Arcutis Biotherapeutics, Inc. (ARQT)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$23.90+1.01%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ARQT
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $24 ARQT trades at 7.0× p/s, below its 11× p/s peer median, but our blended $12 fair value sits well below the price. We hold it with low confidence: its earnings are too depressed to value on P/E, so we anchor on sales, where it trades at 804.6× its own p/s history. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $6.22 | 21.6 | 0.29 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $18.56 | 18.1 | 1.02 | ntm analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $38.86 | 11.4 | 3.41 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $4.95 | 22.0 | 0.23 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/E | 3Y |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 10% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| $20.49 |
| 18.1 |
| 1.13 |
| Hist. CAGR(prov.) |
| medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $62.60 | 11.4 | 5.50 | guidance | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $22.62 | 18.1 | 1.25 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $69.11 | 11.4 | 6.07 | guidance | medium |