Amazon (AMZN)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
$258.51-0.15%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AMZN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 42.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 16.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 25.8 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 44 industry peers
AMZN — credit agreement
Dated 2026-06-10
ENTRY INTO A MATERIAL DEFINITIVE AGREEMENT. On June 8, 2026, Amazon.com, Inc. (the “Company”), Citibank N.A., as administrative agent, and the lenders party thereto entered into a term loan agreement (the “DDTL Credit Agreement”). The DDTL Credit Agreement provides the Company with a $17.5 billion senior unsecured delayed draw term loan credit facility (the “DDTL Facility”). Commitments to provide the DDTL Facility will expire on September 30, 2026 unless fully borrowed prior to such date. Th…
Why it matters: A decline in free cash flow could indicate financial strain and impact future investments.
Worry ifFree cash flow decreases further from $1.2 billion in Q1.
Less concerning ifFree cash flow stabilizes or increases from $1.2 billion in Q1.
Why it matters: A larger cash outflow could signal financial strain and impact future investments.
Worry ifFree cash flow reported as an outflow exceeding $10 billion for the trailing twelve months.
Less concerning ifFree cash flow remains an outflow below $10 billion.
Why it matters: Amazon is growing its fast delivery services. This shows they care about customers.
Supportive ifAmazon Now expands to 100 new cities within the next quarter.
Worry ifNo new cities added to Amazon Now service in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Good Prime Day results can increase revenue and customer interest a lot.
Supportive ifPrime Day sales exceed last year's total of $11 billion.
Worry ifPrime Day sales fall short of last year's total of $11 billion.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$123 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $313 loss on $10,000 · 3.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,174 loss on $10,000 · 21.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Amazon is investing more money. This shows they want to grow and create new things, especially in AI.
Supportive ifTotal capital spending is over $200 billion for 2026.
Worry ifCapital spending is below $180 billion for 2026.
Why it matters: AWS growth is key for Amazon's overall performance. Slowing growth may signal challenges.
Worry ifAWS revenue growth slows to less than 25% year over year in Q2.
Less concerning ifAWS revenue growth remains at or above 25% year over year in Q2.
Why it matters: Better free cash flow shows stronger finances. This helps invest in growth.
Supportive ifFree cash flow exceeds $5 billion in the next reporting period.
Worry ifFree cash flow remains below $1 billion.
Why it matters: Free cash flow shows Amazon can fund growth and investments without too much debt.
Watch forFree cash flow improves to a positive figure in Q3 2026.
Also watch forFree cash flow remains negative in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Sustained high growth in AWS is key to Amazon's overall success. It shows demand for cloud services is strong.
Supportive ifAWS revenue growth exceeds 35% year-over-year in Q3 2026.
Worry ifAWS revenue growth falls below 30% year-over-year in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Slow sales growth during Prime Day may show that shoppers are less interested and spending less.
Worry ifPrime Day sales grew less than 20% compared to last year.
Less concerning ifPrime Day sales growth exceeds 20% year-over-year.
Why it matters: Strong sales growth on Prime Day shows high consumer demand. It also shows good marketing.
Supportive ifPrime Day sales growth exceeds 30% year-over-year in June 2026.
Worry ifPrime Day sales growth falls below 20% year-over-year in June 2026.
Why it matters: Strong growth in advertising revenue shows Amazon is making money. It shows good customer engagement.
Supportive ifAdvertising revenue grows more than 25% year-over-year in Q3 2026.
Worry ifAdvertising revenue growth is less than 15% year-over-year in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: This acquisition will improve Amazon's satellite services. It will help reach more customers.
Supportive ifThe acquisition will close in 2027 after getting all approvals.
Worry ifThe acquisition may face big regulatory issues or not close by 2027.