Amazon (AMZN)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
$266.03+6.12%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AMZN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 18.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 17.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 0.9 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 10 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
AMZN — earnings miss
Dated 2026-10-29
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION. On October 29, 2026, Amazon.com, Inc. announced its third quarter 2026 financial results. A copy of the press release containing the announcement is included as Exhibit 99.1 and additional information regarding the inclusion of non-GAAP financial measures in certain of Amazon.com, Inc.’s public disclosures, including its third quarter 2026 financial results announcement, is included as Exhibit 99.2. Both of these exhibits are incorporated herein…
Why it matters: AI spending helped push trailing-year free cash flow to a $42.4 billion outflow. The next reports will show whether cash use keeps rising.
Worry ifTrailing-year free cash flow remains an outflow in the next quarterly report.
Less concerning ifTrailing-year free cash flow returns to a positive balance in the next quarterly report.
Why it matters: Q3 sales grew 12%, below Q2's 20%. A faster pace would ease concern about slowing growth.
Watch forQ4 net sales growth is above 12% year over year.
Also watch forQ4 net sales growth is below 12% year over year.
Why it matters: AWS grew 39.3% in Q3. Management said growth could top 40% in both 2027 and 2028.
Supportive ifA 2027 quarterly report shows AWS sales growth above 40% year over year.
Worry ifA 2027 quarterly report shows AWS sales growth below 39% year over year.
Why it matters: North America sales grew 6% in Q3, down from 16% in Q2. A return above 10% would show faster growth.
Watch forNorth America sales growth rises above 10% year over year in a later quarter.
Also watch forNorth America sales growth stays at or below 6% year over year in a later quarter.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$131 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $300 loss on $10,000 · 3.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,055 loss on $10,000 · 20.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.