Alto Neuroscience Inc (ANRO)
NYSEHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$21.87-6.14%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ANRO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -57.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | Not available |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A comparable growth gap is not available.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name operates in a high-miss-rate industry and has erratic recent earnings surprises. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 66 industry peers
ANRO — debt issuance
Dated 2026-07-14
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On July 13, 2026, Alto Neuroscience, Inc. (the “ Company ”) entered into an underwriting agreement (the “ Underwriting Agreement ”) with BofA Securities, Inc., as representative of the several underwriters set forth therein (collectively, the “ Underwriters ”), to issue and sell 3,776,436 shares of common stock of the Company, par value $0.0001 per share (“ Common Stock ”), in an underwritten registered direct offering (the “ Offering ”) pursuant to…
Why it matters: The Phase 3 start tests whether Alto can advance its lead drug on schedule. A delay would push back the planned trial path.
Supportive ifAlto starts the adjunctive ALTO-207 Phase 3 trial by early 2027, after FDA alignment on the trial design.
Worry ifThe trial has not started by the end of Q1 2027, or Alto reports a delay in FDA alignment.
Why it matters: The trial tests ALTO-300 in major depression. The readout will show whether the drug has a clear benefit in this study.
Watch forAlto reports Phase 2b results by June 30, 2027, and the trial meets its stated main goal.
Also watch forThe trial misses its stated main goal, or Alto moves the readout beyond June 30, 2027.
Why it matters: The trial tests ALTO-100 in bipolar depression. Its results will show whether the candidate met its study goal.
Watch forAlto reports ALTO-100 Phase 2b results by June 30, 2027, and the trial meets its stated main goal.
Also watch forThe trial misses its stated main goal, or Alto moves the readout beyond June 30, 2027.
Why it matters: This Phase 2b trial tests ALTO-207 as an add-on treatment for hard-to-treat depression. The main result is a key test of the drug in Alto's own study.
Watch forAlto reports results by December 31, 2027, and ALTO-207 meets the trial's main MADRS goal.
Also watch forThe trial misses its main MADRS goal, or Alto moves the readout beyond 2027.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$178 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $736 loss on $10,000 · 7.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,075 loss on $10,000 · 40.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The planned monotherapy trial would add a second way to test ALTO-207. The start depends on FDA alignment.
Supportive ifAlto reports FDA alignment and starts the ALTO-207 monotherapy Phase 3 trial in 2H 2027.
Worry ifFDA alignment remains unresolved, or Alto delays the planned 2H 2027 trial start.
Why it matters: Alto reported about $338 million in cash after its July financing and said it could fund planned work through 2030. Higher spending or a shorter runway could limit those plans.
Worry ifAlto says it lacks the cash to fund planned operations through 2030. It may also give a shorter estimate of how long its cash will last.
Less concerning ifAlto reports a cash balance and runway that still cover planned operations through 2030.