Arrow Electronics (ARW)
NYSEInformation TechnologyTechnology DistributorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$215.97+2.42%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologyTechnology DistributorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ARW
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 10 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-06. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $216 ARW trades at 12× p/e, below its 33× p/e peer median. Our $292 fair value sits well above the price. We hold it with low confidence: our number sits above the analyst range and the peer anchor overstates how cheap it looks. Analysts target $175–$260. Note: our $292 fair value sits above the entire analyst range ($175–$260). Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $250.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $140.51 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $851.09 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| graham number | 12M | $231.62 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 25% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$175.00 – $260.00 (median $250.00) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-08-07
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| 12M |
| $307.11 |
| 14.3 |
| 24.06 |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $374.19 | 23.9 | 15.66 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $451.80 | 19.5 | 23.20 | ntm analyst | high |
| PEG | 12M | $322.50 | 18.5 | 17.47 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $161.35 | — | — | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $620.14 | 33.4 | 18.58 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $569.10 | 23.9 | 23.81 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $594.66 | 19.5 | 30.53 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $563.63 | 18.5 | 30.53 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $752.63 | 23.9 | 31.49 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $785.78 | 19.5 | 40.35 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 5Y | $744.78 | 18.5 | 40.35 | Analyst | medium |