Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (ARI)
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-11-04
$2.41-3.98%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ARI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -69.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -46.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 22.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 20 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ARI — legal / regulatory event — Notice of Delisting or Failure to Satisfy a Continued Listing Rule or Standar…
Dated 2026-10-16
Notice of Delisting or Failure to Satisfy a Continued Listing Rule or Standard, Transfer of Listing. On October 16, 2026, Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing that it intends to file a Form 25, or Notification of Removal from Listing, with the Securities and Exchange Commission and the New York Stock Exchange (“NYSE”) relating to the delisting of shares of its common stock on or about October 27, 2026. The Company also expects that the…
Why it matters: ARI said it aims to return capital in an orderly way. The size and timing of cash payments show how that plan is progressing.
Watch forARI announces a cash payment from asset sale proceeds. It states the amount and payment date.
Also watch forARI reports no planned cash payment, or delays a stated payment date without giving a new date.
Why it matters: ARI announced a plan to delist its shares. The filing and final trading date mark a key step in the wind-down.
Worry ifARI files Form 25 and its common stock is removed from NYSE trading around October 27, 2026.
Less concerning ifARI withdraws or delays the Form 25 filing, or the NYSE keeps the shares listed beyond the announced date.
Why it matters: ARI and its manager signed a termination agreement. Its terms can affect wind-down costs and the cash left to distribute.
Watch forARI's next filing confirms the manager contract ended on agreed terms. It reports no extra fees or costs beyond disclosed amounts.
Also watch forARI reports extra costs to end the contract, a changed end date, or a dispute over the agreement.
Why it matters: ARI recorded large realized losses tied to its loan sale. More losses or costs could reduce cash left for stockholders.
Worry ifARI reports more realized losses, debt pay-off losses, or wind-down costs in its next results.
Less concerning ifARI reports no more losses from completed sales or wind-down costs. It gives a clear cash balance for payments.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$86 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $181 loss on $10,000 · 1.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $7,941 loss on $10,000 · 79.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.