Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (ARI)
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-09-04
$6.880.00%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ARI
Next print, the company's guidance track record, and the earnings events we've seen in the last few years.
Likelihood the company beats analyst consensus on its next print. Read from its own beat history plus how sector peers have been reporting. Not a price-direction call: a serial beater often has the beat already priced in.
Prints it beat consensus, recent quarters.
Indicative, not a guarantee. Base rate ~71%.
Industry peers that beat since this name last reported.
Management's most recent EPS guidance action.
expected = 0.35*own_median(7.5) + peer(0.2*-1.4) + term(0.0) → 2.35% (capped ±15.0)
Calibrated likelihood the company misses analyst consensus on its next print, read from its own miss history plus its industry base rate. A fundamental tilt, not a price call — and a quiet watch-flag, not an alarm.
Worth watching into the next print: this name operates in a high-miss-rate industry and its industry peers have been missing lately. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Calibrated. Base rate ~24%.
Consecutive quarters it missed, most recent run.
How often this industry misses, baseline.
Industry peers that missed in the recent window.
in 52 days
Average absolute move on past earnings days.
Annualized: recent baseline volatility.
Of the last 2 guided quarters.
Actual vs. guided EPS, signed.
Excess return vs. sector ETF, day after print.
Provisional scorecard: fewer than 4 guided quarters in the corpus.
Earnings prints and pre-announcements detected in the SEC filing stream.
of this Current Report, including Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section. The information in this Current Report shall not be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document pursuant to the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, unless it is specifically incorporated by reference therein.
Quarterly EPS and revenue actuals vs. consensus across the last eight quarters (including beat/miss size and the forward consensus heading into the next print) are on the way.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
of this Current Report, including Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section. The information in this Current Report shall not be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document pursuant to the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, unless it is specifically incorporated by reference therein.
of this Current Report, including Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section. The information in this Current Report shall not be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document pursuant to the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, unless it is specifically incorporated by reference therein.
of this Current Report, including Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section. The information in this Current Report shall not be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document pursuant to the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, unless it is specifically incorporated by reference therein.
of this Current Report, including Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section. The information in this Current Report shall not be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document pursuant to the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, unless it is specifically incorporated by reference therein.
of this Current Report, including Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section. The information in this Current Report shall not be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document pursuant to the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, unless it is specifically incorporated by reference therein.
of this Current Report, including Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section. The information in this Current Report shall not be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document pursuant to the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, unless it is specifically incorporated by reference therein.
of this Current Report, including Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section. The information in this Current Report shall not be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document pursuant to the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, unless it is specifically incorporated by reference therein.
of this Current Report, including Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section. The information in this Current Report shall not be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document pursuant to the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, unless it is specifically incorporated by reference therein.
of this Current Report, including Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section. The information in this Current Report shall not be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document pursuant to the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, unless it is specifically incorporated by reference therein.