Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Arcutis Biotherapeutics, Inc. (ARQT)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
$27.00-20.70%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.33 → 1.31 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ARQT yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Improve operating income from -$9.1M in 2026-Q1 | The company is working to improve its operating income after a recent loss. | Improving | Operating income remains negative or worsens through FY26 | Operating income: $9.436M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Operating income improves toward breakeven or positive by FY26 end. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 20269,436,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
ARQT is a high-risk growth business, not yet a profitable compounder. Its long-term thesis is intact, supported by strong recent financial performance and progress on ZORYVE, but confidence is medium and the business remains loss-making.
The valuation signal is described as justified, with no fragility flags, and expectations appear aligned with the model. The valuation measure fell notably and the signal softened from favorable to mildly favorable; the peer comparison shows a premium, while model confidence is low.
Near term, recent execution is encouraging: quarterly revenue rose, management raised 2026 sales guidance, and reported regulatory and trial milestones. The main risk is that guidance could be reversed, while the broader industry has a high rate of missed results and elevated risk remains.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis hinges on continued ZORYVE sales growth and delivery against the raised guidance, as well as progress across expanded uses and the pipeline. A guidance cut would damage credibility, while weaker employment data could weigh on healthcare names; continued strength from sector bellwethers would support the sector backdrop.
The multi-year view is supported by stronger sales and management delivery so far, but it remains a loss-making, elevated-risk story with execution and sector risks. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Achieve 2026 revenue of $480M-$495M |
| A primary condition in Arcutis Biotherapeutics, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~$487.5M. |
| Intact |
| Revenue falls below $480M in FY26 |
Revenue: $143.919M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$487.5M. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 2026143,919,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Sustain growth momentum of ZORYVE dermatology drug | Its dermatology drug ZORYVE is driving sales growth. | Intact | ZORYVE sales decline or stall in 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.13 → $1.31 · observed estimates
$0.65B → $0.70B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.13 | $647,230,370 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.13 | $647,230,370 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.13 | $647,230,370 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.08 | $647,092,866 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.13 | $647,230,370 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.13 | $647,230,370 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.13 | $647,230,370 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.13 | $647,230,370 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.13 | $647,230,370 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.13 | $647,230,370 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.13 | $647,230,370 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.08 | $647,092,866 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.13 | $647,230,370 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.13 | $647,230,370 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.19 | $662,584,587 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.24 | $671,393,960 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.24 | $671,393,960 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.24 | $671,393,960 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-11 | $1.30 | $685,518,840 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.30 | $685,518,840 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.30 | $685,518,840 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.19 | $662,584,587 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.19 | $662,584,587 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.19 | $662,584,587 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.19 | $662,584,587 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.19 | $662,584,587 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.19 | $662,584,587 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.19 | $662,584,587 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.29 | $685,518,837 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.29 | $685,518,837 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.29 | $685,518,837 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.29 | $685,518,837 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.29 | $685,518,837 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.29 | $685,518,837 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.29 | $685,518,837 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.29 | $685,518,837 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.29 | $685,518,837 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.29 | $685,518,837 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.29 | $685,518,837 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.29 | $685,518,837 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.29 | $685,518,837 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.29 | $685,518,837 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.29 | $685,518,837 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.29 | $685,518,837 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.29 | $685,518,837 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.29 | $685,518,837 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.29 | $685,518,837 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.29 | $685,518,837 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.29 | $685,518,837 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.29 | $685,518,837 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.29 | $685,518,837 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.29 | $685,518,837 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.29 | $685,518,837 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.29 | $685,518,837 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.29 | $685,518,837 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.33 | $686,921,527 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.33 | $686,921,527 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.33 | $686,921,527 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.33 | $686,921,527 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.33 | $686,921,527 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.33 | $686,921,527 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.33 | $686,921,527 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.33 | $686,921,527 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.33 | $686,921,527 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.33 | $686,921,527 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.33 | $686,921,527 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.33 | $686,921,527 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.33 | $686,921,527 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.33 | $686,921,527 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.33 | $686,921,527 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.33 | $686,921,527 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.33 | $686,921,527 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.33 | $686,921,527 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.33 | $686,921,527 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.33 | $686,921,527 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.33 | $686,921,527 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.33 | $686,921,527 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.32 | $686,921,527 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.32 | $686,921,527 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.32 | $686,921,527 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.32 | $686,921,527 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.32 | $686,921,527 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.32 | $686,921,527 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.32 | $686,921,527 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.32 | $686,921,527 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.32 | $686,921,527 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.26 | $686,804,336 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.26 | $686,804,336 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.26 | $686,804,336 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.31 | $695,691,837 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.31 | $695,691,837 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.31 | $695,691,837 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.31 | $695,691,837 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.31 | $695,691,837 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.31 | $695,691,837 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.31 | $695,691,837 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.31 | $695,691,837 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.31 | $695,691,837 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.31 | $695,691,837 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.31 | $695,691,837 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.31 | $695,691,837 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.31 | $695,691,837 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.31 | $695,691,837 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.31 | $695,691,837 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-05 | $1.31 | $695,691,837 | 5 / 6 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 1 recorded
1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 3 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.