Assertio Holdings Inc (ASRT)
NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-09-04
$23.500.00%
Close 2026-06-17 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ASRT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -60.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 15.2% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 75.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has erratic recent earnings surprises and is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate). A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 24 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ASRT — M&A activity — As a result of Purchaser’s acceptance for
Dated 2026-06-16
As a result of Purchaser’s acceptance for payment of all Shares that were validly tendered and not validly withdrawn in accordance with the terms of the Offer, on June 16, 2026, a change of control of the Company occurred. As a result of the consummation of the Merger pursuant to Section 251(h) of the DGCL at the Effective Time, the Company became a wholly owned subsidiary of Parent. Parent and Purchaser have immediately available to them, through a variety of sources, including cash on hand…
Why it matters: A successful buyback can improve share value and show confidence in the company's future.
Supportive ifThe share buyback program is complete. The market reacted positively.
Worry ifNo progress on the buyback or negative market response to the announcement.
Why it matters: The stockholder response shows they trust the merger's value and future plans.
Watch forMost stockholders give their shares. This shows they approve of the merger terms.
Also watch forMany stockholders reject the tender offer. This shows they are not satisfied.
Why it matters: New acquisitions can drive growth and validate management's strategy. It shows they are active in the market.
Supportive ifLook for news of a strategic acquisition worth more than $10M.
Worry ifNo acquisitions announced in the next six months.
Why it matters: How many shareholders join the tender offer shows trust in the merger and future.
Watch forMost shareholders tender their shares by the deadline.
Also watch forA small number of shareholders tender their shares. This shows doubt.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$69 on $10,000 · ±0.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $433 loss on $10,000 · 4.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,796 loss on $10,000 · 38.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Completing the merger will make Assertio a fully-owned part of Zydus. This will affect future operations.
Supportive ifThe merger closes as planned in the second quarter of 2026 without delays.
Worry ifDelays or issues happen, pushing the merger past Q2 2026.
Why it matters: The number of shareholders who accept the tender offer shows their trust in the merger.
Watch forMore than 50% of stockholders will tender their shares by the deadline.
Also watch forLess than 30% of stockholders tender their shares by the same deadline.
Why it matters: If healthcare revenue growth picks up, it could help Assertio's performance. The sector is currently in a maturing phase.
Supportive ifHealthcare sector revenue growth rises back toward 10% year over year.
Worry ifHealthcare sector revenue growth continues to slow below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Competing offers could change the merger and impact shareholder value.
Watch forA new competing offer emerges that exceeds $23.50 per share.
Also watch forNo competing offers are made before the merger closes.
Why it matters: Acquisitions can drive growth and improve market position. They are key to the company's growth strategy.
Supportive ifThe company announced a new acquisition. It fits well with their goals.
Worry ifThere will be no announcements or failed acquisitions in the next few months.
Why it matters: Acquisitions can drive growth and improve market position. Progress here is crucial for future success.
Watch forA new acquisition announcement that adds a lot of value.
Also watch forNo new acquisitions announced. Management says there are challenges in getting them.
Why it matters: The repurchase right affects how convertible note holders act after the merger. It shows how much investors trust the new setup.
Watch forMany holders use their repurchase right on July 17, 2026.
Also watch forFew or no holders use their repurchase right. This shows a lack of confidence.
Why it matters: Finishing the tender offer will show if the merger is successful. It will confirm Zydus ownership.
Supportive ifMost shares are tendered and accepted by Zydus. This confirms the merger.
Worry ifA small number of shares are tendered. This raises doubts about the merger.
Why it matters: Better cash flow shows the company is efficient. It shows financial health after the merger.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations is over $8.56 million. This shows continued improvement.
Worry ifCash flow from operations is below $8.56 million. This shows there are problems.