Amazon (AMZN)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
$258.51-0.15%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AMZN
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $259 AMZN trades at 30× p/e — 2.0× the 15× p/e peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $182 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts target $305–$390. Note: our $182 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($305–$390). Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $328.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| graham number | 12M | $98.71 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $158.66 | 10.4 | 14.57 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $172.47 | 15.3 | 11.30 | ntm analyst | high |
| Peer P/S |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$305.00 – $390.00 (median $328.00) · 33 analysts · as of 2026-09-03
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality. Capped at elevated by the Mania regime.
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 475% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 19.3 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $3.16/sh owner earnings.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| 12M |
| $58.40 |
| 0.8 |
| 71.14 |
| TTM |
| high |
| PEG | 12M | $220.54 | 25.8 | 8.56 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $64.20 | — | — | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $142.74 | 15.1 | 9.44 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $228.09 | 15.3 | 14.94 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $91.28 | 0.8 | 111.18 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $335.42 | 25.8 | 13.02 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $301.65 | 15.3 | 19.76 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $120.71 | 0.8 | 147.04 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 5Y | $443.59 | 25.8 | 17.22 | Analyst | medium |