AppFolio (APPF)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-05
$233.22-1.53%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · APPF
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 43.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 18.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 25.7 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 60 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
APPF — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-23
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On July 23, 2026 , AppFolio, Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release announcing its financial results for its second quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. The information contained in this Item 2.02, including the press release attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as ame…
Why it matters: Unit growth is a direct measure of customer adoption. A lower rate may point to weaker demand for the platform.
Worry ifA reported quarter shows units under management grew less than 8% from a year earlier.
Less concerning ifA reported quarter shows units under management grew 8% or more from a year earlier.
Why it matters: AppFolio grew revenue 19% in Q2 and Q3. A lower rate would add to signs that growth is easing.
Worry ifThe next reported quarter shows revenue growth below 19% year over year.
Less concerning ifThe next reported quarter shows revenue growth at or above 19% year over year.
Why it matters: This would beat the top of the latest revenue range and extend the 19% growth reported in Q3.
Supportive ifFY2026 revenue is reported above $1.127 billion.
Worry ifFY2026 revenue is reported below $1.122 billion, the bottom of the latest range.
Why it matters: Management named AI as a focus, but Q3 gave no measure of AI use or its results. A clear measure would show progress.
Supportive ifA company update gives a number for AI use and links it to customer results or lower costs.
Worry ifThe next results report still gives no AI use measure or AI-linked customer or cost result.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$206 on $10,000 · ±2.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $459 loss on $10,000 · 4.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,433 loss on $10,000 · 44.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.