Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Aquestive Therapeutics, Inc. (AQST)
NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-11-05
$3.66-3.68%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for AQST yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Resubmit Anaphylm NDA in Q3 2026 | The company plans to resubmit its Anaphylm drug application in Q3 2026. | Under Pressure | NDA resubmission delayed beyond Q3 2026 | FDA goal date March 2027 vs Q3 2026 target Nov 4 news confirms FDA goal date slipped to March 2027, delaying the Q3 2026 resubmission target. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “2© 2026 Aquestive Therapeutics, Inc. 3 Who we are A publicly traded biopharmaceutical company (NASDAQ: AQST) focused on advancing medicines to bring meaningful improvement to patients' lives through innovative science.” “6 Aquestive is the go-to formulation development and commercial manufacturing partner for oral thin film products worldwide 4 licensed commercial products 1-4 Validation from Diversified Pipeline Fuels Our Growth Plan 7 1.” Revenue was $7.557 million in 2026-Q3. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk, loss-making growth story, with much of the long-term case tied to Anaphylm and its potential launch. The thesis is currently intact, though the recent signal is mixed and management’s progress on key priorities is not fully established.
AQST is valued at a substantial premium to peers, with the valuation reflecting optionality, or value tied to possible future outcomes. The expectations gap is modest, and the evidence describes the expensive valuation as the main source of fragility, rather than a combination of expensive valuation, weak fundamentals, and turbulence.
Near term, revenue was lower in 2026-Q2 than in 2026-Q1, and the company remains loss-making; recent financial performance is assessed as neutral. The FDA accepted Anaphylm’s resubmission and set a March 16, 2027 review decision date, while launch preparation includes a planned field force of about 75 representatives. Risk is high, and the next earnings report warrants attention because AQST has missed across recent quarters.
The multi-year case hinges on Anaphylm’s regulatory review and whether launch preparation turns into execution. A guidance cut or weaker employment data would be unfavorable signals, while continued strong results and guidance from healthcare peers could support the sector backdrop. Progress on AQST-108 also matters, but further clinical milestones are not established in the supplied evidence.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, AQST’s thesis rests on regulatory and commercial execution, with a supportive sector backdrop offset by losses, high risk, and a premium valuation. The thesis remains intact, but the evidence is mixed and confidence is medium. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Manage EBITDA loss to $30-$35 million in 2026 | A primary condition in Aquestive Therapeutics, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is -35 to -30 USD millions loss. | Intact | EBITDA loss exceeds $35 million in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve $46-$50 million revenue in 2026 | A primary condition in Aquestive Therapeutics, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is 46-50 USD millions. | Intact | Revenue falls below $44 million in FY26 | Revenue: $7.557M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: 46-50 USD millions. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 3, 20267,557,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.38 → $-0.50 · observed estimates
$0.07B → $0.07B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.38 | $71,716,667 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.38 | $71,716,667 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.38 | $71,716,667 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.38 | $71,716,667 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.45 | $71,916,570 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.45 | $71,916,570 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.45 | $71,916,570 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.45 | $71,916,570 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.45 | $71,916,570 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.45 | $71,916,570 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.45 | $71,916,570 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.45 | $71,916,570 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.45 | $71,916,570 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.45 | $71,916,570 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.38 | $71,716,667 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.45 | $71,916,570 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.45 | $71,916,570 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.45 | $71,916,570 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-08-11 | $-0.45 | $71,916,570 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.45 | $71,916,570 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.45 | $71,916,570 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.38 | $71,716,667 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.38 | $71,716,667 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.38 | $71,716,667 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.38 | $71,716,667 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.38 | $71,716,667 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.38 | $71,716,667 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.38 | $71,716,667 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.51 | $68,057,750 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.51 | $68,057,750 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.51 | $68,057,750 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.51 | $68,057,750 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.50 | $67,768,889 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.50 | $67,768,889 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.50 | $67,768,889 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.50 | $67,768,889 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.50 | $67,768,889 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.50 | $67,768,889 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.50 | $67,768,889 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.50 | $67,768,889 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.50 | $67,768,889 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.50 | $67,768,889 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.50 | $67,768,889 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.50 | $67,768,889 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.50 | $67,768,889 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.50 | $67,768,889 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.50 | $67,768,889 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.50 | $67,768,889 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.50 | $67,768,889 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.50 | $67,768,889 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.50 | $67,768,889 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.50 | $67,768,889 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.50 | $67,768,889 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.50 | $67,768,889 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.50 | $67,768,889 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.50 | $67,768,889 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.50 | $67,768,889 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.50 | $67,768,889 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.50 | $67,768,889 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.50 | $67,768,889 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.50 | $67,768,889 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.50 | $67,768,889 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.50 | $67,768,889 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.50 | $67,768,889 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.50 | $67,768,889 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.50 | $67,768,889 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.50 | $67,768,889 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.50 | $67,768,889 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.50 | $67,768,889 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.50 | $67,768,889 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.50 | $67,768,889 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.50 | $67,768,889 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.50 | $67,768,889 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.50 | $67,768,889 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.50 | $67,768,889 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.50 | $67,768,889 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.50 | $67,768,889 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.50 | $67,768,889 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.50 | $67,768,889 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.50 | $67,768,889 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.50 | $67,768,889 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.50 | $67,768,889 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.50 | $67,768,889 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.50 | $67,768,889 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.50 | $67,768,889 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.50 | $67,768,889 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.50 | $67,762,444 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.50 | $67,762,444 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.50 | $67,762,444 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.50 | $66,593,333 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.50 | $66,593,333 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.50 | $66,593,333 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.50 | $66,593,333 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.50 | $66,593,333 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.50 | $66,593,333 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.50 | $66,593,333 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.50 | $66,593,333 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.50 | $66,593,333 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.50 | $66,593,333 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.50 | $66,593,333 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.50 | $66,593,333 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.50 | $66,593,333 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.50 | $66,593,333 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.50 | $66,593,333 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-11-05 | $-0.50 | $66,593,333 | 4 / 7 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 0 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.