American Homes 4 Rent (AMH)
NYSEReal EstateReit - ResidentialSnapshot 2026-11-04
$33.09+1.41%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - ResidentialSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AMH
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
No current thesis-health read is available for this company.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 5.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 55.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to real (inflation-adjusted) rates and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 50.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 11 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
Why it matters: High occupancy and rent growth support same-home revenue. July results were strong, but new lease growth was below renewal growth.
Watch forQ3 same-home occupied days are at least 96.0%, and blended lease growth is at least 2.7%.
Also watch forQ3 same-home occupied days fall below 95.1%, or blended lease growth falls below 2.2%.
Why it matters: AMH raised its 2026 Core FFO range in July. Q3 results will show whether earnings growth stays on that path.
Supportive ifOn November 4, AMH keeps its 2026 Core FFO range at $1.93 to $1.97 per share and unit, or raises it.
Worry ifOn November 4, AMH cuts the 2026 Core FFO range below $1.93 per share and unit.
Why it matters: In Q2, same-home rent growth exceeded cost growth, lifting NOI. Faster costs could narrow that gain.
Supportive ifFull-year same-home cost growth stays at or below 2.75%, while revenue growth stays at or above 1.50%.
Worry ifFull-year same-home cost growth rises above 3.00%, or revenue growth falls below 1.50%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$84 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $193 loss on $10,000 · 1.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,451 loss on $10,000 · 14.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.