AmeriServ Financial Inc (ASRV)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-05
$4.88+2.31%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ASRV
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -30.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 8.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 38.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 231 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ASRV — dividend update
Dated 2026-10-20
Other events. On October 20, 2026, the Registrant issued a press release announcing that its Board of Directors declared a $0.03 per share quarterly common stock cash dividend. The cash dividend is payable November 16, 2026 to shareholders of record on November 2, 2026. The press release, attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1, is incorporated herein.
Why it matters: Net interest income is about 72% of revenue. A margin above the nine-month 3.34% level would extend a key earnings gain.
Supportive ifQ4 2026 net interest margin is above 3.34%, and net interest income is higher year over year.
Worry ifQ4 2026 net interest margin falls below 3.34%, or net interest income falls year over year.
Why it matters: Loan payoffs, led by commercial real estate, exceeded new lending. Further loan declines could weigh on loan income.
Supportive ifA later quarterly report shows average loans are flat or higher than a year ago. Originations match or exceed payoffs.
Worry ifAverage loans fall more than 4% year over year again, as payoffs continue to exceed originations.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$196 on $10,000 · ±2.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $389 loss on $10,000 · 3.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,042 loss on $10,000 · 20.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.