Apogee Enterprises, Inc. (APOG)
NASDAQIndustrialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$39.97+4.66%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · APOG
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -19.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 5.8% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 25.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 27 industry peers
APOG — credit agreement
Dated 2026-09-03
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement Share Purchase Agreement On September 2, 2026, Apogee Enterprises, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into a Share Purchase Agreement (the “Purchase Agreement”) with the sellers party thereto (collectively, the “Sellers”), pursuant to which the Company, through a newly formed, wholly owned subsidiary, agreed to acquire 100% of the issued and outstanding equity interests of SIA “Alzette”, a Latvian limited liability company (“Alzette”) (the “Transaction”).…
Why it matters: Better margins show good cost control and pricing. This is important for making money.
Supportive ifOperating margin is over 6% in Q2 results.
Worry ifOperating margin falls below 5% in Q2 results.
Why it matters: This shows strong performance. It also backs up what management expects.
Supportive ifQ2 adjusted diluted EPS reported at or above $0.57.
Worry ifQ2 adjusted diluted EPS is below $0.57.
Why it matters: Integrating Kalwall is important for Apogee's growth. It can help their Architectural Glass segment.
Supportive ifManagement says the planning for integration is going well. They see benefits in operations.
Worry ifIf there are integration problems, it may cause delays or missed benefits.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow supports capital allocation and growth plans. Weak cash flow may raise concerns.
Watch forOperating cash flow exceeds $10 million in Q2.
Also watch forOperating cash flow falls below $5 million in Q2.
Why it matters: This segment's performance is key for revenue growth and profit.
Watch forArchitectural Glass segment revenue goes up year over year.
Also watch forArchitectural Glass segment revenue goes down year over year.
Why it matters: Ongoing savings from this project will help margins. Not getting savings may hurt profits.
Supportive ifManagement says annual savings of at least $26 million from Project Fortify Phase 2.
Worry ifManagement says savings are less than $20 million from Project Fortify Phase 2.
Why it matters: Updates will show if cost management is working to improve profits.
Supportive ifManagement says gross margins improved. They also saved money with Project Fortify Phase 2.
Worry ifGross margins decline or no reported cost savings from Project Fortify Phase 2.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how sales and margins are doing after the acquisition.
Watch forQ2 earnings show net sales above $360 million and adjusted EPS above $0.60.
Also watch forQ2 earnings report shows net sales below $340 million and adjusted EPS below $0.50.
Why it matters: The acquisition is expected to add $85 million in revenue and improve margins. This will show if the strategy is effective.
Supportive ifQ2 results show revenue increase of at least $85 million attributed to Kalwall.
Worry ifQ2 results show no big revenue from the Kalwall acquisition.
Why it matters: More backlog shows strong demand ahead. This supports revenue growth.
Supportive ifSegment backlog grows beyond $734.5 million in the next quarter.
Worry ifSegment backlog declines or does not grow from $734.5 million.
Why it matters: Growth in this segment shows strong demand and good execution. This supports overall revenue growth.
Supportive ifNet sales in the Architectural Services segment grew by more than 8% year over year.
Worry ifNet sales in the Architectural Services segment fell or grew less than 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Management thinks the acquisition will improve margins. This would show good integration.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA margin is over 15% in Q2 results.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin stays below 15% in Q2 results.
Why it matters: Closing this deal will enhance Apogee's market position and add $30 million in revenue.
Supportive ifThe acquisition closes during fiscal 2027 Q3 as planned.
Worry ifThe acquisition fails to close or is delayed beyond the expected timeline.
Why it matters: Saving $4 million shows good teamwork and smooth operations.
Supportive ifManagement says they have saved at least $4 million each year.
Worry ifCost synergies fall short of $4 million or integration issues arise.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$118 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $382 loss on $10,000 · 3.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,913 loss on $10,000 · 29.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.