Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Arrow Electronics (ARW)
NYSEInformation TechnologyTechnology DistributorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$177.07-12.61%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologyTechnology DistributorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
24.54 → 24.91 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ARW yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EPS at or above $4.42 in Q2 FY2026 | A primary condition in Arrow Electronics's published investment case. The stated target is >= $4.42 per share. | Under Pressure | EPS guidance falls below $4.32 in Q2 FY2026 | Diluted EPS: $5.26 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $4.42 per share. Target period ends 2026-06-30; this observation covers 2026-Q2. Aug 6, 20265.26 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a value-oriented distributor with improving operating momentum, rather than a high-growth technology company. The 1-to-3-year thesis is intact: recent performance is strong, but confidence is medium and management is rated neutral.
The evidence describes ARW as cheap versus peers, with a negative expectations gap, meaning market expectations appear below the model’s view. That model has low confidence, and the valuation tag is justified with low fragility, so the evidence does not point to a clearly fragile setup.
Near-term results have been strong: revenue, gross profit, and Global Components operating income have grown, and management’s stated priorities are on track. Momentum has improved, though recent earnings surprises have been erratic and a prior deep miss makes the next guidance update important. A president transition and recent M&A-related filings add context, but the evidence does not establish their effects on results.
The thesis depends on revenue growth and operating improvement continuing while management avoids a guidance cut. A cut would be a meaningful negative; steady results from sector peers or lower interest rates could ease pressure on technology-related names. The evidence gives limited detail on the effects of the M&A activity and related financial obligation.
For the next 1 to 3 years, ARW’s strong execution and cheap-versus-peers valuation support an intact long-term thesis, but the outlook hinges on guidance and sector conditions. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company keeps improving gross profit and managing costs well. |
| Intact |
| Gross profit falls below $900 million quarterly |
Gross profit: $1.125B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.09 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 6, 20261,125,209,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating income improves to sustain above $360M | Profit rose strongly with operating income doubling to $361.6M. | Intact | Operating income falls below $300 million over next 4 quarters | Operating income: $377.333M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $360 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 6, 2026377,333,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue grows to at least $9.45B in Q2 FY2026 | A primary condition in Arrow Electronics's published investment case. The stated target is >= $9.45 billion. | Under Pressure | Revenue falls below $9.15 billion in Q2 FY2026 | Revenue: $9.992B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $9.45 billion. Target period ends 2026-06-30; this observation covers 2026-Q2. Aug 6, 20269,992,237,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$21.44 → $24.91 · observed estimates
$40.44B → $43.42B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $21.44 | $40,437,881,030 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $21.44 | $40,437,881,030 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $21.44 | $40,437,881,030 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $21.44 | $40,437,881,030 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $21.44 | $40,437,881,030 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $21.44 | $40,437,881,030 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $21.44 | $40,437,881,030 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $21.44 | $40,437,881,030 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $21.44 | $40,437,881,030 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $21.44 | $40,437,881,030 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $21.44 | $40,437,881,030 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $21.44 | $40,437,881,030 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $21.44 | $40,437,881,030 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $21.44 | $40,437,881,030 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | $22.37 | $41,359,368,617 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $22.76 | $42,877,160,770 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $22.76 | $42,877,160,770 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $22.76 | $42,877,160,770 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | $23.93 | $43,166,242,090 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $23.93 | $43,166,242,090 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $23.93 | $43,166,242,090 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $22.37 | $41,359,368,617 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $22.37 | $41,359,368,617 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $22.37 | $41,359,368,617 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $22.37 | $41,359,368,617 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $22.37 | $41,359,368,617 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $22.37 | $41,359,368,617 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $24.54 | $43,077,586,493 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $24.54 | $43,077,586,493 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $24.54 | $43,077,586,493 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $24.54 | $43,077,586,493 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $24.54 | $43,077,586,493 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $24.54 | $43,077,586,493 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $24.54 | $43,077,586,493 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $24.54 | $43,077,586,493 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $24.54 | $43,077,586,493 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $24.54 | $43,077,586,493 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $24.54 | $43,077,586,493 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $24.54 | $43,077,586,493 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $24.54 | $43,077,586,493 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $24.54 | $43,077,586,493 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $24.54 | $43,077,586,493 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $24.54 | $43,077,586,493 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $24.54 | $43,077,586,493 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $24.54 | $43,077,586,493 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $24.54 | $43,077,586,493 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $24.54 | $43,077,586,493 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $24.54 | $43,077,586,493 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $24.54 | $43,077,586,493 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $24.54 | $43,077,586,493 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $24.54 | $43,077,586,493 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $24.54 | $43,077,586,493 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $24.54 | $43,077,586,493 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $24.54 | $43,077,586,493 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $24.54 | $43,077,586,493 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $24.54 | $43,077,586,493 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $24.54 | $43,077,586,493 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $24.54 | $43,077,586,493 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $24.54 | $43,077,586,493 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $24.54 | $43,077,586,493 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $24.54 | $43,077,586,493 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $24.54 | $43,077,586,493 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $24.54 | $43,077,586,493 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $24.54 | $43,077,586,493 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $24.54 | $43,077,586,493 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $24.54 | $43,077,586,493 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $24.54 | $43,077,586,493 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $24.54 | $43,077,586,493 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $24.54 | $43,077,586,493 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $24.54 | $43,077,586,493 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $24.54 | $43,077,586,493 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $24.54 | $43,077,586,493 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $24.54 | $43,077,586,493 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $24.54 | $43,077,586,493 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $24.54 | $43,077,586,493 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $24.54 | $43,077,586,493 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $24.54 | $43,077,586,493 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $24.54 | $43,077,586,493 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $24.54 | $43,077,586,493 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $24.54 | $43,077,586,493 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $24.54 | $43,077,586,493 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $24.54 | $43,077,586,493 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $24.54 | $43,077,586,493 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $24.54 | $43,077,586,493 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $24.54 | $43,077,586,493 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $24.54 | $43,077,586,493 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $24.54 | $43,077,586,493 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $24.54 | $43,077,586,493 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $24.54 | $43,077,586,493 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $24.54 | $43,077,262,153 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $24.54 | $43,077,262,153 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $24.54 | $43,077,262,153 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $24.54 | $43,077,262,153 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $24.54 | $43,077,262,153 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $24.54 | $43,077,262,153 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $24.54 | $43,077,262,153 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $24.91 | $43,424,662,153 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $24.91 | $43,424,662,153 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $24.91 | $43,424,662,153 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $24.91 | $43,424,662,153 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $24.91 | $43,424,662,153 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $24.91 | $43,424,662,153 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $24.91 | $43,424,662,153 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $24.91 | $43,424,662,153 | 3 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.