Alto Neuroscience Inc (ANRO)
NYSEHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$35.55-2.34%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ANRO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -3.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | Not available |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
A comparable growth gap is not available.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 398 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ANRO — debt issuance
Dated 2026-07-14
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On July 13, 2026, Alto Neuroscience, Inc. (the “ Company ”) entered into an underwriting agreement (the “ Underwriting Agreement ”) with BofA Securities, Inc., as representative of the several underwriters set forth therein (collectively, the “ Underwriters ”), to issue and sell 3,776,436 shares of common stock of the Company, par value $0.0001 per share (“ Common Stock ”), in an underwritten registered direct offering (the “ Offering ”) pursuant to…
Why it matters: Results will show how well ALTO-300 works for major depressive disorder. This will affect future development.
Supportive ifTopline data from the ALTO-300 Phase 2b trial shows big improvement in depressive symptoms.
Worry ifThe main data shows no big change in depressive symptoms.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if cash burn and losses are improving or worsening.
Worry ifReported net losses for Q2 are worse than -$27.1 million.
Less concerning ifNet losses for Q2 are better than -$27.1 million.
Why it matters: Cutting operating losses is important for stability. It shows the company can control costs.
Supportive ifOperating losses reported less than -$27.1M in Q2 earnings.
Worry ifOperating losses were worse than -$27.1M. This shows declining financial health.
Why it matters: Updates will show how well ALTO-101 works for cognitive impairment. Good results could lead to more development.
Watch forALTO-101 shows big improvement in EEG markers related to cognition in the Phase 2 trial.
Also watch forALTO-101 shows no big improvement in EEG markers related to cognition in the Phase 2 trial.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$178 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $754 loss on $10,000 · 7.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,420 loss on $10,000 · 34.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Topline data will show how well ALTO-207 works for treatment-resistant depression. This data is important for future trials and possible approval.
Supportive ifTopline data from the ALTO-207 Phase 2b trial shows big improvement in depression symptoms.
Worry ifThe main data shows no big change in depression symptoms.
Why it matters: This data will show if ALTO-207 can help treat depression like before.
Supportive ifTopline results show better MADRS scores than the placebo group.
Worry ifTopline results do not show better MADRS scores than the placebo group.
Why it matters: Keeping cash balance is important for running the business until 2029.
Worry ifManagement says cash balance will stay above $10 million by Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifCash balance reported below $10 million by Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Cash updates will show if the financing supports operations as planned through 2029.
Watch forCash balance is over $264 million after the July financing.
Also watch forCash balance is below $240 million, which may mean funding problems.
Why it matters: Updates on cash balance will indicate if the company can sustain operations through 2029. A drop below $244 million could raise concerns.
Worry ifCash balance reported above $244 million as of June 30, 2026.
Less concerning ifCash balance reported below $244 million as of June 30, 2026.
Why it matters: Getting more financing is key for operations. It shows management can support growth.
Supportive ifA new private placement or financing round was announced.
Worry ifNo news on more financing or delays in getting funds.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if cash burn and losses are improving or worsening.
Watch forReported Q2 earnings show a reduction in cash burn to less than -$25 million.
Also watch forReported Q2 earnings show cash burn worsening beyond -$27 million.
Why it matters: Updates on cash balance will indicate if Alto can sustain operations through 2029-2030. This affects their ability to fund trials.
Supportive ifCash balance is over $338 million. This confirms funding for operations until 2030.
Worry ifCash balance is below $300 million. This raises worries about funding for ongoing trials.
Why it matters: Getting funding is key for keeping operations running and helping growth.
Supportive ifNews about a successful private funding deal or financing round.
Worry ifNo financing secured and cash burn continues to rise.
Why it matters: A stronger board can improve strategy and boost investor trust.
Supportive ifNew board members or advisors with experience are announced.
Worry ifNo new board members or bad news about the board.
Why it matters: Updates on cash position will show if Alto can keep running and fund trials until 2029-2030.
Watch forThe cash position is over $338 million. This shows money for operations.
Also watch forThe cash position is below $300 million. This raises worries about funding.
Why it matters: Starting these trials is important for ALTO-207's chance at approval. It shows progress in clinical development.
Supportive ifALTO-207 Phase 3 trials begin as planned in early 2027.
Worry ifPhase 3 trials are delayed beyond early 2027.