APi Group (APG)
NYSEIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$40.04+0.02%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · APG
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -13.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 10.9% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 23.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 32 industry peers
APG — earnings in line
Dated 2026-07-30
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On July 30, 2026, APi Group Corporation (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fiscal quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1. The information furnished under this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished and shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or incorporat…
Why it matters: Successful integration of WTech is key to achieving growth in Safety Services. It can impact future revenue.
Supportive ifManagement reports that WTech is integrated well and helps revenue.
Worry ifManagement says there are problems or delays with WTech integration.
Why it matters: Updates on revenue guidance will show how the Onyx-Fire deal affects growth.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 revenue guidance is now above $2,150 million. This shows Onyx-Fire's impact.
Worry ifQ2 2026 revenue guidance is below $2,150 million. This shows weaker performance.
Why it matters: Finishing this will improve the balance sheet and help future growth plans.
Supportive ifThe $500 million notes offering is fully subscribed and done.
Worry ifThe notes offering does not complete or is much undersubscribed.
Why it matters: The company raised its EBITDA guidance to $1,165 million to $1,225 million. This shows strong performance.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA for the year exceeds $1,225 million.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA for the year falls below $1,165 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$133 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $282 loss on $10,000 · 2.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,217 loss on $10,000 · 22.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: This range shows strong performance. It supports APi's growth story.
Supportive ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA reported within the range of $325 to $335 million.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA is less than $325 million.
Why it matters: A drop below 10% would signal potential weakness in the company's growth strategy.
Worry ifOrganic revenue growth reported below 10% for Q3.
Less concerning ifOrganic revenue growth is over 10%. This shows strong performance.
Why it matters: Meeting this revenue target shows continued growth momentum. It confirms strong demand in APi's segments.
Supportive ifQ3 net revenues reported within the range of $2,375 to $2,425 million.
Worry ifQ3 net revenues fall below $2,375 million.
Why it matters: A margin above 13.8% shows good cost control and revenue growth. It shows strong performance.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA margin was above 13.8% for Q3 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin was below 13.8% for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Onyx-Fire is expected to add $190 million in revenue. Successful integration will show if APi can grow its market share in Canada.
Supportive ifManagement says Onyx-Fire added more than $190 million to revenue in its first year.
Worry ifManagement says Onyx-Fire added less than $150 million to revenue in the first year.
Why it matters: The company closed a $500 million senior notes offering. This could affect its capital structure and growth plans.
Watch forThe financing can help grow operational capacity. It can also lead to new acquisitions.
Also watch forThe financing can lead to higher debt costs or limits on operations.
Why it matters: The WTech acquisition is expected to add $175 million in revenue. Guidance changes will show how well the integration is going.
Supportive ifManagement raises 2026 revenue guidance to more than $8.86 billion.
Worry ifManagement expects 2026 revenue to be less than $8.66 billion.
Why it matters: Updates on the buyback program will show how APi manages capital. It also shows how they return value to shareholders.
Supportive ifAPi finished buying back at least $100 million in shares.
Worry ifThere are no updates or delays in the buyback program.
Why it matters: New acquisitions can help growth. They can also make the Safety Services segment better.
Supportive ifThey will announce new acquisitions that add a lot to revenue.
Worry ifNo new acquisitions have been announced. This suggests a slowdown in growth.
Why it matters: Successful integration will show the value of recent acquisitions and help growth.
Supportive ifManagement says WTech and Onyx-Fire did well in the last 6 months.
Worry ifManagement says WTech and Onyx-Fire have problems or did not perform well.
Why it matters: Updates on the buyback show management's trust in the company's value.
Watch forManagement shares news on the share buyback program.
Also watch forNo updates or delays in the share buyback program execution.
Why it matters: A successful Onyx-Fire integration would help APi's Safety Services. It shows their M&A plan works.
Supportive ifManagement says Onyx-Fire is now part of APi.
Worry ifThere are problems or delays with the Onyx-Fire acquisition.