AmeriServ Financial Inc (ASRV)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$5.06-0.20%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ASRV
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -26.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 8.3% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 35.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 220 industry peers
ASRV — dividend update
Dated 2026-07-21
Other events. On July 21, 2026, the Registrant issued a press release announcing that its Board of Directors declared a $0.03 per share quarterly common stock cash dividend. The cash dividend is payable August 17, 2026 to shareholders of record on August 3, 2026. The press release, attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1, is incorporated herein.
Why it matters: Higher operating income means the company is becoming more efficient. This is important for growth.
Supportive ifOperating income increases from $2.22M in Q1 2026, continuing the trend from Q4 2025.
Worry ifIf operating income goes down or stays the same, the company may be losing strength.
Why it matters: Stable non-performing loans mean good asset quality. This shows strong risk management.
Supportive ifNon-performing loans remain at or below 0.76% of total loans in Q3.
Worry ifNon-performing loans rise above 0.78% of total loans in Q3.
Why it matters: Growth in total deposits shows strong customer confidence. It also shows good business efforts. This helps liquidity.
Supportive ifTotal deposits grow more than 2.4% year over year in Q3 2026.
Worry ifTotal deposits grow less than 2.0% year over year in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A decline in sector revenue growth may mean problems for AmeriServ Financial.
Worry ifSector revenue growth falls below the median of 15%.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above the median of 15%.
Why it matters: Fewer loans may mean less demand or problems with credit quality.
Worry ifTotal average loans decline more than 4.4% in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifTotal average loans stabilize or grow in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Higher non-interest income shows good performance in wealth management. This helps revenue grow.
Supportive ifNon-interest income growth exceeds 11.5% year over year in Q3 2026.
Worry ifNon-interest income growth falls below 3.9% year over year in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A recovery in credit losses shows improved asset quality. This can lead to better earnings and lower risk.
Supportive ifIn Q3 2026, there was a recovery for credit losses.
Worry ifProvision for credit losses increases in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: An increase in the net interest margin shows effective balance sheet management. This can lead to higher earnings.
Supportive ifNet interest margin exceeds 3.34% in Q3 2026.
Worry ifNet interest margin falls below 3.30% in Q3 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$129 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $359 loss on $10,000 · 3.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $941 loss on $10,000 · 9.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.