Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (ARI)
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-11-04
$2.41-3.98%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.18 → 0.17 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ARI yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Debt reduction and asset acquisition completed | Apollo has recently completed acquisitions and repaid debt, improving its balance sheet. | Under Pressure | New debt issuance or asset sales that weaken balance sheet | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a special-situation investment, meaning its outcome depends heavily on a specific corporate event rather than steady business growth. The company is pursuing dissolution and liquidation, while the latest signal improved to mildly favorable; the thesis remains on watch.
ARI is described as cheap versus peers, but the valuation evidence also shows a 0.28 premium versus peers and a negative expectations gap. The overall priced-in tag is justified, with low flagged fragility, so the evidence does not point to a clearly strained market setup.
Near term, earnings may remain uneven: the company is loss-making, recent performance is neutral, and its completed Athene loan portfolio sale created reported losses. The sale and declared capital distributions show progress on stated priorities, but the liquidation plan and sharp difference between reported quarterly per-share distributions make any ongoing dividend commitment conditional. A delisting-rule notice adds near-term risk, while the latest earnings update improved the signal.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on execution of dissolution and liquidation and on how much capital is ultimately returned. Fed rate cuts could support rate-sensitive real estate names, while a guidance cut or weakness among sector peers could remove support. The evidence does not detail the delisting issue or the September agreement, so their implications remain unclear.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, ARI is a cheap-versus-peers but elevated-risk liquidation story, with progress on asset sales offset by losses and uncertainty around distributions and execution. The long-term thesis remains on watch. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance pays a high dividend yield near 10%. |
| Under Pressure |
| dividend cut or yield falls significantly below 8% |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
EPS at or above $0.16 next quarter | The company targets about $58.6 million revenue next quarter. | Broken | EPS falls below $0.16 next quarter | Diluted EPS: $0.11 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=0.16 USD_PER_SHARE. Same fiscal period as the stored target. Aug 10, 20260.11 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue at or above $58.63 million next quarter | The company targets about $58.6 million revenue next quarter. | Broken | revenue falls below $58 million next quarter | Revenue: $44.383M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=58.63 USD_MILLIONS. Same fiscal period as the stored target. Aug 10, 202644,383,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.76 → $0.17 · observed estimates
$0.09B → $0.12B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.76 | $86,600,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.76 | $86,600,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.76 | $86,600,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.76 | $86,600,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.76 | $86,600,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.76 | $86,600,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.76 | $86,600,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.76 | $86,600,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.56 | $115,822,853 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.76 | $86,600,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.76 | $86,600,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.76 | $86,600,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.76 | $86,600,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.76 | $86,600,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.56 | $115,822,853 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.76 | $86,600,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.76 | $86,600,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.76 | $86,600,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-11 | $0.76 | $86,600,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.34 | $0 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.34 | $0 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.56 | $115,822,853 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.56 | $115,822,853 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.56 | $115,822,853 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.56 | $115,822,853 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.56 | $115,822,853 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.56 | $115,822,853 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.56 | $115,822,853 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.56 | $115,822,853 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.56 | $115,822,853 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.56 | $115,822,853 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.56 | $115,822,853 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.56 | $115,822,853 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.56 | $115,822,853 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.56 | $115,822,853 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.56 | $115,822,853 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.56 | $115,822,853 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.56 | $115,822,853 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.56 | $115,822,853 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.56 | $115,822,853 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.56 | $115,822,853 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.56 | $115,822,853 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.56 | $115,822,853 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.56 | $115,822,853 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.56 | $115,822,853 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.56 | $115,822,853 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.56 | $115,822,853 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.56 | $115,822,853 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.56 | $115,822,853 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.56 | $115,822,853 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.56 | $115,822,853 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.56 | $115,822,853 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.56 | $115,822,853 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.56 | $115,822,853 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.56 | $115,822,853 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.56 | $115,822,853 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.56 | $115,822,853 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.56 | $115,822,853 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.56 | $115,822,853 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.56 | $115,822,853 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.56 | $115,822,853 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.56 | $115,822,853 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.56 | $115,822,853 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.76 | $115,822,853 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.76 | $115,822,853 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.76 | $115,822,853 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.76 | $115,822,853 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.76 | $115,822,853 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.76 | $115,822,853 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.76 | $115,822,853 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.76 | $115,822,853 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.18 | $115,822,853 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.18 | $115,822,853 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.18 | $115,822,853 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.18 | $115,822,853 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.18 | $115,822,853 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.18 | $115,822,853 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.18 | $115,822,853 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.17 | $115,822,853 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.17 | $115,822,853 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.17 | $115,822,853 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.17 | $115,822,853 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.17 | $115,822,853 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.17 | $115,822,853 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.17 | $115,822,853 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.17 | $115,822,853 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.17 | $115,822,853 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.17 | $115,822,853 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.17 | $115,822,853 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.17 | $115,822,853 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.17 | $115,822,853 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.17 | $115,822,853 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.17 | $115,822,853 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.17 | $115,822,853 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.17 | $115,822,853 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.17 | $115,822,853 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.17 | $115,822,853 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.17 | $115,822,853 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.17 | $115,822,853 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.17 | $115,822,853 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.17 | $115,822,853 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.17 | $115,822,853 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.17 | $115,822,853 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.17 | $115,822,853 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.