Arena Group Holdings, Inc. (The) (AREN)
AMEXCommunication ServicesSoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$1.03+1.98%
Close 2026-09-11 · 1-day change
AMEXCommunication ServicesSoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AREN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -76.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -9.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 67.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate) and has erratic recent earnings surprises. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 36 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
AREN — credit agreement
Dated 2026-08-13
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On August 7, 2026, The Arena Group Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into a Loan Agreement (the “Loan Agreement”) with Renew Group Private Limited (“Renew”). The Loan Agreement, which matures on August 6, 2029, provides for a term loan of $97,691,000. The proceeds of the loan were used to refinance the Company’s existing term loan obligations with Renew and for other general corporate purposes. The loan bears interest at 10.00% per annum, and i…
Why it matters: Q2 revenue fell from $45.0 million a year earlier. A rebound would show that the business is gaining ground after the change.
Supportive ifQ3 2026 revenue is above $22.2 million, the Q2 2026 level.
Worry ifQ3 2026 revenue is $22.2 million or lower.
Why it matters: Adjusted EBITDA fell from $18.6 million a year earlier to $4.4 million. A rise would show better results during the shift to AI and new services.
Supportive ifQ3 2026 Adjusted EBITDA is above $4.4 million, the Q2 2026 result.
Worry ifQ3 2026 Adjusted EBITDA is $4.4 million or lower.
Why it matters: The new loan moves the due date out three years, but carries a 10% yearly rate. Loan costs and timely payments matter for a company with $97.6 million in term debt.
Worry ifA company filing reports missed loan payments, a covenant breach, or added fees tied to the Renew loan.
Less concerning ifThe company reports loan payments made on time, no covenant breach, and no added loan fees.
Why it matters: The sector data shows recent weakness and says revenue growth below its usual level is a warning sign. A further drop could add pressure to Arena's revenue recovery.
Worry ifThe sector data reports revenue growth below its median.
Less concerning ifThe sector data reports revenue growth at or above its median.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$459 on $10,000 · ±4.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $1,111 loss on $10,000 · 11.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $8,596 loss on $10,000 · 86.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The company reported positive operating cash flow in Q1 and Q2. More positive quarters would support its plan to fund the business with cash from operations.
Supportive ifThe next quarter reported shows positive cash flow from operations.
Worry ifThe next quarter reported shows cash flow from operations at zero or less.