APi Group (APG)
NYSEIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-04
$40.33-8.40%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · APG
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 2.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 10.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 8.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 12 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
APG — earnings in line
Dated 2026-07-30
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On July 30, 2026, APi Group Corporation (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fiscal quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1. The information furnished under this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished and shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or incorporat…
Why it matters: The latest signal fell sharply after earnings, even as APi raised its outlook. A rebound would ease this mixed reading; another drop would deepen it.
Watch forThe company momentum score rises above its prior 45.1 reading in a later update.
Also watch forThe company momentum score falls below 6.8 in a later update.
Why it matters: APi raised both full-year ranges after strong Q3 growth. Results inside or above them would back its growth story.
Supportive ifFull-year 2026 revenue is at least $9.20 billion and adjusted EBITDA is at least $1.235 billion.
Worry ifFull-year revenue is less than $9.20 billion, or adjusted EBITDA is less than $1.235 billion.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$107 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $293 loss on $10,000 · 2.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,559 loss on $10,000 · 25.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.