Reading ASTI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ASTI free→Reading ASTI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ASTI free→NASDAQInformation TechnologySolarSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but risk is high, and compared with sector peers, ASTI is below typical. The sector backdrop is a tailwind, which may help the company. Peer multiples imply a price about 205% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $6.79. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $6.79, ASTI's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 90× p/s (24.6× the 4× p/s peer median). At a normal multiple the price implies ~205% near-term growth vs our ~77% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $12 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 205% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 77%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated weak grew net income 63% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=2777).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.88x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
10 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1040).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.00 → $-0.19. 0 raised, 0 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$590.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$1,381.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $6,208.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Company momentum rose by 16.9 points (from -63.6 to -46.7).
Signal changed from 'restrictive' to 'cautious'.
Valuation changed. It rose to "expensive" from "inexpensive." Risk remained high. Earnings quality is loss-making. The sector backdrop is a tailwind.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
No named catalysts to watch right now. Check back after the next earnings report.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ASTI yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry Into a Material Definitive Agreement. Private Placement On January 23, 2026, Ascent Solar Technologies, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into a securities purchase agreement (the “Purchase Agreement”) with certain institutional and accredited investors (the “Investors”) for the issuance and sale in a private placement (the “Private Placement”) of (i) 454,546 shares (the “Shares”) of the Company’s common stock, par value $0.0001 per share (the “Common Stock”), (ii) pre-funded warrants (“Pre-…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ASTI ASCENT SOLAR TECHNOLOGIES INC | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 1 of 100 | inexpensive | high |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
No qualifying priorities for this snapshot. Check back after the next refresh.
Other Events. On January 26, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing the Private Placement. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is hereby incorporated by reference herein.
Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities. The information contained in
Entry Into a Material Definitive Agreement. On December 31, 2025, the Company entered into new employment agreements with Paul Warley, Chief Executive Officer, Bobby Gulati, Chief Operations Officer, and Jin Jo, Chief Financial Officer. These agreements replace the prior employment agreements with these executives that expired on December 31, 2025. The terms of these new agreements are summarized below.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers: Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officer; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Item 5.02e Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers The employment agreements are effective on January 1, 2026. The employment agreements provide the following: Mr. Warley will receive an annual base salary of $450,000 and will be eligible for a discretionary annual incentive bonus of up to 150% of this base salary if the targets are achieved.…