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AR
Antero ResourcesNYSEEnergyOil & Gas E&pSnapshot 2026-06-12
Intact
$34.83+1.78%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, but the sector backdrop is a headwind. Earnings quality is neutral, and risk is moderate. Peer multiples imply a price about 20% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. If sector bellwethers like COP, EOG, and OXY keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Energy sector momentum should keep lifting AR and other Energy names. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Energy
- Industry
- Oil & Gas E&p
- Market cap
- $10.74B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 2013-06-13
- Next earnings
- —
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $34.83. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfull
$28.93consensus
Range $26.20 – $34.16
vs price: +20% above
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$124.91consensus
Range $52.61 – $136.98
vs price: -72% below
Method agreement — · 5 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Durable premiumlow confidence
At $35 the market pays 17× p/e — above the 13× p/e peer median but in line with its own 14× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $29 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts: $38–$57. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
16.7x
peer 12.6x · own history 13.8x
Premium
1.3x peer
1.2x its own history
Growth the price needs
20%
our forecast 4%
Our fair value
$28.93
range $26.20 – $33.49
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is below the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fullfair12-month view
What's priced inStretched
The market is pricing in roughly 20% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about 4%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Energy names rated strong grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=979).
99th pctl · Energy
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 2.03x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Energy names rated neutral grew net income 33% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=789).
54th pctl · Energy
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Management & capital allocation
Not enough signal yet.
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
BullishEPS revised +3.3% / 30d, n=15for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.89 → $0.92 (+3.3% / 30d). 8 raised, 6 cut, 15 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 65% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 50.8% above current price.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: energy is in mature, with may be transitioning (~0.8 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$155.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$424.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,177.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 14d
Watch for changes in sector revenue growth
Why it matters: If energy sector revenue grows again, it may help Antero. This could mean a recovery.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Three-year revenue growth in the energy sector rises above 8%.
Disproves:Three-year revenue growth in the energy sector falls below 5%.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for AR yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for changes in oil prices following CPI and PPI reports
- Watch for energy revenue growth to pick up above 8% YoY
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like COP, EOG, and OXY keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Energy sector momentum should keep lifting AR and other Energy names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If inflation reaccelerates, say headline CPI back above 3.5% (currently 2.8%), that would benefit AR and other Energy names (the sector typically holds up well in inflationary environments).
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for AR and other Energy names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
Downside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like COP, EOG, and OXY start missing or guiding lower, the Energy tailwind helping AR and other Energy names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits AR and other Energy names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-291mo agoItem 2.02
of Form 8-K and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to liabilities of that section, and is not incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act unless specifically identified therein as being incorporated therein by reference.
Earnings preannouncement—
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-1.9 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.