Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (ARI)
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-09-04
$6.880.00%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ARI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -16.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -41.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 25.4 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name operates in a high-miss-rate industry and its industry peers have been missing lately. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 33 industry peers
ARI — dividend update
Dated 2026-06-16
Other Events. On June 15, 2026, Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. (“ARI” or the “Company”) issued a press release announcing that the Board of Directors declared a dividend of $3.75 per share of common stock, which is payable on July 15, 2026 to common stockholders of record on June 30, 2026. The dividend payment will be predominately classified as return of capital. The Company also announced that following an extensive review of potential strategic alternatives for ARI, the Board…
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows financial stability and care for shareholders. A cut may hurt trust.
Worry ifThe company declares a dividend of $0.25 per share for the upcoming quarter.
Less concerning ifThe company cuts the dividend payment to below $0.25 per share.
Why it matters: Updates will show how fast the company is closing down and returning money to stockholders.
Watch forNews of finished asset sales or big steps in the liquidation process.
Also watch forNo updates or delays in the liquidation process.
Why it matters: This sale is key for the company's finances and its dissolution plan. It will give money for stockholder payouts.
Supportive ifThe company says it has sold assets to Athene.
Worry ifThe asset sale is delayed or does not happen. This affects the dissolution timeline.
Why it matters: PPI changes can signal inflation trends that affect real estate values and borrowing costs. This impacts ARI's financial performance.
Watch forPPI rises above 0.5% month over month. This shows inflation is increasing.
Also watch forPPI goes down or stays the same. This suggests stable or falling prices.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$87 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $194 loss on $10,000 · 1.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,207 loss on $10,000 · 42.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A new strategy will show how ARI plans to grow after the asset sale. Investors want to see a clear path forward.
Supportive ifLook for a press release about a new plan or investment focus by ARI.
Worry ifNo announcement of a new strategy by year-end. This may lead to talks of closing.
Why it matters: Paying back loans helps ARI's finances and lowers interest costs. It shows good money management.
Supportive ifA press release confirming the full repayment of outstanding term loans.
Worry ifNot paying back loans on time causes more financial stress.
Why it matters: Approval is needed for the company's liquidation and asset sale. This affects how fast stockholders get their money back.
Supportive ifStockholders approve the dissolution plan at the next meeting.
Worry ifStockholders do not agree with the dissolution plan. This slows down the liquidation process.
Why it matters: The dividend shows how well the company manages its money during dissolution. A big dividend means strong cash flow.
Supportive ifThe company declares a dividend equal to or greater than $3.75 per share.
Worry ifThe company cuts or stops the dividend below $3.75 per share.