Reading ASTE? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ASTE free→Reading ASTE? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ASTE free→NASDAQIndustrialsFarm & Heavy Construction MachinerySnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, while risk is elevated and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, ASTE trades below typical levels. Peer multiples imply a price about 26% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $51.37. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $51 ASTE trades at 17× p/e, below its 23× p/e peer median. Our $69 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 26% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 8%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
Over the trailing year it converted 3.16x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated robust grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.05 → $1.08 (+2.5% / 30d). 3 raised, 0 cut, 4 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$177.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$339.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,784.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation label changed from 'inexpensive' to 'fair'.
Valuation changed. It rose from "inexpensive" to "fair." Risk is elevated. The sector backdrop is a headwind.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A growing backlog shows strong future demand for Astec's products.
Confirms:Backlog increases year over year by more than 36.4%.
Disproves:Backlog growth slows to less than 20% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ASTE yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 6, 2026, Astec Industries, Inc. (the "Company") reported results of operations for the three months ended March 31, 2026. A copy of that press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ASTE Astec Industries, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 29 of 100 | fair | elevated |
CAT Caterpillar Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 53 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
CMI Cummins | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 42 of 100 | full | moderate |
PCAR Paccar | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 39 of 100 | fair | low |
WAB Wabtec | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 68 of 100 | full | low |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1113).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Astec aims to maintain its full year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance in the $170 million to $190 million range.
Astec continues to prioritize improving cash flow, as evidenced by increased operating cash flow.
Astec aims to enhance its gross profit margin through operational improvements.
The company is committed to maintaining its dividend payout to shareholders.
Why it matters: Changes in leadership can change company plans and results. Watching this will show shifts.
Confirms one read:Look for positive changes or news from new president Chad Hartley after May 11.
Confirms the other:Watch for negative changes or no clear direction after the transition.
Why it matters: Better cash flow helps support growth and financial stability.
Confirms:Operating cash flow exceeds $40 million in Q2.
Disproves:Operating cash flow falls below $30 million in Q2.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows support for shareholders. A steady payout can help investor trust.
Confirms:Dividend per share stays at $0.13 in Q2. This shows management's commitment.
Disproves:Dividend per share is lowered from $0.13. This may mean financial trouble.
Why it matters: A better gross profit margin is key for Astec's profits. It shows better cost control.
Confirms:Gross profit margin goes up from Q1. This shows good cost management.
Disproves:Gross profit margin drops or stays the same. This shows ongoing cost issues.
Group President – Infrastructure Solutions — Chad Hartley: Mr. Snyman's departure and Mr. Hartley's external hire as Group President – Infrastructure Solutions.