic earnings per share grew from $5.39 in 2025-Q2 to $8.29 in 2026-Q2 (+54%), with full-year 2025 Economic EPS up 22% year-over-year to $26.05. Management's focus on organic growth in alternative strategies and disciplined capital allocation is delivering consistent earnings growth. Delivery assessment Oct 28, 2026 |
Stabilize management team and execution | A supporting condition in Affiliated Managers Group's published investment case. The stated target is No further key executive departures; stable leadership. | Intact | Additional key executive departures or leadership instability | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth near 15% year over year | A primary condition in Affiliated Managers Group's published investment case. The stated target is >=15% YoY. | Intact | Revenue growth falls below 15% YoY next year | Revenue growth: 29.91% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=15% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 7, 202629.906732 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$28.22 → $43.42 · observed estimates
$2.67B → $2.70B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $28.22 | $2,666,594,130 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $28.22 | $2,666,594,130 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-07-26 | $28.22 | $2,666,594,130 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $28.22 | $2,666,594,130 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-07-28 | $28.22 | $2,666,594,130 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $28.22 | $2,666,594,130 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-07-30 | $28.22 | $2,666,594,130 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $28.22 | $2,666,594,130 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $28.22 | $2,666,594,130 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-02 | $29.17 | $2,716,766,730 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $29.17 | $2,716,766,730 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $29.17 | $2,716,766,730 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $30.59 | $2,678,341,930 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $30.59 | $2,678,341,930 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-07 | $42.70 | $2,702,260,108 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $30.59 | $2,702,813,710 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $30.59 | $2,702,813,710 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $30.59 | $2,702,813,710 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-11 | $42.70 | $2,702,260,108 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $30.59 | $2,702,813,710 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $30.59 | $2,702,813,710 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $42.70 | $2,702,260,108 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $42.70 | $2,702,260,108 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $42.70 | $2,702,260,108 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $42.70 | $2,702,260,108 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $42.70 | $2,702,260,108 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $42.70 | $2,702,260,108 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $43.15 | $2,702,260,108 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $43.15 | $2,702,260,108 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $43.15 | $2,702,260,108 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $43.15 | $2,702,260,108 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $43.15 | $2,702,260,108 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $43.15 | $2,702,260,108 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $43.15 | $2,702,260,108 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $43.15 | $2,702,260,108 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $43.15 | $2,702,260,108 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $43.15 | $2,702,260,108 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $43.15 | $2,702,260,108 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $43.15 | $2,702,260,108 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $43.15 | $2,702,260,108 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $43.15 | $2,702,260,108 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $43.15 | $2,702,260,108 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $43.15 | $2,702,260,108 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $43.15 | $2,702,260,108 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $43.15 | $2,702,260,108 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $43.15 | $2,702,260,108 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $43.15 | $2,702,260,108 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $43.15 | $2,702,260,108 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $43.15 | $2,702,260,108 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $43.15 | $2,702,260,108 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $43.15 | $2,702,260,108 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $43.15 | $2,702,260,108 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $43.15 | $2,702,260,108 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $43.15 | $2,702,260,108 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $43.15 | $2,702,260,108 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $43.15 | $2,702,260,108 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $43.15 | $2,702,260,108 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $43.15 | $2,702,260,108 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $43.15 | $2,702,260,108 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $43.15 | $2,702,260,108 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $43.15 | $2,702,260,108 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $43.15 | $2,702,260,108 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $43.15 | $2,702,260,108 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $43.15 | $2,702,260,108 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $43.15 | $2,702,260,108 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $43.15 | $2,702,260,108 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $43.15 | $2,702,260,108 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $43.15 | $2,702,260,108 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $43.15 | $2,702,260,108 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $43.15 | $2,702,260,108 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $43.15 | $2,702,260,108 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $43.13 | $2,702,036,108 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $43.13 | $2,702,036,108 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $43.13 | $2,702,036,108 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $43.20 | $2,697,385,935 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $43.18 | $2,702,192,966 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $43.18 | $2,702,201,216 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $43.08 | $2,702,201,216 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $43.08 | $2,702,201,216 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $43.08 | $2,702,201,216 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $43.08 | $2,702,201,216 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $43.15 | $2,702,201,216 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $43.43 | $2,702,201,216 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $43.42 | $2,701,556,716 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $43.42 | $2,701,556,716 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $43.42 | $2,701,556,716 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $43.42 | $2,701,556,716 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $43.42 | $2,701,556,716 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $43.42 | $2,701,556,716 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $43.42 | $2,701,556,716 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $43.42 | $2,701,556,716 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $43.42 | $2,701,556,716 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $43.42 | $2,701,556,716 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $43.42 | $2,701,556,716 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $43.42 | $2,701,556,716 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $43.42 | $2,701,556,716 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $43.42 | $2,701,556,716 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $43.42 | $2,701,556,716 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $43.42 | $2,701,556,716 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $43.42 | $2,701,556,716 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $43.42 | $2,701,556,716 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $43.42 | $2,701,556,716 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $43.42 | $2,701,556,716 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $43.42 | $2,701,556,716 | 4 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.