Apellis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (APLS)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$41.030.00%
Close 2026-05-14 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · APLS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
A comparable price-assumption read is not available for this company.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Worth watching into the next print: this name operates in a high-miss-rate industry and its industry peers have been missing lately. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 66 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
APLS — legal / regulatory event — Notice of Delisting or Failure to Satisfy a Continued Listing Rule or Standar…
Dated 2026-05-14
Notice of Delisting or Failure to Satisfy a Continued Listing Rule or Standard; Transfer of Listing. On May 13, 2026, the Company (i) notified The Nasdaq Stock Market (“Nasdaq”) of the anticipated consummation of the Merger and (ii) requested that Nasdaq (x) suspend trading of the Shares, effective at 8:00 p.m., Eastern Time, on May 13, 2026, and, following the Effective Time, (y) file with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) a Form 25, Notification of Removal from Listing…
Why it matters: The merger closed, but former holders can still receive up to $4 per share if set milestones are met. A Biogen update can show whether any payment is due.
Watch forBiogen reports that a merger CVR milestone was met and names the payment amount, up to $4 per share in total.
Also watch forBiogen reports that a CVR milestone was missed, or its deadline passed before the milestone was met.
Why it matters: Q2 results will show how the merger affects revenue and other financial metrics.
Watch forQ2 revenue shows significant growth compared to Q1 2026.
Also watch forQ2 revenue declines or shows minimal growth compared to Q1 2026.
Why it matters: This date will decide how many convertible notes are bought back. This affects liquidity.
Watch forA large number of notes are bought back, showing strong holder interest.
Also watch forFew notes are bought back, with many still outstanding.
Why it matters: The acquisition will change Apellis' structure and strategy. This affects future growth.
Supportive ifAn official announcement confirms the acquisition is done. Trading will start again.
Worry ifThere are more delays or problems with the acquisition process.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$98 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $422 loss on $10,000 · 4.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,353 loss on $10,000 · 43.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Updates on the buyback program show how management is using capital. It shows confidence.
Supportive ifThere is an announcement about starting or expanding the share buyback program.
Worry ifNo updates or a cancellation of the buyback program.
Why it matters: The tender offer affects share value and investor sentiment. Clarity on acceptance rates is crucial.
Watch forAnnouncement of a high acceptance rate of shares in the tender offer.
Also watch forLow acceptance rates show weak support from shareholders.
Why it matters: How stockholders respond to the tender offer shows their confidence in the merger.
Watch forA large number of stockholders accept the tender offer. This shows strong support.
Also watch forA low acceptance rate of the tender offer shows stockholder doubt.
Why it matters: A successful buyback can raise share value. It also shows management's trust in the company.
Supportive ifThe company says it has finished a big part of the buyback program.
Worry ifThe company delays or cancels the buyback program.
Why it matters: Changes in leadership can affect company plans and actions. It shows if the new team is stable.
Worry ifNo resignations or changes in leaders show that things are stable.
Less concerning ifMore leaders leaving or problems in leadership after the merger.
Why it matters: Apellis shares were set to leave Nasdaq after the merger. A final filing can confirm the end of its public reporting.
Watch forAn SEC Form 15 filing confirms that Apellis ended its reporting duties.
Also watch forA company or SEC filing says Form 15 was not filed or that reporting duties remain active.
Why it matters: Changes in leaders can change company plans and results. Watching this can show future paths.
Watch forNew leaders are chosen that match the goals of the merged company.
Also watch forMore leaders leaving or problems in leadership can hurt operations.
Why it matters: The acquisition may change how Apellis operates. Investors will watch for its impact on finances.
Supportive ifFinancials show a big rise in revenue or net income after the acquisition.
Worry ifFinancials stay the same or drop, showing no good effect from the acquisition.
Why it matters: The buyback can raise share value. It shows management's confidence and spending priorities.
Supportive ifThe buyback program is causing a clear rise in share price or investor interest.
Worry ifThe buyback fails to support share price or is met with negative investor sentiment.
Why it matters: If the tender offer works, it will change shareholder value and company plans.
Watch forMost shareholders accept the tender offer, which leads to the merger.
Also watch forLow acceptance of the tender offer shows that shareholders are not on board.
Why it matters: A buyback was listed as a company priority, but the deal closed and Apellis became a Biogen unit. A clear update would show whether that plan remains active.
Watch forBiogen reports it bought back shares tied to Apellis or its former shareholders.
Also watch forBiogen states that no Apellis share buyback will take place, or reports no repurchase by its next public update.
Why it matters: Completing the acquisition will impact Apellis' future work and money situation. This is an important step for the company.
Supportive ifThe acquisition is complete. All regulatory approvals are in place by the end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifThe acquisition has delays or regulatory issues. This pushes the completion past Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A successful buyback shows management's confidence in the company's value. It can help the share price.
Supportive ifManagement announces a big buyback of shares. This shows strong financial health.
Worry ifManagement cancels or delays the buyback program. This suggests there are financial concerns.
Why it matters: Revenue growth shows how well the company is doing financially.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth exceeds 20% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth is below 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Completing the acquisition will change how Apellis works and its finances. It is very important.
Supportive ifAn official announcement shows the merger with Biogen is done.
Worry ifThere are delays or problems in the merger process.
Why it matters: Updates on CVR payments show how well the merger is doing with its goals.
Supportive ifManagement says that CVR milestones have been met.
Worry ifManagement states that CVR milestones are not met or delayed.
Why it matters: A successful buyback can raise earnings per share. It shows management believes in the company.
Supportive ifManagement says there is a big drop in outstanding shares because of the buyback.
Worry ifThe buyback program fails to reduce share count significantly or is halted.
Why it matters: Good financial results can increase investor trust and help stock price.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 revenue was over $300 million, showing continued growth.
Worry ifQ2 2026 revenue was below $250 million, showing a slowdown.