Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Annexon, Inc. (ANNX)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$4.00-7.51%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ANNX yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve late-stage program milestones | It has advanced pipeline catalysts supporting late-stage program milestones. | Intact | Misses or delays key late-stage program milestones in 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 9, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is speculative clinical-stage growth, not an established earnings compounder: the company is loss-making, and the evidence confidence is low. The long-term thesis is on watch, with recent performance below its industry cohort and risk recently moving from elevated to high.
The snapshot provides no valuation or market-expectations evidence, so whether ANNX is cheap or expensive versus peers cannot be assessed. It does show an August earnings miss, but does not establish how much of that result or future trial progress is reflected in expectations.
Near term, ANNX is likely to remain loss-making as it invests in pivotal Phase 3 trials; research and development spending and net loss both rose from the first to the second quarter of 2026. Management remains on track with clinical advancement, but runway is a mixed area: cash declined modestly and a credit facility was secured, while the company still faces a high risk of missing expectations.
The multi-year thesis hinges on progress toward 2026 milestones for vonaprument and tanruprubart, including tanruprubart data and regulatory steps, alongside funding that supports runway into late 2027 and 2028. A guidance cut or weaker employment data would add near-term risk; continued strength among healthcare bellwethers could support the sector backdrop, though it does not resolve ANNX's clinical and funding uncertainty.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, ANNX remains a high-risk, loss-making clinical story with management priorities partly on track, but recent results and funding uncertainty keep the thesis on watch. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Annexon aims to fund operations into the second half of 2027. |
| Improving |
| Fails to secure funding to operate beyond mid-2027 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Reduce EPS loss | A supporting condition in Annexon, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is EPS loss improves to better than -0.98 in FY26 and -0.92 in FY27. | Broken | EPS loss worsens beyond -1.16 in FY26 or fails to improve in FY27 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.83 → $-0.99 · observed estimates
$0.04B → $0.04B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.83 | $40,998,421 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.83 | $40,998,421 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.86 | $37,827,746 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.86 | $37,827,746 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.86 | $37,827,746 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.86 | $37,827,746 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.96 | $37,827,750 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.96 | $37,827,750 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.96 | $37,827,750 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.99 | $40,380,520 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.99 | $40,380,520 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.99 | $40,380,520 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.99 | $40,380,520 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.99 | $40,380,520 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.87 | $40,380,521 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.99 | $40,380,520 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.99 | $40,380,520 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.99 | $40,380,520 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-11 | $-0.87 | $40,380,521 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.99 | $40,378,420 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.99 | $40,378,420 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.87 | $40,380,521 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.87 | $40,380,521 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.87 | $40,380,521 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.87 | $40,380,521 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.87 | $40,380,521 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.87 | $40,380,521 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.87 | $40,380,521 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-1.00 | $46,717,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-1.00 | $46,717,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-1.00 | $46,717,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-1.00 | $46,717,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-1.00 | $46,717,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-1.00 | $46,717,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-1.00 | $46,717,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-1.00 | $46,717,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-1.00 | $46,717,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-1.00 | $46,717,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-1.00 | $46,717,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-1.00 | $46,717,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-1.00 | $46,717,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.99 | $42,742,727 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.99 | $42,742,727 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.99 | $42,742,727 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.99 | $42,742,727 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.99 | $42,742,727 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.99 | $42,742,727 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.99 | $42,742,727 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.99 | $42,742,727 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.99 | $42,742,727 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.99 | $42,742,727 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.99 | $42,742,727 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.99 | $42,742,727 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.99 | $42,742,727 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.99 | $42,742,727 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.99 | $42,742,727 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.99 | $42,742,727 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.99 | $42,742,727 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.99 | $42,742,727 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.99 | $42,742,727 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.99 | $42,742,727 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.99 | $42,742,727 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.99 | $42,742,727 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.99 | $42,742,727 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.99 | $42,742,727 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.99 | $42,742,727 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.99 | $42,742,727 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.99 | $42,742,727 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.99 | $42,742,727 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-1.00 | $42,742,727 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-1.00 | $42,742,727 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-1.00 | $42,742,727 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-1.00 | $42,742,727 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-1.00 | $42,742,727 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-1.00 | $42,742,727 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-1.00 | $42,742,727 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-1.00 | $42,742,727 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-1.00 | $42,742,727 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-1.00 | $42,742,727 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-1.00 | $42,742,727 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-1.00 | $42,742,727 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-1.00 | $42,742,727 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-1.00 | $42,742,727 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-1.00 | $42,742,727 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-1.00 | $42,742,727 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-1.00 | $42,742,727 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.99 | $42,742,727 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.99 | $42,742,727 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.99 | $42,742,727 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.99 | $39,473,182 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.99 | $39,473,182 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.99 | $39,473,182 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.99 | $39,473,182 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.99 | $39,473,182 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.99 | $39,473,182 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.99 | $39,473,182 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.99 | $39,473,182 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.99 | $39,473,182 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.99 | $39,473,182 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.99 | $39,473,182 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.99 | $39,473,182 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.99 | $39,473,182 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.99 | $39,473,182 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.99 | $39,473,182 | 6 / 7 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.