Reading AMSF? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AMSF free→Reading AMSF? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AMSF free→NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and earnings quality is fragile, indicating that reported profits are not well backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and the company has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact performance compared to sector peers, where it is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 38% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $31.53. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $32 the market pays 15× p/e — above the 11× p/e peer median but in line with its own 16× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $23 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 38% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 8%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 0 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=3730).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.22x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated fragile grew net income 49% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, the US dollar.
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.53 → $0.52 (-1.3% / 30d). 0 raised, 2 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 33% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$97.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$240.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,362.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This report will show how the company performed in a challenging sector environment. It is key for future outlook.
Confirms one read:Earnings are better than analyst expectations. Revenue growth is over 12%.
Confirms the other:Earnings miss expectations and revenue growth drops below 12%.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for AMSF yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer — Guillermo A. Ramos: The company hired a new CFO from an external source.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Property & Casualty Insurance.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
AMSF Amerisafe, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 30 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
CB Chubb Limited | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 69 of 100 | full | moderate |
PGR Progressive Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 76 of 100 | fair | moderate |
TRV Travelers Companies (The) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 87 of 100 | fair | low |
ALL Allstate | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 86 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on increasing gross premiums written through strong new business production and premium retention.
Improve operating scale to enhance the underwriting expense ratio.
Drive growth in voluntary premiums through strong new business production and premium retention.
Why it matters: A drop in sector revenue growth could mean bigger problems for Amerisafe.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth falls below its historical median.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth is higher than usual. It is still above its past average.
Why it matters: The new CFO may change how the company reports its financials. This could affect investor confidence.
Confirms one read:The first earnings report with the new CFO shows more clarity and transparency.
Confirms the other:The earnings report is unclear. It raises new worries about money management.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 22, 2026, AMERISAFE, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the Company’s press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K.