Reading AN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AN free→Reading AN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AN free→NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto & Truck DealershipsSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been steady, and risk is moderate. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and compared with sector peers, AN is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 42% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples while earnings quality is fragile. This analysis is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $191.53. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $192 AN trades at 9× p/e, below its 16× p/e peer median. Our $332 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $208–$255. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 42% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 2%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated strong grew net income 70% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.27x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated fragile grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2427).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $5.49 → $5.41 (-1.5% / 30d). 5 raised, 5 cut, 11 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 71% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 22.0% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$109.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$281.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,139.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Stable gross profit is crucial for AutoNation's financial health. It impacts future growth potential.
Confirms:Gross profit margin remains above 20% in Q2 results.
Disproves:Gross profit margin drops below 18% in Q2 results.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for AN yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 1, 2026, AutoNation, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its results of operations for the fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information furnished pursuant to this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$208.00 – $255.00 (median $237.00) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-05-27
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Automotive Retail.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
AN AutoNation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 67 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
CVNA Carvana | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
ORLY O’Reilly Automotive | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
AZO AutoZone | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 45 of 100 | full | moderate |
PAG Penske Automotive Group | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | full | moderate |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated stable grew net income 55% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=483).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 0.0% avg surprise
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management aims to drive earnings per share growth through operational efficiency and strategic initiatives.
Management is committed to maintaining stable gross profit margins despite market fluctuations.
Management aims to enhance cash flow from operations through efficiency improvements.
Why it matters: Better cash flow shows good health for the business. It helps with future investments.
Confirms:Cash from operations increases by 15% or more in Q2.
Disproves:Cash from operations decreases or grows less than 5% in Q2.
Why it matters: If revenue growth drops, it signals a potential shift in the sector's growth phase.
Confirms:Revenue growth reported below the median for the sector.
Disproves:Revenue growth stays above the median for the sector.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if AutoNation is on track for EPS growth. This is key for investor confidence.
Confirms:Earnings per share (EPS) exceeds $1.50, indicating strong growth.
Disproves:EPS falls below $1.20, suggesting growth challenges.
Why it matters: How much people spend affects AutoNation's sales. Key reports will give us clues.
Confirms one read:Advance Monthly Retail Trade Report shows retail sales growth above 1.5%.
Confirms the other:Retail sales growth is below 0.5%. This shows weak spending by consumers.
The filing describes the approval of a new equity and incentive plan.