Arrow Electronics (ARW)
NYSEInformation TechnologyTechnology DistributorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$215.97+2.42%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologyTechnology DistributorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ARW
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -26.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 14.7% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 40.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 4 industry peers
ARW — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation Under an Off-Balan…
Dated 2026-09-04
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation Under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The disclosures set forth in
Why it matters: A drop below this level could signal weakening demand in a key segment.
Worry ifQ3 Global Components sales guidance of less than $7.50 billion.
Less concerning ifQ3 Global Components sales guidance of $7.50 billion or higher.
Why it matters: This guidance will indicate if Arrow can recover ECS sales growth. It is critical for overall revenue.
Supportive ifGlobal ECS sales guidance meets or exceeds $2.20 billion.
Worry ifGlobal ECS sales guidance falls below $2.10 billion.
Why it matters: A drop in cash flow may signal operational issues. It could impact future investments and shareholder returns.
Worry ifCash flow from operations was below $700 million.
Less concerning ifCash flow from operations was above $800 million.
Why it matters: Keeping this growth shows strong demand. It also shows good market position in components.
Supportive ifGlobal Components sales reported to grow above 35% year over year.
Worry ifGlobal Components sales grew less than 35% from last year.
Why it matters: A strong book-to-bill ratio shows future revenue growth and steady demand for Arrow.
Watch forBook-to-bill ratio is above 1.0.
Also watch forBook-to-bill ratio drops below 1.0.
Why it matters: A drop may show pressure on profits due to rising costs.
Worry ifNet income per share guidance of less than $4.72.
Less concerning ifNet income per share guidance of $4.72 or higher.
Why it matters: Meeting or exceeding this guidance shows Arrow's strong growth momentum. It reflects ongoing demand and effective execution.
Supportive ifQ3 sales were $9.60 billion or more.
Worry ifQ3 sales were less than $9.60 billion.
Why it matters: Growth below this amount could show problems with cost management and efficiency.
Worry ifOperating income growth was below 34% compared to last year.
Less concerning ifOperating income growth was above 34% compared to last year.
Why it matters: Earnings per share guidance shows if Arrow can keep making money. Strong guidance means success.
Supportive ifEarnings per share guidance meets or exceeds $4.72.
Worry ifEarnings per share guidance falls below $4.72.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow shows good operations and financial health. This is important for growth.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations exceeds $318 million.
Worry ifCash flow from operations falls below $318 million.
Why it matters: This would indicate a slowdown in a segment that has shown weaker performance recently.
Worry ifGlobal ECS sales growth of less than 8% year over year.
Less concerning ifGlobal ECS sales growth of 8% or more year over year.
Why it matters: Better operating income margins would show that Arrow can control costs and make more money.
Supportive ifOperating income margin improves from 3.5% to 4% or higher in Q2 2026.
Worry ifOperating income margin is still below 3.5% in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Changes in currency can greatly impact earnings and sales growth.
Watch forChanges in foreign currencies increase sales by more than $117 million.
Also watch forChanges in foreign currencies decrease sales by more than $27 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$173 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $310 loss on $10,000 · 3.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,119 loss on $10,000 · 21.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.