AST SPACEMOBILE INC (ASTS)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyTelecommunications ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$62.31+0.29%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyTelecommunications ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ASTS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -6.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 100.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 106.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 23 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ASTS — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-10
and in Exhibit 99.1 shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (“Exchange Act”) or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933 or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Why it matters: Confirming the revenue guidance of $150M-$200M shows strong business momentum. It indicates the company is on track to meet its growth targets.
Supportive ifManagement says the revenue guidance for 2026 is still the same. This will be discussed in the next earnings call.
Worry ifManagement cut the revenue forecast for 2026. It is now below $150 million.
Why it matters: Revenue growth before service activation can show strong demand in the market.
Supportive ifRevenue growth of at least 10% quarter over quarter leading up to the service launch.
Worry ifRevenue growth remains flat or declines as the service launch approaches.
Why it matters: Confirming the $150M-$200M revenue guidance shows strong demand and execution. It impacts investor confidence.
Supportive ifRevenue for Q3 2026 meets or exceeds $37.5 million, indicating a strong ramp.
Worry ifIf Q3 2026 revenue is less than $37.5 million, there may be problems.
Why it matters: The launch of BlueBird satellites is key to expanding AST's network. It shows progress in their satellite deployment strategy.
Supportive ifSuccessful launch of BlueBird 14, 15, and 16 as scheduled in early 2027.
Worry ifDelays in the launch schedule for BlueBird satellites beyond early 2027.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$457 on $10,000 · ±4.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $1,108 loss on $10,000 · 11.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,015 loss on $10,000 · 60.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: New partnerships can help reach more customers and support the business model.
Supportive ifThey announced new partnerships with more MNOs that cover over 500 million subscribers.
Worry ifNo new partnerships announced next quarter, which shows no growth.
Why it matters: The Notes Offering affects AST's money management and structure. It can change future growth plans.
Watch forThe $1.0 billion Notes Offering is complete. There was strong demand from big investors.
Also watch forWeak demand leads to a cancellation or reduction in the size of the Notes Offering.
Why it matters: Launching beta services is important for customer engagement. It shows the network is ready.
Supportive ifBeta services will start with key partners.
Worry ifDelay in beta service launch beyond the expected timeline.
Why it matters: Buying back notes shows good use of money. It can make finances stronger.
Supportive ifManagement says they bought more convertible senior notes. This is beyond the $296.5 million already done.
Worry ifNo new repurchases are announced or planned.
Why it matters: New partners can help make more money and grow AST SpaceMobile's market.
Supportive ifNew partnerships were announced. They grow the ecosystem beyond the current 60 partners.
Worry ifNo new partnerships announced, or current partnerships end.
Why it matters: The launch of BlueBird satellites is key for network growth. Success will help with growth plans and partnerships.
Supportive ifIf BlueBird 8, 9, and 10 launch successfully, it proves the satellite plan works.
Worry ifIf any BlueBird satellite fails to launch, it raises worries. This is about the company's ability to operate.
Why it matters: A drop in sector growth could impact ASTS's revenue potential and market position.
Worry ifSector revenue growth reported below its median.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above its median.
Why it matters: Meeting the revenue guidance shows strong demand and execution in the market.
Supportive ifQuarterly revenue reaches at least $37.5 million in Q3 and Q4 to stay on track.
Worry ifQuarterly revenue falls below $30 million in either Q3 or Q4.
Why it matters: Starting beta services is key for testing the network. It helps attract business partners and shows the technology is ready.
Supportive ifBeta services will start with key MNO partners as planned in 2026.
Worry ifThe beta service launch is delayed past 2026. This may show possible operational problems.