Arhaus, Inc. (ARHS)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-05
$12.94-1.60%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ARHS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 55.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 7.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 48.1 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 14 industry peers
ARHS — earnings miss
Dated 2026-11-05
and Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99.2 of this Current Report on Form 8-K shall not be deemed to be “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section. The information in this Current Report shall not be incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, whether made before or after the date of this Current Report, regardless…
Why it matters: Arhaus ties its growth plan to new stores and showroom work. Finishing the planned projects would show it is carrying out that plan.
Supportive ifThe company reports 10 to 14 showroom projects for 2026, with 4 to 6 new openings.
Worry ifThe company reports fewer than 10 showroom projects or fewer than 4 new openings for 2026.
Why it matters: Q2 adjusted EBITDA included $23.8 million from tariff refunds. Q3 results can show how the business earns money without that boost.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA is below $26 million, the low end of guidance. Or it falls year over year after tariff refund gains are excluded.
Less concerning ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA reaches at least $26 million. The release also shows results do not rely on a new tariff refund gain.
Why it matters: Arhaus sees Q3 delivered sales ranging from -1% to 5%. Growth above zero would beat the low end of that range.
Supportive ifQ3 comparable delivered sales grow year over year by more than 0%.
Worry ifQ3 comparable delivered sales fall from last year and miss the 0% low end of full-year guidance.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$199 on $10,000 · ±2.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $545 loss on $10,000 · 5.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,918 loss on $10,000 · 49.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.