AST SPACEMOBILE INC (ASTS)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyTelecommunications ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$35.62-4.12%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyTelecommunications ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ASTS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -60.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 100.0% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 160.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 9 industry peers
ASTS — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-10
and in Exhibit 99.1 shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (“Exchange Act”) or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933 or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Why it matters: The early selection points to a possible large source of government funds. A final award would set a clear program.
Supportive ifJapan MIC confirms a final J-LEO award to the Rakuten and AST joint venture. Its value is near the stated $1 billion ceiling.
Worry ifJapan MIC does not confirm the selection, or the joint venture loses the award or receives no funding.
Why it matters: Shipping these satellites is a near-term step toward the larger launch plan. Delays could slow network growth.
Worry ifThe company confirms BlueBirds 14, 15, and 16 have shipped, with no delay to the stated launch campaign.
Less concerning ifThe company reports these satellites have not shipped, or moves the launch campaign beyond early 2027.
Why it matters: Management has kept its 2026 revenue range at $150 million to $200 million. Missing the floor would break that plan.
Worry ifFull-year 2026 revenue is below $150 million, or management cuts the range below that level.
Less concerning ifFull-year 2026 revenue reaches at least $150 million and stays within the stated range.
Why it matters: A live beta would show that the growing satellite network can serve partner users. A delay would leave this step unproven.
Supportive ifThe company confirms beta service began in 2026. It had at least one strategic MNO partner and activated digital cells.
Worry ifThe company says beta service did not start in 2026, or reports no partner beta launch by year-end.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$365 on $10,000 · ±3.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $1,108 loss on $10,000 · 11.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $7,324 loss on $10,000 · 73.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Second-quarter revenue was $31.5 million, and management said the 2026 ramp was on plan. The next report can test that progress.
Watch forOn November 9, the company reports revenue above $31.5 million and keeps its $150 million to $200 million 2026 range.
Also watch forOn November 9, revenue is at or below $31.5 million and management cuts its 2026 range below $150 million.