Apogee Enterprises, Inc. (APOG)
NASDAQIndustrialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$47.99+4.62%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · APOG
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -13.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 7.8% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 21.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 17 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
APOG — CEO transition
Dated 2026-11-02
CEO — Donald A. Nolan: The filing discloses a short-term contract extension for the CEO to bridge the gap until a successor is found, rather than an immediate departure or a routine appointment.
Why it matters: Apogee completed the Groglass deal in September. The deal plan calls for about $30 million in first-year sales and a 25% adjusted EBITDA margin.
Supportive ifApogee reports first-year Groglass sales of at least $30 million. Its adjusted EBITDA margin is near or above 25%.
Worry ifApogee reports first-year Groglass sales below $30 million. Or, its adjusted EBITDA margin is well below 25%.
Why it matters: Apogee raised its fiscal 2027 adjusted EPS range to $3.00–$3.40. Results below $3.00 would miss the new low end.
Worry ifFiscal 2027 adjusted diluted EPS is below $3.00. Or, management lowers the range below $3.00.
Less concerning ifFiscal 2027 adjusted diluted EPS is at least $3.00, with guidance still at $3.00–$3.40 or higher.
Why it matters: The deal plan names at least $4 million in yearly cost savings within three years. Reaching that mark would support the case for the acquisition.
Supportive ifApogee reports at least $4 million in yearly Groglass cost savings or operating gains within three years of the deal.
Worry ifApogee reports less than $4 million in yearly savings after three years, or states that the target will not be met.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$127 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $352 loss on $10,000 · 3.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,770 loss on $10,000 · 27.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.