Arcutis Biotherapeutics, Inc. (ARQT)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$23.90+1.01%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ARQT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 92.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 34.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 58.6 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 398 industry peers
ARQT — CEO transition
Dated 2026-08-05
Chief Commercial Officer — L. Todd Edwards: Mr. L. Todd Edwards resigned as Chief Commercial Officer to pursue an external opportunity.
Why it matters: If health care sector revenue growth speeds up, it may help Arcutis. This could improve investor sentiment.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth is speeding up again. It may reach 10% or more.
Worry ifSector revenue growth keeps slowing down. It is now below 10%.
Why it matters: A strong earnings report can help rebuild investor trust. This comes after a recent earnings miss.
Supportive ifQ2 earnings per share were higher than what analysts expected.
Worry ifQ2 earnings per share were lower than what analysts expected.
Why it matters: Keeping positive cash flow shows good financial health. It also helps with future investments.
Supportive ifOperating cash flow remains positive in Q3 2026.
Worry ifOperating cash flow turns negative in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Meeting this revenue target shows strong demand for ZORYVE and effective sales efforts. It confirms management's growth strategy.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 net product revenue reported between $480 million and $495 million.
Worry ifQ2 2026 net product revenue falls below $480 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$173 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $442 loss on $10,000 · 4.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,750 loss on $10,000 · 37.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A successful expansion could help ZORYVE reach more customers. This may increase sales.
Supportive ifThe primary care and pediatric sales team build-out is now complete.
Worry ifThere are delays in expanding the sales team. This slows down commercialization efforts.
Why it matters: A full sales team could help ZORYVE reach more customers and increase revenue.
Supportive ifPrimary care sales team is fully operational by the end of August 2026.
Worry ifPrimary care sales team is not fully operational by the end of August 2026.
Why it matters: This would confirm ongoing strong demand for ZORYVE and support the raised revenue guidance.
Supportive ifZORYVE made over $150 million in Q3. This shows strong demand growth.
Worry ifZORYVE made less than $130 million in Q3. This suggests demand is weakening.
Why it matters: Approval would expand ZORYVE's market and confirm the strength of the pipeline.
Supportive ifFDA approves the sNDA for ZORYVE cream 0.05% for infants.
Worry ifFDA denies the sNDA or delays the decision beyond February 23, 2027.
Why it matters: Strong performance from the new sales team could drive ZORYVE sales and support revenue targets.
Supportive ifSales are growing faster thanks to the new dermatology sales team.
Worry ifSales growth stagnates or declines despite the new sales force.
Why it matters: Good results may show ZORYVE works well for new uses. This could help growth.
Watch forThe vitiligo trial shows big improvement in results.
Also watch forThe vitiligo trial shows no big improvement in results.