Arrow Electronics (ARW)
NYSEInformation TechnologyTechnology DistributorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$177.07-12.61%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologyTechnology DistributorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ARW
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -31.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 17.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 49.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 3 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ARW — President transition
Dated 2026-10-15
President, Global Enterprise Computing Solutions — Eric Nowak: The filing announces the planned retirement of a senior division president with a named successor and transition period, indicating an orderly succession rather than a sudden loss of leadership.
Why it matters: Arrow's Q3 EPS range is $4.83 to $5.03. A result above the top would extend two quarters of results above guidance.
Supportive ifQ3 non-GAAP EPS is above $5.03, the top of the guided range.
Worry ifQ3 non-GAAP EPS is below $4.83, the low end of the guided range.
Why it matters: Components sales grew 39% in Q2. The Q3 outlook implies growth of 35% to 42% from a year ago, making it a clear test of demand.
Supportive ifQ3 Global Components sales are at least $7.50 billion, the low end of guidance, or grow at least 35% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 Global Components sales fall below $7.50 billion or grow less than 30% year over year.
Why it matters: Arrow named Eric Nowak as successor to the retiring ECS president. The handoff matters as ECS sales rise but its Q2 operating income falls.
Watch forArrow completes the handoff. A later filing or earnings report shows ECS sales growth and operating income above the prior year.
Also watch forA filing reports a delayed or changed handoff. Later results show ECS operating income falling further from the prior year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$180 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $322 loss on $10,000 · 3.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,744 loss on $10,000 · 17.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.