American Homes 4 Rent (AMH)
NYSEReal EstateReit - ResidentialSnapshot 2026-09-04
$32.47-0.73%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - ResidentialSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AMH
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
No current thesis-health read is available for this company.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 5.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 47.1% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 41.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 16 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
Review the full earnings evidenceWhy it matters: Meeting delivery targets is key for growth and keeping market share in rentals.
Supportive ifManagement plans to deliver 1,700 to 2,100 homes through the AMH Program in 2026.
Worry ifDeliveries fall below 1,700 homes for the full year 2026.
Why it matters: An increase in dividends shows financial strength and commitment to shareholders. It can boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifDividend per share reported at $0.34 or higher for Q2 2026.
Worry ifDividend per share reported at $0.33 or lower for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Higher dividends show the company is strong. It also shows they care about giving value to shareholders.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a dividend increase beyond $0.33 per share.
Worry ifNo dividend increase announced by the next earnings call.
Why it matters: Core FFO per share is a key measure of profitability. It impacts investor confidence.
Supportive ifCore FFO per share remains between $1.89 and $1.95 for full year 2026.
Worry ifCore FFO per share falls below $1.89 for full year 2026.
Why it matters: News about share buybacks shows management's trust in the stock and spending plans.
Supportive ifManagement announces more share buybacks beyond the current $500 million plan.
Worry ifNo new announcements on share repurchases or a halt in the current program.
Why it matters: A decline below 95% would signal weakening demand and could impact rental revenue growth.
Worry ifThe Same-Home Average Occupied Days Percentage has been over 96% for two months.
Less concerning ifThe Same-Home Average Occupied Days Percentage has been under 95% for two months.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how well AMH is doing. They will also hint at what is coming next.
Watch forQ2 earnings report shows Core FFO per share above $0.48.
Also watch forQ2 earnings report shows Core FFO per share below $0.48.
Why it matters: Rental rate growth affects revenue and reflects demand in the rental market. This is key for financial health.
Supportive ifBlended rental rate growth exceeds 2.8% in Q3.
Worry ifBlended rental rate growth falls below 2.0% in Q3.
Why it matters: Occupancy rates are crucial for rental income. A drop below 95% could signal demand weakness.
Worry ifIf occupancy rates stay at or above 95%, it shows strong demand for rentals.
Less concerning ifIf occupancy rates fall below 95%, it may mean there are issues in the rental market.
Why it matters: Active buybacks signal management's confidence in the stock and can support share price.
Supportive ifThey announced share buybacks of over $100 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifThere was no share buyback activity in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Share buybacks show that management thinks the company is valuable.
Supportive ifIf the company announces more share buybacks beyond $500 million, it shows strong capital use.
Worry ifNo new share repurchase announcements would suggest a lack of confidence in the stock's value.
Why it matters: Core NOI growth is key for AMH's financial health. It shows how well the company manages its properties.
Supportive ifCore NOI growth from Same-Home properties remains between 1% and 3% for Q2 2026.
Worry ifCore NOI growth falls below 1% for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Revisions to Core FFO guidance would signal management's confidence in earnings growth. This is key for investors.
Supportive ifManagement raises Core FFO guidance midpoint above $1.95 per share for 2026.
Worry ifManagement lowers Core FFO guidance midpoint below $1.92 per share for 2026.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$75 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $200 loss on $10,000 · 2.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,904 loss on $10,000 · 19.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.