Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Assembly Biosciences Inc (ASMB)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$20.00+0.65%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ASMB yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain cash runway into late 2027 | Assembly Biosciences has extended its cash runway into late 2027 with $215 million raised in stock offerings. | Intact | Cash runway shortens to before late 2027 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
ASMB is a speculative clinical-development company, not an established earnings compounder, since it remains loss-making. The long-term thesis is intact, though its signal has eased from favorable to mildly favorable and confidence in the assessment is medium.
The evidence labels ASMB cheap versus peers, but the valuation model has low confidence and the company is loss-making, which limits what that comparison can show. The priced-in assessment is tagged as justified, with no fragility flags, so the evidence does not point to unusually fragile expectations.
Near-term results have been strong, including reported earnings beats, while cash increased and the projected runway extended into 2029. Over the multi-year view, progress depends on advancing ABI-6250 trials and deciding by year-end 2026 whether to opt into the herpesvirus program with Gilead; losses and elevated risk remain. A guidance cut or worsening employment data could weigh on the near-term business backdrop.
The favorable case depends on ABI-6250 reaching its stated Phase 2 milestones and management maintaining the extended cash runway. The unfavorable case includes a guidance cut or further weakening employment data; continued strength from healthcare sector bellwethers could support the sector backdrop.
For the next 1 to 3 years, ASMB’s thesis rests on turning clinical milestones and available funding into durable progress, while accepting ongoing losses and elevated execution risk. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company reported earnings beats in recent quarters, showing operational progress. |
| Intact |
| EPS falls below 0 USD per share in FY 2026 |
Diluted EPS: $-0.20 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= 0.14 USD per share in FY 2026. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 13, 2026-0.2 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Effective management and talent retention | A supporting condition in Assembly Biosciences Inc's published investment case. The stated target is Smooth executive transitions and implementation of bonus plan in 2026. | Intact | Disruptive executive turnover or failure to implement bonus plan | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stabilize or grow revenue after 2026 | A primary condition in Assembly Biosciences Inc's published investment case. The stated target is Revenue decline less than 10% YoY after FY 2026. | Broken | Revenue declines more than 10% YoY after FY 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-2.10 → $-3.05 · observed estimates
$0.03B → $0.04B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-2.10 | $32,250,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-2.10 | $32,250,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-2.10 | $32,250,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-2.10 | $32,250,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-2.10 | $32,250,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-2.10 | $32,250,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-2.10 | $32,250,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-2.10 | $32,250,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-2.10 | $32,250,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-3.21 | $43,000,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-2.10 | $32,250,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-2.10 | $32,250,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-2.10 | $32,250,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-2.10 | $32,250,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-3.21 | $43,000,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-2.10 | $32,250,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-2.10 | $32,250,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-2.10 | $32,250,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | $-2.10 | $32,250,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-2.10 | $32,250,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-2.10 | $32,250,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-3.21 | $43,000,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-3.21 | $43,000,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-3.21 | $43,000,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-3.21 | $43,000,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-3.21 | $43,000,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-3.21 | $43,000,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-3.24 | $43,000,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-3.24 | $43,000,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-3.24 | $43,000,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-3.24 | $43,000,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-3.24 | $43,000,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-3.24 | $43,000,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-3.24 | $43,000,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-3.24 | $43,000,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-3.24 | $43,000,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-3.24 | $43,000,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-3.24 | $43,000,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-3.24 | $43,000,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-3.39 | $43,000,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-3.06 | $43,000,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-3.06 | $43,000,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-3.06 | $43,000,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-3.06 | $43,000,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-3.06 | $43,000,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-3.06 | $43,000,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-3.06 | $43,000,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-3.06 | $43,000,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-3.06 | $43,000,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-3.05 | $42,650,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-3.05 | $42,650,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-3.05 | $42,650,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-3.05 | $42,650,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-3.05 | $42,650,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-3.05 | $42,650,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-3.05 | $42,650,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-3.05 | $42,650,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-3.05 | $42,650,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-3.05 | $42,650,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-3.05 | $42,650,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-3.05 | $42,650,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-3.05 | $42,650,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-3.05 | $42,650,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-3.05 | $42,650,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-3.05 | $42,650,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-3.05 | $42,650,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-3.05 | $42,650,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-3.05 | $42,650,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-3.05 | $42,650,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-3.05 | $42,650,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-3.05 | $42,650,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-3.05 | $42,650,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-3.05 | $42,650,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-3.05 | $42,650,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-3.05 | $42,650,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-3.05 | $42,650,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-3.05 | $42,650,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-3.05 | $42,650,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-3.05 | $42,650,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-3.05 | $42,650,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-3.05 | $42,650,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-3.05 | $42,650,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-3.05 | $42,650,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-3.05 | $42,650,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-3.05 | $42,650,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-3.05 | $42,650,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-3.05 | $42,650,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-3.05 | $42,650,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-3.05 | $42,650,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-3.05 | $42,650,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-3.05 | $42,650,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-3.05 | $42,650,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-3.05 | $42,650,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-3.05 | $42,650,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-3.05 | $42,650,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-3.05 | $42,650,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-3.05 | $42,650,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-3.05 | $42,650,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-3.05 | $42,650,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-3.05 | $42,650,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-3.05 | $42,650,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-3.05 | $42,650,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-3.05 | $42,650,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-3.05 | $42,650,000 | 3 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 9, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.