APTEVO THERAPEUTICS INC (APVO)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$1.74+1.75%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · APVO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -81.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 79.1% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 160.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate) and has erratic recent earnings surprises. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 398 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
APVO — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-14
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 14, 2026, Aptevo Therapeutics Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the period ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference. The information in this report, including the exhibit hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise…
Why it matters: This partnership could help Aptevo develop products and make more money.
Supportive ifA press release will share news about progress in the partnership.
Worry ifNo news or bad updates about the partnership after several months.
Why it matters: Finishing the RAINIER trial is important for mipletamig's future. It also affects Aptevo's growth plans.
Supportive ifCompletion of the RAINIER trial and announcement of results by year-end 2026.
Worry ifTrial completion is delayed or results are disappointing.
Why it matters: The CEO change might alter the company's path and affect investor trust.
Watch forThe new CEO shares a clear and positive plan in a public statement.
Also watch forThe new CEO fails to provide a clear strategy or vision, causing uncertainty.
Why it matters: How the company uses this money can affect growth and stability.
Watch forA report showing good use of money from the private placement for growth.
Also watch forReports of bad money use or poor allocation of the raised funds.
Why it matters: Earnings results will provide insight into financial health and progress on key projects.
Worry ifQ2 earnings report shows revenue growth or reduced losses compared to Q1.
Less concerning ifQ2 earnings report shows continued losses or revenue decline.
Why it matters: Starting studies for APVO451 could show progress in solid tumor treatments. It may help funding.
Supportive ifStudies for APVO451 will start in Q1 2027. This follows a $1.5 million grant.
Worry ifStudies for APVO451 are delayed. Funding may not be enough.
Why it matters: Completing this trial is key for moving mipletamig to Phase 2. Positive results could boost confidence in its potential for AML treatment.
Supportive ifThe Phase 1b dose testing for mipletamig will finish by year-end 2026.
Worry ifA delay in the Phase 1b trial or not meeting clinical goals.
Why it matters: How Aptevo uses the capital can impact its growth strategy and financial health. Positive use could signal better future prospects.
Watch forAnnouncement of projects or plans that the private placement will fund.
Also watch forNo clear plans or negative news regarding the use of funds from the private placement.
Why it matters: The success or failure of the private placement will affect capital and funding for projects.
Watch forThe company raises the needed money through the private placement.
Also watch forThe private placement lacks enough investment. This leads to funding problems.
Why it matters: Choosing a candidate for APVO451 shows progress in Aptevo's treatment plan. This may boost investor trust.
Supportive ifThe candidate for APVO451 will be announced by year-end 2026.
Worry ifNot choosing a candidate or delays in studies needed for IND.
Why it matters: A new CEO can change the company’s path and affect how investors feel.
Watch forA formal announcement of the new CEO with a clear vision for the company.
Also watch forNo news or more delays in the CEO change.
Why it matters: Completing the RAINIER trial is key for mipletamig's future in AML treatment. Positive results could boost its market potential.
Supportive ifThe RAINIER trial finished its dose tests. It shows clinical benefits over 87%.
Worry ifRAINIER trial fails to complete by year-end or shows clinical benefit rates below 80%.
Why it matters: Getting the Nectin-4 x PD-L1 patent could help Aptevo treat solid tumors.
Supportive ifThe patent for Nectin-4 x PD-L1 is granted. It supports many treatment options.
Worry ifThe patent application is turned down or delayed.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$245 on $10,000 · ±2.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $1,064 loss on $10,000 · 10.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $9,520 loss on $10,000 · 95.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.