Arhaus, Inc. (ARHS)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
$8.73+3.93%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ARHS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 25.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 7.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 17.6 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 44 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ARHS — officer change
Dated 2026-07-16
Chief Marketing and eCommerce Officer — Jen Porter: The separation of the Marketing and eCommerce functions led to Jen Porter's departure from the Company.
Why it matters: Consumer spending impacts Arhaus's sales. Positive trends can support revenue growth.
Watch forJuly retail sales report shows growth above 0.5% month over month.
Also watch forJuly retail sales report shows a decline or flat growth.
Why it matters: Better Adjusted EBITDA means the company is managing costs well. This helps with making more money long-term.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA goes up by at least 5% from Q1.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA goes down or stays the same from Q1.
Why it matters: Missing growth goals may show bigger problems in the business.
Worry ifQ2 net revenue growth prints below 3.7%.
Less concerning ifQ2 net revenue growth meets or exceeds 3.7%.
Why it matters: Updates on tariff refunds can affect profits and cash flow. This may change growth plans.
Watch forMore tariff refunds may come after the $37.8 million already reported.
Also watch forNo new updates or delays in processing tariff refunds.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$231 on $10,000 · ±2.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $510 loss on $10,000 · 5.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,918 loss on $10,000 · 49.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: New Showroom openings are key to expanding market presence and driving sales growth.
Supportive ifCompletion of at least 4 new Showroom openings by year-end.
Worry ifFewer than 4 new Showroom openings completed by year-end.
Why it matters: Effective capital management is crucial for growth. It shows how well the company is investing for the future.
Watch forCapital spending is below $10M for Q2.
Also watch forCapital spending is over $15M for Q2.
Why it matters: A drop in Adjusted EBITDA shows trouble with costs and running the business.
Worry ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA was less than $26 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA was more than $34 million.
Why it matters: Good capital management helps the company grow. Spending too much can hurt future investments.
Worry ifCapital spending for Q2 is within the planned budget.
Less concerning ifCapital spending for Q2 is much higher than the planned budget.
Why it matters: More spending may mean big growth plans or money issues.
Watch forCompany spending goes over $90 million for 2026.
Also watch forSpending stays under $70 million.
Why it matters: Stabilizing or declining revenue will show if the growth trajectory is at risk. Management aims for $1.43B to $1.47B in full-year revenue.
Worry ifQ2 revenue was over $350M. This shows stabilization.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue falls below $340M, indicating further decline.
Why it matters: New showroom openings are key for growth and market presence, impacting future sales.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of 4 to 6 new showroom openings in Q3.
Worry ifNo new showroom openings announced in Q3.
Why it matters: A continued decline in Comparable Written Sales signals ongoing demand weakness. This could impact future revenue growth.
Worry ifComparable Written Sales decline worse than -5% year over year in Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifComparable Written Sales stabilize or grow year over year in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Effective capital management is crucial for growth. Guidance shows a focus on spending between $70M and $90M.
Watch forManagement says spending is within the expected range.
Also watch forManagement says spending is far outside the $70M to $90M range.