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ARCB
ArcBest Corp.NASDAQIndustrialsTruckingSnapshot 2026-06-12
Watch· this month
$173.04+0.21%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality is robust, cash backs up profits. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent changes. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 56% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified. This is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Trucking
- Market cap
- $3.84B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 1994-03-11
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-29
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $173.04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$114.48consensus
Range $59.98 – $230.97
vs price: +51% above
Method agreement — · 6 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$287.17consensus
Range $186.41 – $387.93
vs price: -40% below
Method agreement — · 2 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Re-ratinglow confidence
At $173 ARCB trades at 68× p/e — 2.9× the 23× p/e peer median, and above its own 16× history. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $109 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts: $116–$150. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
68.1x
peer 23.5x · own history 16.4x
Premium
2.9x peer
4.2x its own history
Growth the price needs
59%
our forecast -4%
Our fair value
$108.75
range $59.98 – $220.64
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is below the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensiveexpensive — growth-justified12-month view
What's priced inUnjustified
The market is pricing in roughly 59% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about -4%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
32nd pctl · Industrials
Earnings quality
robustOver the trailing year it converted 4.66x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated robust grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
91st pctl · Industrials
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
Management & capital allocation
volatileEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
BullishEPS revised +19.3% / 30d, n=12for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $1.64 → $1.96 (+19.3% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 12 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 4 maintained. 50% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 2.7% above current price.
Material events
0 positive, 2 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Transition story with positive analyst positioning (often a turnaround setup).
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklyManagement scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- weak
- Margin discipline
- weak
- Balance sheet
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- strong
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$190.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$455.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,060.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 14d
Watch for Q2 2026 revenue growth trends
Why it matters: Revenue growth is crucial for long-term success. It indicates demand for ArcBest's services.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Q2 2026 revenue growth exceeds 5% compared to Q2 2025.
Disproves:Q2 2026 revenue growth falls below 0% compared to Q2 2025.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ARCB yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth speeding up in Industrials.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like ODFL, XPO, and KNX keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Industrials sector momentum should keep lifting ARCB and other Industrials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If ARCB raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-06-04), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If ARCB cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-06-04), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like ODFL, XPO, and KNX start missing or guiding lower, the Industrials tailwind helping ARCB and other Industrials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits ARCB and other Industrials names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-049d agoItem 7.01
REGULATION FD DISCLOSURE ArcBest ® (Nasdaq: ARCB) is providing an update on the most recent information related to its second quarter 2026 financial results and business trends. Summary Operating and Financial Impacts ● Statistics for May 2026 are preliminary but are not expected to differ materially from actual results. ● There were 21.5 workdays in April 2026, and there were 21.5 workdays in April 2025. ● There were 20.0 workdays in May 2026 and 21.0 workdays in May 2025. ● The second qua…
Legal / regulatorynegative
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+0.9 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.