Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The Andersons, Inc. (ANDE)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesAgricultural Farm ProductsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$55.16-0.34%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesAgricultural Farm ProductsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
6.38 → 6.40 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ANDE yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Operate bio-based diesel feedstock facility by 2026-Q2 | A supporting condition in The Andersons, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Facility operational by 2026-Q2. | Intact | Facility not operational by 2026-Q2 | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 1 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “"We also expect to begin operating a bio-based diesel feedstock storage and blending facility at one of the Skyland locations later this quarter.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
ANDE is a cyclical agribusiness with a multi-year growth plan, not a steady, low-risk compounder. The long-term thesis is intact, and its recent signal improved from mixed to mildly favorable, though earnings quality is fragile and overall risk is elevated.
The valuation evidence points to ANDE being cheap versus peers, with a modest negative expectations gap. The model labels the current setup justified and fragility low, so the evidence does not suggest that expensive valuation is the main source of risk.
Near term, recent financial performance is strong, and diluted EPS rose from $0.97 in the first quarter of 2026 to $1.65 in the second; management continues to state a $7.00 EPS run-rate goal for 2028. Capacity and modernization spending is progressing, but completion of the bio-based diesel feedstock facility lacks confirming operating or financial measures. A guidance cut remains a risk, while weakening jobs data could weigh on cyclical businesses.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on ANDE maintaining execution and avoiding a guidance cut, while turning its facility and capacity plans into measurable results. Over the multi-year view, progress toward the 2028 EPS goal and continued strength at sector peers such as ADM, TSN, and BG are key swing factors; weaker jobs data and recession concerns could pressure the business backdrop.
The 1-to-3-year view is intact but carries elevated cyclical and execution risk, despite strong recent results and a valuation that appears cheap versus peers. The main test is whether management converts its stated growth plans into sustained, verifiable progress. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Complete $60 million ethanol facility expansion and modernize assets | It invests $60 million to expand ethanol capacity and modernize assets. | Intact | Expansion not completed by 2025-Q4 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “We are on track to complete several capital investments during 2026, including the addition of soybean meal export capacity at Port Houston, the replacement and modernization of grain storage at our Toledo port assets, and several corn and wheat cleaning projects within our current asset footprint.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Achieve 2026 EPS within $2.79 to $3.23 per share | A primary condition in The Andersons, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=2.79 USD per share. | Broken | EPS falls below $2.79 in FY26 | Diluted EPS: $1.36 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=2.79 USD per share. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 20261.36 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Sustain revenue growth near analyst consensus of 7% for next year | A supporting condition in The Andersons, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=7% YoY revenue growth. | Improving | Revenue growth falls below 7% YoY next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$6.03 → $6.40 · observed estimates
$12.18B → $12.16B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $6.03 | $12,179,533,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $6.03 | $12,179,533,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $6.03 | $12,179,533,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $6.03 | $12,179,533,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $6.03 | $12,179,533,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $6.03 | $12,179,533,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $6.03 | $12,514,150,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $6.03 | $12,179,533,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $6.03 | $12,179,533,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $6.03 | $12,179,533,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $6.03 | $12,179,533,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $6.03 | $12,179,533,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $6.03 | $12,179,533,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $6.03 | $12,179,533,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | $6.27 | $12,307,025,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $5.98 | $12,270,033,330 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $5.98 | $12,270,033,330 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $5.98 | $12,270,033,330 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-11 | $6.27 | $11,903,366,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $6.27 | $11,903,366,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $6.27 | $11,903,366,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $6.27 | $12,307,025,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $6.27 | $12,307,025,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $6.27 | $12,307,025,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $6.27 | $12,307,025,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $6.27 | $12,307,025,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $6.27 | $12,307,025,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $6.27 | $12,023,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $6.27 | $12,023,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $6.27 | $12,023,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $6.27 | $12,023,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $6.27 | $12,023,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $6.27 | $12,023,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $6.27 | $12,023,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $6.27 | $12,023,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $6.27 | $12,023,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $6.27 | $12,023,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $6.27 | $12,023,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $6.27 | $12,023,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $6.27 | $12,023,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $6.27 | $12,023,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $6.27 | $12,023,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $6.27 | $12,023,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $6.27 | $12,023,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $6.27 | $12,023,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $6.27 | $12,023,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $6.27 | $12,023,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $6.27 | $12,023,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $6.27 | $12,023,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $6.27 | $12,023,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $6.27 | $12,023,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $6.27 | $12,023,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $6.27 | $12,023,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $6.27 | $12,023,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $6.27 | $12,023,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $6.27 | $12,023,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $6.27 | $12,023,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $6.27 | $12,023,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $6.27 | $12,023,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $6.27 | $12,023,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $6.27 | $12,023,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $6.38 | $12,023,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $6.38 | $12,023,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $6.38 | $12,023,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $6.38 | $12,023,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $6.38 | $12,023,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $6.38 | $12,023,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $6.38 | $12,023,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $6.38 | $12,023,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $6.38 | $12,023,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $6.38 | $12,023,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $6.38 | $12,023,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $6.38 | $12,023,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $6.38 | $12,023,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $6.38 | $12,023,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $6.38 | $12,023,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $6.38 | $12,023,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $6.38 | $12,023,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $6.38 | $12,023,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $6.38 | $12,023,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $6.38 | $12,023,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $6.38 | $12,023,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $6.38 | $12,023,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $6.38 | $12,023,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $6.40 | $12,053,700,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $6.40 | $12,053,700,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $6.40 | $12,053,700,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $6.40 | $12,053,700,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $6.40 | $12,053,700,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $6.40 | $12,157,950,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $6.40 | $12,157,950,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $6.40 | $12,157,950,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $6.40 | $12,157,950,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $6.40 | $12,157,950,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $6.40 | $12,157,950,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $6.40 | $12,157,950,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $6.40 | $12,157,950,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $6.40 | $12,157,950,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $6.40 | $12,157,950,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $6.40 | $12,157,950,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $6.40 | $12,157,950,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $6.40 | $12,157,950,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $6.40 | $12,157,950,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $6.40 | $12,157,950,000 | 3 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.