AppFolio (APPF)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
$214.28-4.16%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · APPF
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 30.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 19.7% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 10.4 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 119 industry peers
APPF — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-23
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On July 23, 2026 , AppFolio, Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release announcing its financial results for its second quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. The information contained in this Item 2.02, including the press release attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as ame…
Why it matters: Over 20% revenue growth shows strong demand. It also shows good strategy execution.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth above 20% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth falls below 15% year over year.
Why it matters: A margin above 27% shows good cost control. It also shows efficient operations.
Supportive ifNon-GAAP operating margin is over 27% in Q2.
Worry ifNon-GAAP operating margin falls below 25% in Q2.
Why it matters: Growth in units shows strong customer acquisition. It also shows good market presence.
Supportive ifUnits under management grow more than 8% year over year in Q2.
Worry ifUnits under management grow less than 5% year over year in Q2.
Why it matters: Stalling or falling net income goes against management's goal to raise net income. It may show operational problems.
Worry ifNet income growth stalls or declines compared to the previous quarter.
Less concerning ifNet income keeps growing year-over-year.
Why it matters: Updates on AI could show how well AppFolio is enhancing its product offerings.
Watch forManagement will give a detailed update on AI use in Q3 earnings.
Also watch forNo big updates on AI use in Q3 earnings.
Why it matters: Revenue growth below 19% would signal a slowdown in the company's momentum. This could impact investor confidence.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth was below 19% compared to last year.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue growth remains at or above 19% year-over-year.
Why it matters: Net income growth below 10% may show problems keeping profits. This could affect investors.
Worry ifNet income growth reported below 10% year-over-year in Q3.
Less concerning ifNet income growth remains at or above 10% year-over-year in Q3.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$215 on $10,000 · ±2.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $459 loss on $10,000 · 4.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,996 loss on $10,000 · 50.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.